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View Poll Results: How will the S&P close on Monday?
+2+% 16 21.62%
+1% 30 40.54%
0% 10 13.51%
-1% 10 13.51%
-2+% 8 10.81%
Voters: 74. You may not vote on this poll

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Re: Monday Market Poll
Old 01-21-2006, 10:27 AM   #21
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Re: Monday Market Poll

Quote:
Originally Posted by Apocalypse . . .um . . .SOON
(), because JG is gone right now, I think I'll step in: I'm not a big believer in Bogleism (sp?) fatalism. It's important to TRY to figure things out or find a Warren Buffet who can do it for you. But you're right too, the short-term is very, very difficult to figure out.
I'm not sure what JG ever 'stepped into' to any good effect, but I can say that Warren doesnt make any attempts to figure anything out either. He just buys good stocks at good price, or the whole company, and then keeps them.

You cant dictate or avoid most of the stuff I see people wheedling about. You can either let inflation eat you, eke out a 1-2% gain over that, or do what someone like buffett or bogle does. The first one is punting on first down. The second is three yards and a cloud of dust on every play; most of the time you'll be punting on fourth down, but its not exciting in a bad way. Or a good way. The latter is obviously quite exciting, in both good and bad ways. If its not exciting in a good way over the long haul, most investors are hosed anyhow.

I'd rather take a chance on being hosed than going short most or all of the time and virtually assuring it.

But to each their own poison and the spoon to take it with...
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Re: Monday Market Poll
Old 01-21-2006, 11:02 AM   #22
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Re: Monday Market Poll

Thought it was going to be a blood bath - I was pleasantly suprised that I'm only down by 0.6%. I'm still planning to be part of the herd that moves sideline cash into the market Monday morning.
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Re: Monday Market Poll
Old 01-21-2006, 11:35 AM   #23
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Re: Monday Market Poll

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sheryl
Thought it was going to be a blood bath - I was pleasantly suprised that I'm only down by 0.6%. I'm still planning to be part of the herd that moves sideline cash into the market Monday morning.
I'll wait 'til Monday late afternoon. 8)
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Re: Monday Market Poll
Old 01-21-2006, 11:36 AM   #24
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Re: Monday Market Poll

Friday's market just proves to me that I'm correct in keeping a mere 25% in stocks.
The market giveth and the market taketh away.
The bear market that started in 2000 continues today.
The up of 2003 and 2004 were just upward spikes in what continues to be a very long bear market that I expect will continue for a very long time.
So sorry for the pessimism.
.
Remember what Bernstein said, something like this: Expected return = the dividend rate + the annual % increase in dividends.
So expect about a 6 percent increase in stocks, which is only a fraction above what you can get with bonds or CDs. So is the risk worth it ?
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Re: Monday Market Poll
Old 01-21-2006, 11:44 AM   #25
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Re: Monday Market Poll

Quote:
Originally Posted by bennevis
Friday's market just proves to me that I'm correct in keeping a mere 25% in stocks.
The market giveth and the market taketh away.
The bear market that started in 2000 continues today.
The up of 2003 and 2004 were just upward spikes in what continues to be a very long bear market that I expect will continue for a very long time.
So sorry for the pessimism.
.
Remember what Bernstein said, something like this:* *Expected return = the dividend rate + the annual % increase in dividends.
So expect about a 6 percent increase in stocks,* which is only a fraction above what you can get with bonds or CDs.* * So is the risk worth it ?
Excellent! you've reached the puke point. That's the point where you regurgitate all your stocks (or almost all) and say never again. With the so far mild aftermath of 2001 most investors remain speculative and have no problems paying high for their risk premiums. Speculation remains rampant, just look at housing. "But this time it's different."
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Re: Monday Market Poll
Old 01-21-2006, 11:51 AM   #26
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Re: Monday Market Poll

Also remember what happens if you retire and the market immediately take a big hit. You can never make up the losses. So I have to take FIRECALC with a grain of salt and I have to take less than 4% just to be safe - just extra cautious I guess.
Or maybe I'm becoming another John Galt.
I would die if I was down 52k in one day like Cybrmike.
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Re: Monday Market Poll
Old 01-21-2006, 12:44 PM   #27
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Re: Monday Market Poll

