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Old 08-17-2009, 06:12 PM   #101
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But what if she was Wong?
That's the best laugh I've had today--thanks!!!
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Old 08-17-2009, 10:28 PM   #102
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But if it pays off, I can sell high and end up with all G Fund in my TSP like before, but more of it.
good thing we have no dirty market timers on this board!

That's ok--last Thursday I sold about 15% of everything for no particularly good reason rebalanced. Total unexuberant irrationality. I had been overexposed to equities, and felt it was time to trim back. Since I had ridden the horse straight down into last March, I was reluctant to trim back, but last week I decided it was time. Based on a bad feeling about the future exhaustive analysis.

I keep telling myself--I was rebalancing, not market timing. I'll say it 3 times and click my heels together........maybe it will work for me
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Old 08-17-2009, 10:38 PM   #103
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I did not even trade rebalance. However, I have admitted many posts ago that I am a CMT ("Clean Market Timer"). The reason was that I was 80% in equities in mid 2008 when I joined this forum and decided to sell down to 50%. The market tanking took me down to 40%, when I decided to up it to 60% earlier this year.

I call myself a CMT because my action was clearly market timing, yet I have not seen a definition of "Dirty". So, I reserve the right to call myself "Clean" because it sounds nicer, until it is proven otherwise.
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Old 08-20-2009, 11:58 AM   #104
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Years ago I took a Chinese cooking class and Mrs. Wong told us the secret to good rice is to just ignore it and I have found this also works with the market . Most of my tweaking has not had positive results with rice or the market .

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Old 08-20-2009, 12:34 PM   #105
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I don't think she meant to ignore it for this long but I could be Wong !
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Old 08-20-2009, 12:37 PM   #106
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Whoooo I am impressed!
But I'll betcha this move pays off for you in the long run.
So far, it is even paying off in the short run! For now, anyway. I am up almost $2,000 from what my account balance otherwise would have been, yesterday. And today the market is up as well. Who knows what the future will bring, but it seems like we have been in the middle of a rising market for five months and may have a few months to go.
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Old 08-20-2009, 05:42 PM   #107
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My friend was moderating a scientific meeting in which a paper was presented by authors Lee Wong and Sarah Wight. He wanted so much to have them stand next to each and ask the audience whether they could tell Wight from Wong.
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Old 08-20-2009, 06:48 PM   #108
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So far, it is even paying off in the short run! For now, anyway. I am up almost $2,000 from what my account balance otherwise would have been, yesterday. And today the market is up as well. Who knows what the future will bring, but it seems like we have been in the middle of a rising market for five months and may have a few months to go.
Cooooooooooooool.
I managed to catch a relative low for my startup of VHDYX in March and a very low number of CELG stocks I bought just for fun. I had been eyeing VHDYX for quite a while, but didn't move on it until my sprouting green onions told me to.
This is the stock MF that is getting the majority of my DCA these days. It's a young fund, but starting up a stake in it is part of my gradual plan to get some of my portfolio away from purely growth stocks to more solid dividend earners. Little by little...
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Old 08-21-2009, 08:49 AM   #109
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Dang! Another up day in the market? Seriously? Dow 7000 where are you? I'm trying to buy stuff cheap here. You traders know N Korea and Iran are still scary and the world might end at anytime, right? You know there are tens of millions unemployed here in the US, right? You know millions are facing foreclosure and banks are losing their assets, right? Why must you continue your upward march, vexed market? Why?
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Old 08-21-2009, 09:11 AM   #110
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Up a total of $2,500 today. Let's see, ($2500 x .04)/12 = $8.33 extra every month for the rest of my life. That's real money already. And the Dow is up 122 points already this morning so who knows, tonight it might be even higher.

But then, next week it could be down. One would think it might respond to the end of Cash for Clunkers.
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Old 08-21-2009, 10:33 AM   #111
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Well, we're doing our part. Right now we're in Knoxville TN trying to get the tires we really want. You have to replace tires every 5 years on motorhomes. Had to special order these and call Goodyear directly (again!) to make sure they made them available to the local distributor. Have to wait another week for them. Lots to do around here so no problem.

$475 a piece! (includes install) and need 6 of them! Like I said - we're doing our part to help the economy.

Audrey
As a Goodyear stockholder, I thank you for your patronage. I bought some Goodyear stock (GT) earlier this year. Also some Exide (XIDE) too. Of course I am kicking myself for not buying more. Heck, why didn't I put the whole portfolio in these stocks?

