bosco
Full time employment: Posting here.
- Joined
- Jul 10, 2005
- Messages
- 987
to clarify my previous post, I did not mean to imply that the Firecalc data series did not include any periods of war, bank failures, etc. Rather that nothing since the advent of Firecalc data approaches the level of catastrophe found on other continents, yet said catastrophes COULD happen in North America. The flip side of the shrinking world and globalization is more vulnerability. For example, what if a biological toxin were released and spread rampantly, or a nasty pandemic occurred?
Although the US has participated in several wars, none has occurred on home turf since the civil war. But think war of 1812--the US had the stuffing knocked out of it and Washington DC was sacked. Do any of us believe our portfolios would flourish in the event of a homeland invasion, or Germany-style inflation?
I think Bernstein's point is that some things can't be ancitipated or avoided, and therefore the difference between, say 90% and 100% survivability in Firecalc is more an illusion than anything in the face of greater uncertainties. I also think his references to other countries and events were by way of qualitative example, not offered to bolster his argument statistically.
Although the US has participated in several wars, none has occurred on home turf since the civil war. But think war of 1812--the US had the stuffing knocked out of it and Washington DC was sacked. Do any of us believe our portfolios would flourish in the event of a homeland invasion, or Germany-style inflation?
I think Bernstein's point is that some things can't be ancitipated or avoided, and therefore the difference between, say 90% and 100% survivability in Firecalc is more an illusion than anything in the face of greater uncertainties. I also think his references to other countries and events were by way of qualitative example, not offered to bolster his argument statistically.