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Old 02-01-2008, 10:19 AM   #61
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Help me out here: what is the dominant approach espoused here again? You never did answer that question.
Ah, poor Bunny. I'm sorry I didn't respond to your question.

I did say "approaches," didn't I?

But take a look at the beginning of this thread in which a "scientist" quotes some dogma from the Bernstein bible that doesn't even address the topic. And then some bunny shouts out with a "Yeah, sister! Amen!"

Or something like that.

I'd say that respresents one of the dominant approaches here. You know, the idea that "momentum" is bad. One of the moderators here even used the past 90-day performance of a fund to prove it.

Is an approach bad simply because it is dominant here? No.

In an approach bad simply because it doesn't fit the conventional wisdom of Bernstein et al? Or the "cigar butts" of Graham and Dodd? Or fundamental analysis? Or CFB's random made-up strategy du jour? No.

I'd rather learn how somebody chose their investing style. Thanks in advance for tolerating such discussions.
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Old 02-01-2008, 10:20 AM   #62
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Well, I think there are several different questions here.

1) Is FUNDX an "uneducated" choice? Is it for "high-schoolers", while the dominant approaches espoused here are for "MIT'ers?" I think the answer is obviously "no."

2) Do momentum strategies work? I think the academic answer is clearly "yes."

3) Do all momentum strategies work all the time? I doubt it.

Try reading at least part of the paper I ref'd. It gives both a nice overview and a nice summary. For example, most of the excess returns from momentum apparently come from shorting. So a fund that only goes long isn't going to exploit the full effect.
Twaddle, can you answer my basic question above: 'as a practical matter, how can I profit from this?'.

Academic studies are all well and good, and can make interesting reading if I'm in the mood. But my question stands. And further...

I'm pretty sure that the cream-of-the-crop, well educated active fund managers and their teams have absorbed every word of all those studies. If we take your 'unequivocal yes' on momentum plays, it seems there should be a group of active fund managers putting this to work and providing superior risk-adjusted returns. And they should be smart enough to know which strategies work in which markets. Where are they? Has there been a thread recently that has highlighted superior risk-adjusted funds with a long history? If so, I'd like to review it - I'm always looking. The FAIRX fund looks pretty good in just about any time frame:

FAIRX: Basic Chart for FAIRHOLME FUND - Yahoo! Finance

They hold just 25 stocks, I do worry that w/o much diversification, they could just be wrong for a stretch?

Or does 'not all momentum strategies work all the time' require knowing in advance what the market conditions will be? Now we are back to predicting the market, with the risk of being wrong.

I hope I'm not coming off too negative here. I'm simply doing the 'I'm from Missouri - show me' thing. I'd like nothing better than to be shown a strategy with a history and that can be replicated that has a significant advantage over an index blend of similar volatility. Ideally, in a fund that I can buy. Even if it involves high turnover - that can be fine for a tax deferred account.

Just so you understand that I'm not opposed to going outside the 'index box', I've been using a 'strategy' on almost half my portfolio. But if ten people did it, they might come up with ten different results, so it's not something that is so easily replicated. And it has underperformed in some market conditions. So it's not something I'd 'shout from the rooftops'. But I'm learning, and the conditions that it underperforms on appear to be obvious from the market conditions at the time (not needing to be predictive) - so now, if conditions look poor, I just throw the money back in SPY (my benchmark for this approach) until conditions change. I'll let you knoe when I have a 20 year history with it

-ERD50
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Old 02-01-2008, 10:32 AM   #63
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Twaddle, can you answer my basic question above: 'as a practical matter, how can I profit from this?'.
I'll give you one answer and then a question for you.

Answer: A guy named Cliff Asness writes about this stuff a lot. He also runs some funds. Invest in one of his funds.

Question: It's also well accepted that small-cap value out-performs some other asset classes, right? Can you tell me the best way to profit from that idea? And explain why small-cap value has performed so poorly recently?

There are lots of different implementations of ideas. And not all ideas work all the time. The academics just tell you what works pretty consistently, ideally across different time frames and world markets.
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Old 02-01-2008, 10:34 AM   #64
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I did say "approaches," didn't I?
Very good. What are these dominant "approaches" then. I dont see them.

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But take a look at the beginning of this thread in which a "scientist" quotes some dogma from the Bernstein bible that doesn't even address the topic. And then some bozo shouts out with a "Yeah, sister! Amen!"
Shall we not avoid name calling? On one hand you seem to despise what you perceive to be a lack of open mindedness, on the other people who say things that you dont like are "scientists" and bozos?

Quote:
I'd say that respresents one of the dominant approaches here. You know, the idea that "momentum" is bad. One of the moderators here even used the past 90-day performance of a fund to prove it.
I dont think anyone has said it is "bad", just pointed out some potential issues and the need to risk adjust the strategy.