Quote:
Originally Posted by bennevis
Friday's market just proves to me that I'm correct in keeping a mere 25% in stocks.
The market giveth and the market taketh away.
The bear market that started in 2000 continues today.
The up of 2003 and 2004 were just upward spikes in what continues to be a very long bear market that I expect will continue for a very long time.
So sorry for the pessimism.
.
Remember what Bernstein said, something like this:* *Expected return = the dividend rate + the annual % increase in dividends.
So expect about a 6 percent increase in stocks,* which is only a fraction above what you can get with bonds or CDs.* * So is the risk worth it ?
I wish more people thought like you, at least for the next 2 or 3 years. I need the market to stay as low as possible while I'm accumulating.
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Re: Monday Market Poll
Old 01-21-2006, 12:51 PM   #28
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Re: Monday Market Poll

Quote:
Originally Posted by bennevis
I would die if I was down 52k in one day like Cybrmike.
This is just a wild guess, but he probably has a new worth of about $5 million and his daily +/- is probably in the $20K range, so I wouldn't be too concerned at those levels.

At one point, I thought I would die if my net worth decreased $1K in a day.* Now without breaking a sweat, I expect to be up or down many thousands depending on how the market does.

It's all relative.
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Re: Monday Market Poll
Old 01-21-2006, 12:55 PM   #29
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Re: Monday Market Poll

Eh, I think I was off by something like 1/2%. *Frankly, it is hard to get upset or excited about a lot of the day to day stuff. *If you have an adequately diversified portfolio (bonds, cash, US equities, foreign equities, foreign bonds, commodities, real estate, etc.), a significant move in any goven market isn't that big a deal.

What really matters to an ER is both market performance AND inflation in the first 5 years of retirement. *The first day/week/month/year? *Snore...

For those of us still accumulating, I personally would be thrilled to see some soft market years. *I have actually been slowly accumulating cash because there aren't particularly attractive opportunities, although I am about ready to start nibbling at certain junk bonds, out of favor equities, etc.
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Re: Monday Market Poll
Old 01-21-2006, 12:59 PM   #30
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Re: Monday Market Poll

One day's results are only meaningful if you're a very short-term investor. Otherwise it's background noise.

Monday? My guess is we gain back half of Friday's loss.
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Re: Monday Market Poll
Old 01-22-2006, 04:41 AM   #31
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Re: Monday Market Poll

the way i look at it my mix of funds has grown from 100.000 in 1987 to 1 million today...thats thru crashes,wars and events that make our heads spin...even a 20% drop puts me light years ahead of not being in the markets in comparison to bonds or cd's over the same time period....we all forget the rollbacks are rolling back to levels ,assuming you have enough cycles in the markets that would be un-attainable without being in the game
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Re: Monday Market Poll
Old 01-22-2006, 09:01 AM   #32
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Re: Monday Market Poll

Up 3.8% ytd, says my 401k website...

Have about $35k in cash for some bargain shopping.
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Re: Monday Market Poll
Old 01-22-2006, 09:34 AM   #33
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Re: Monday Market Poll

Down 0.68% - not too bad.

Hoping for 1% gain on Monday
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Re: Monday Market Poll
Old 01-22-2006, 05:34 PM   #34
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Re: Monday Market Poll

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spanky
Down 0.68% - not too bad.
Almost the same as mine- rounded up to .7%
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Re: Monday Market Poll
Old 01-23-2006, 09:13 AM   #35
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Re: Monday Market Poll

Starting out nicely up this morning. Hey, look! The suns coming out!

Someone paint some dots on that kids eyes. Dang it was tough times back then. They couldnt even afford pupils...

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Re: Monday Market Poll
Old 01-23-2006, 03:32 PM   #36
 
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Re: Monday Market Poll

Well, 14% of us were right!
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Re: Monday Market Poll
Old 01-23-2006, 03:34 PM   #37
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Re: Monday Market Poll

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Originally Posted by TromboneAl
Well, 14% of us were right!
I was wondering if the market was going to follow the nikkei down.... glad it didn't
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Re: Monday Market Poll
Old 01-23-2006, 04:24 PM   #38
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Re: Monday Market Poll

Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl
Well, 14% of us were right!
Yup, we were!
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