What propels the market today is the news that existing home sales were up more than expected. I seriously doubt if the Cash-for-clunker program would have much effect. Disgusting as it is, after a trillion in bailout, this only involved dropping a few more billion from helicopters. How much of it stays here is anyone's guess, but last night Honda and Toyota stocks dropped 2-3% due to the news of this CFC ending. Not that I have anything against car makers, but it makes you wonder if we are stimulating the entire world economy here.
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Old 08-21-2009, 12:11 PM   #112
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Up a total of $2,500 today. Let's see, ($2500 x .04)/12 = $8.33 extra every month for the rest of my life. That's real money already. And the Dow is up 122 points already this morning so who knows, tonight it might be even higher.

Whatever you do W2R, do not say the *Wh---* word.

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Old 08-21-2009, 12:29 PM   #113
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Whatever you do W2R, do not say the *Wh---* word.

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OK!! Not time yet, anyway.
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Old 08-21-2009, 12:46 PM   #114
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Whatever you do W2R, do not say the *Wh---* word.

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Wheeeeeeee? I just said it 3 times over, hopefully we can see a nice 1000 pt drop. 10% off sale anyone? No takers?
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Old 08-21-2009, 12:53 PM   #115
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How much of it stays here is anyone's guess, but last night Honda and Toyota stocks dropped 2-3% due to the news of this CFC ending. Not that I have anything against car makers, but it makes you wonder if we are stimulating the entire world economy here.
A high proportion of Toyota and Hondas sold here in the US are made here. And on top of that, I (and many other US citizens and residents) own a lot of Toyota and Honda through my Vanguard Pacific Index fund and my Total International Fund and other international investments. VPACX currently holds more than 5% of their fund assets in Toyota and Honda stock (the #1 and #4 top holdings). Part of the stimulus flowing to the "Japanese" car companies flows right back into my own pockets as a shareholder.
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Old 08-21-2009, 04:40 PM   #116
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It's good that some of the "helidrop" money got recaptured. Still, what is the percentage of American stock ownership of these companies? It doesn't change my view that the cash-for-clunker is just a political ploy.

Despite the market movement, what keeps me from jumping up and down yelling "Wh..." is this kind of just released news: California unemployment went from 11.6% last month to 11.9% now. Add to that the illegal aliens who helped build the McMansions and who now could not claim any unemployment, and I can picture how bad it really is.

Towards the end of the year, we better see some business hiring, or we will be sliding down the septic tank again.
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Old 08-21-2009, 11:28 PM   #117
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It's good that some of the "helidrop" money got recaptured. Still, what is the percentage of American stock ownership of these companies? It doesn't change my view that the cash-for-clunker is just a political ploy.
The clunker money was spread out like horse manure fertilizer is spread over a field. Little bits and pieces go to this person and that entity. A few chunks fly overseas. The trickle down effect is more like a watered down effect.

My dad just got a Camry tonight with a cash for clunker trade in. He really didn't save any money. The time constraints meant very little time to negotiate a good price. He felt he had to take whatever they had on the lot, so he paid a couple grand for upgrades he didn't care about or wanted to NOT have on the car (keyless entry was one). And they refused to give any money for the salvage value. In the end, they could have walked in off the street sans clunker and paid about the same thing for the car they actually wanted.

So the dealer made a little bit, my dad got a slightly higher value car for a little less, the manufacturer gets to make one more car, and the car salesman gets a fat commission check. Eventually some of this money trickles down somewhere.

Agreed on the political ploy. This clunkers law appears to have done very little long term. And it has been hideously poorly implemented.
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Old 08-22-2009, 02:27 PM   #118
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I kept hearing how CFC has been a "successful" program from TV reporters and various politicians. Gee! Recently, there was a delirious man who threw money on a California Highway, and people rushed out to grab it. I guess that man was wildly successful. Note that it was his own money.

Man Causes Traffic Jam By Throwing Cash Onto Highway | NewsOne

As an RV'er wannabe, I am still waiting for an RV-for-clunker program. I would think RVs are mostly produced domestically, yes?

Perhaps the gummint will make up for me the difference between a gas motorhome and a diesel one, as the latter is "greener". Sorry for the rant, but an RV subsidy would be an important matter to an early retiree, no?
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Old 08-22-2009, 03:59 PM   #119
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Here are some numbers for Cash-for-clunkers:
Is Somebody Lying About “Cash for Clunkers”? - Freakonomics Blog - NYTimes.com

Suppose the average number of cars and trucks sold in a year in the USA was 8 million or about 700K per month. We know the Great Recession killed car sales. Now if each clunker got $4000, then $2 billion would account for only 500,000 cars sold. That's between 3 and 4 weeks worth of vehicles in a normal economy. The program has been running how long? I submit to you that cash-for-clunkers didn't do anything. The cars would've been sold anyways.

Why not just give a tax cut or rebate? That would've been more helpful to us folks who don't drive clunkers.
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Old 08-23-2009, 12:05 AM   #120
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CFC round 2:
Cash for Clunker Appliances. I started a new thread for discussion of it.

Cash for Clunker Appliances

Basically $200 rebate for buying energy star appliances.
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