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Is an approach bad simply because it is dominant here? No.
Here we go again. Which is/are the "dominant" strategies here? The ones that dont introduce excess risk and complete loss of principal without a likely and offsetting gain? The ones with tons of data backup and a load of well respected experts behind them?

When there are a dozen completely different ways to approach something, can one claim any level of "dominance" is in existence?

Quote:
Or CFB's random made-up strategy du jour?
My strategy has made me more money than any momentum strategy I've seen so far. Want to buy my newsletter?

Quote:
I'd rather learn how somebody chose their investing style. Thanks in advance for tolerating such discussions.
Do go on with your crusade to invent problems that arent there in an effort to explain why you dont like it here.
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Old 02-01-2008, 11:13 AM   #65
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I can see the value of momentum investing. Say that I'm buying mutual funds... while we know that funds do not outperform their index over time, and we can assume that an outperforming fund will underperform as it reverts to the mean, we also know that those aren't instantanious events. A fund manager gets hot for a while and then cools off as they make bad picks or as money floods into said hot fund.

So, you ride a hot fund / stock up and then jump on the way down.

In a sense, I can reconcile this internally with efficent market because a momentum investor is accepting a higher risk.

Further, it strikes me that rebalancing, as has been pointed out, is similar... it just happens at such a pace that it looks no more like momentum investing than a glacier looks like a river.

I also know that this doesn't fit my style at all. I rebalance as percentages change to keep me in line with my target risk / reward. That's about as active as I want to get at this point... I have a high confidence that I'll get to where I want to be on my pace and I see no reason to accept more risk or invest more time in hopes of getting there faster or with more.

Anyway, just my opinion. It seems viable, it seems like it might make up a great component of someone's portfolio if they chose, and it seems like it's not for me at all. But hey, the closest thing I come to being an expert with money is that I can spin a quarter really fast if I flick it right.
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Old 02-01-2008, 11:33 AM   #66
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Hi all

I have deleted all posts containing personal attacks and off topic responses. Please stick to the subject at hand

Thanks
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Old 02-01-2008, 12:18 PM   #67
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Old 02-01-2008, 12:48 PM   #68
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I guess I missed the 'fun' while I was out shoveling the walk. Oh well, Im just trying to find out if there is a reliable investment out there that performs better than S&P500 with less or equal volatility. Boring ol' me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by twaddle View Post

1) Is FUNDX an "uneducated" choice?
I don't understand. What are you asking? (ignore it if this somehow became controversial?).


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Originally Posted by twaddle View Post
I'll give you one answer and then a question for you.

Answer: A guy named Cliff Asness writes about this stuff a lot. He also runs some funds. Invest in one of his funds.
A little googling says this guy runs a hedge fund. Can I even access performance reports? Putting a bunch of money in the hands of a hedge fund operator does not match my idea of meeting the risk of an index fund. I'm going to put that in the 'not practical' category.

Quote:
Question: It's also well accepted that small-cap value out-performs some other asset classes, right? Can you tell me the best way to profit from that idea? And explain why small-cap value has performed so poorly recently?
Define 'out-perform'. I think you are ignoring the 'risk adjusted' point I keep making. Say that I blend the AA of a small cap index down with fixed income so that the dips are no worse than the S&P. Do I outperform then? IIRC, it should outperform slightly, the 'alpha' should be higher, right?

After that thread where I outlined the dips in net worth that one would historically experience over just 15 years, even with a 50/50 AA and a 3.5% SWR, I'm a bit sensitive to taking on more volatility. If one is in the accumulation phase, and has decent job security, it probably makes sense to go more aggressive. But it's still not apples-to-apples.

Quote:
There are lots of different implementations of ideas. And not all ideas work all the time. The academics just tell you what works pretty consistently, ideally across different time frames and world markets.
So, can anyone please point out some publicly traded mutual funds that achieve the goal of consistently outperforming indexes on a risk adjusted basis?

-ERD50
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Old 02-01-2008, 01:10 PM   #69
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ERD50, please define "risk adjusted." That used to mean adjusted for beta. These days it means adjusted for the three factors of Fama & French. The paper I referenced *explicitly* and *repeatedly* talks about momentum in terms of a source of excess returns not explained by the F&F three factors.

In other words, momentum is an accepted independent "fourth factor" used to explain returns.

I'm not an expert on mutual funds, but most of them don't carry short positions. That's usually the purview of hedge funds. But there are some you can access. Even Vanguard recently introduced a "market neutral" fund that exploits momentum.
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Old 02-01-2008, 02:37 PM   #70
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ERD50, please define "risk adjusted." That used to mean adjusted for beta. These days it means adjusted for the three factors of Fama & French. The paper I referenced *explicitly* and *repeatedly* talks about momentum in terms of a source of excess returns not explained by the F&F three factors.
...

I'm not an expert on mutual funds, ...
You keep referencing the papers and theories. That's great, but what I'm interested in is seeing some tangible results based on those theories. That's why I keep asking about a public mutual fund with a history that follows this model. That's something we can review. That's something that people on this forum could easily invest in if it looks attractive.

And there are funds that hold shorts, and some that are nothing but shorts. The fund can do it as long as it is listed in their prospectus. I'm pretty sure you can even hold these short funds in an IRA, even though you can't short a stock directly in an IRA.

On Fama & French 3 factors (from wiki):
Quote:
The three factor model is gaining recognition in portfolio management. Morningstar.com classifies stocks and mutual funds based on these factors. Many studies show that the majority of actively managed mutual funds underperform broad indexes based on three factors if classified properly. This leads to more and more index funds and ETFs being offered based on the three factor model.
So, it looks like morningstar picked MSCI EAFE as the index to measure FUNDX against - so it must be the appropriate index for FUNDX comparisons, yet FUNDX underperforms.

Now, my personal definition of 'risk adjusted' is which investment will maintain the 'highest worst case lows' for a 50 year portfolio. Too much fixed income is risky - it does not keep up with inflation; investments with big negative swings bring lower-lows.

If there does not seem to be a mutual fund for this, we might as well pick up the subject in the 'Stock Picking' forum.

-ERD50
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Old 02-01-2008, 02:49 PM   #71
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Good question, but not one I can answer. I'm not a momentum fund investor, but I was hoping that we could hear from a few since it is an interesting way to invest.

I did invest in houses and dot-coms during the bubbles. Does that count?

Several people have indicated that they consider momentum investing a "risky" strategy. I was merely pointing out that the academic evidence doesn't support that idea. The strategies they looked at aren't making money due to added volatility or any other standard metric of risk.

It's obviously an active strategy. It incurs trading costs. If you buy a fund, those costs will be on top of managment fees. I would be surpirsed if you could buy a fund that makes enough from the strategy to clear those cost hurdles.

But that doesn't mean that people can't do it on their own. Or with the help of a newsletter.
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Old 02-01-2008, 03:07 PM   #72
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...You know, the idea that "momentum" is bad. One of the moderators here even used the past 90-day performance of a fund to prove it.
Hey Twaddle, I don't see where anyone else posted a 90 day perf chart on momentum funds, so it would appear statement above is in reference to my post here.

To say that I posted the charts to prove momentum investing is bad is, well it just ain't right. I wasn't trying to prove anything. My post was in response to another poster who inquired about returns since Oct. and Nov. Nothing in that post that I can see about the relative merits of momentum investing unless you are referring to my comment about volatility, which I clearly pointed out isn't necessarily a bad thing. For example, the fine folks who market Tide Laundry Detergent and Pepto Bismol probably enjoy the boost in sales...
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Old 02-01-2008, 03:18 PM   #73
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Sorry, Wahoo, I did take that a bit out of context. Probably the "high school vs MIT" stuff too. I got carried away by the momentum of the discussion.
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Old 02-01-2008, 03:29 PM   #74
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I got carried away by the momentum of the discussion.
NBD.
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Old 02-01-2008, 04:42 PM   #75
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I would be surpirsed if you could buy a fund that makes enough from the strategy to clear those cost hurdles.
That's the key. You are probably right, I was hoping you were wrong.

Quote:
But that doesn't mean that people can't do it on their own. Or with the help of a newsletter.
Also correct, but it is tougher for many people (myself included) to put their faith in a newsletter writer. Even if they are right for a long time, one worries that they will revert to the mean, possibly at a very bad time. If you are comfortable with it, and seeing good results, that's great.


Quote:
Several people have indicated that they consider momentum investing a "risky" strategy.
I guess you could look at it like this - if you pick an index as your benchmark, any investment outside that index runs the risk of under-performing (and over-performing obviously) the benchmark. For many of us, portfolio survival is more important than dying with a big portfolio. So under-performance is the concern.

But if you are saying that a fund with about 1% point higher fees than an index will have trouble outperforming the index, that doesn't sound like a lot of upside. Of course, if you are comfortable with the approach, can minimize trading and tax expenses and actually realize a 1% boost consistently for many years, that will be sizable.

So I see where there is potential and it could be of interest to the stock pickers, but not enough for me to say, 'hey everyone, ditch your index funds and go momentum'.

-ERD50
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Old 02-02-2008, 04:30 PM   #76
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ERD50, Maybe these returns will provide some insight :confused: I have listed the 7 lazy portfolios tracked by Paul Farrell, My returns "David" and my newsletter "Sound Mind Investing"

Portfolio Name, Equity %, 5-year annualized return %
  1. David , 100, 21.90
  2. Aronson Family Taxable, 80, 21.47
  3. Sound Mind Investing, 100, 20.92
  4. FundAdvice Ultimate Buy & Hold, 60, 20.32
  5. Margaritaville, 67, 18.63
  6. Yale U's Unconventional, 70, 18.12
  7. Dr. Bernstein's Smart Money, 60, 17.75
  8. Dr. Bernstein's No-Brainer, 75, 17.47
  9. Second Grader's Starter, 90, 17.02
  10. Coffeehouse, 60, 16.71
  11. S&P 500, 100, 12.83
Sorry about the table, I haven't figured out how to work HTML yet

I think all the strategies are easy to implement, have a resonable number of funds and can be managed in an hour a month if you wish.

As you can see, I should be a hedge fund manager

All strategies beat the S&P 500 quite handily. It is still the issue of risk that I can't get my head around. After the fact it is easy to say that my strategy was not risky because it succeeded. I can attribute that to the superiority of the strategy or luck. I can also look and say the Fund Advice portfolio came close the the same return, but only had 60% equity exposure. Presumably that had less risk, or at least less volatility if that is how you count risk. I guess I feel I got my money's worth, but I wonder if the ride will continue.
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Old 02-04-2008, 05:10 PM   #77
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ERD50, Maybe these returns will provide some insight :confused: I have listed the 7 lazy portfolios tracked by Paul Farrell, My returns "David" and my newsletter "Sound Mind Investing"

Portfolio Name, Equity %, 5-year annualized return %
  1. David , 100, 21.90
  2. Aronson Family Taxable, 80, 21.47
  3. Sound Mind Investing, 100, 20.92
  4. FundAdvice Ultimate Buy & Hold, 60, 20.32
  5. Margaritaville, 67, 18.63
  6. Yale U's Unconventional, 70, 18.12
  7. Dr. Bernstein's Smart Money, 60, 17.75
  8. Dr. Bernstein's No-Brainer, 75, 17.47
  9. Second Grader's Starter, 90, 17.02
  10. Coffeehouse, 60, 16.71
  11. S&P 500, 100, 12.83
Sorry about the table, I haven't figured out how to work HTML yet

I think all the strategies are easy to implement, have a resonable number of funds and can be managed in an hour a month if you wish.

As you can see, I should be a hedge fund manager

All strategies beat the S&P 500 quite handily. It is still the issue of risk that I can't get my head around. After the fact it is easy to say that my strategy was not risky because it succeeded. I can attribute that to the superiority of the strategy or luck. I can also look and say the Fund Advice portfolio came close the the same return, but only had 60% equity exposure. Presumably that had less risk, or at least less volatility if that is how you count risk. I guess I feel I got my money's worth, but I wonder if the ride will continue.
Those are great returns, so I'm not surprised you are happy! But for a truly meaningful comparison, one cannot ignore risk (usually measured by volatility - which may not be the best measure....).

For example, I could buy Strike 60 DEC 2008 call options on the S&P 500 for about $78. SPY is at about $138, so that gives me 1.77:1 leverage. That call will move up/down in dollar value almost exactly 1:1 with SPY, and you pay a very small premium for such a deep in-the-money call. So, if S&P goes up 12% my account would go up about 21%. But, did I get 'something for nothing'? No, if SPY drops 12% I would go down 21%.


So, risk adjusting your returns is essential for comparisons. I think I said this earlier, but if you are in the accumulation phase, taking some added risk might be just fine. But you should recognize it for what it is.

To get a handle on it, look at the S&P from some recent peak-trough, calc the % delta. Do the same with your account. Then work it the other way. Keep watching that over time, or compare EOM changes in value. If your account is moving more violently than the S&P, the S&P is not a good benchmark for comparison. You may or may not be doing better on a 'risk adjusted' basis.

-ERD50
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Old 02-04-2008, 05:17 PM   #78
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[snarky hijack]

Am I the only one who can't look at this title without thinking "Its WHOM do you love"?

[/snarky hijack]
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Old 02-04-2008, 05:31 PM   #79
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[snarky hijack]

Am I the only one who can't look at this title without thinking "Its WHOM do you love"?

[/snarky hijack]
Not if you lived thirty years in New Orleans and finally learn't ta talk rite!

What did those silly high school English teachers in the old PacNW know anywise - me Mudder was from Detroit and me Father from Boston and they got married/lived for a while in New York City - Brooklyn yet.



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Old 02-04-2008, 07:21 PM   #80
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I thought the song clearly said "WHO DO YOU LOVE?!?!!!"

But some people call him Maurice...

And that song includes a made-up word!
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