Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Re: More Bubble Talk
Old 05-07-2007, 09:40 PM   #21
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 442
Re: More Bubble Talk

The market didn't get a free ride to get to here. They earned it! Look at corporate profits and M&A activity. S&P 500 P/E are at a very reasonable 16, Interest rates are trending down, Market participation is ho-hum, housing money flowing to stocks ...All point to a higher market.

Also IMHO all this diversification into Foreign & Small & mid Caps has left the U.S. large caps undervalued. These are the very companies that have the best international exposure to keep growing.

I'm all in for the ride. Wish me luck!
__________________

__________________
dmpi is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Re: More Bubble Talk
Old 05-08-2007, 12:12 AM   #22
Confused about dryer sheets
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 4
Re: More Bubble Talk

I read this article a couple of weeks back.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ts/070427/10353243.html?.v=7

"we are now seeing the first worldwide bubble in history covering all asset classes" I guess on the bright side, we are not alone...the entire planet is going to burst.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JPatrick

The warnings today are not nearly as loud or obvious for that matter, but they are there. For the last 4 trading sessions I have slipped into cash ever so slowly and I plan to follow one of two plans for better or worse.
I agree JPatrick that the markets are getting heated, I have not begun moving to cash because I still think there is some room, but will move to 100% cash in my equity portfolio when I think the market is at resistance.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JPatrick
BTW, I'm looking for a 4 to 6% correction as opposed to the end of the world.
Agreed. Maybe the end of the world is upon us. I would prefer to think that any sell off is a regression to the mean and that any correction simply provides us buying opportunities.

__________________

__________________
kid8605 is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: More Bubble Talk
Old 05-08-2007, 12:23 AM   #23
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 718
Re: More Bubble Talk

This is probably a good reason why I dont try and time the markets
__________________
Mwsinron is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: More Bubble Talk
Old 05-08-2007, 04:45 AM   #24
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
teejayevans's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,219
Re: More Bubble Talk

I agree it's not a bubble, but I'm betting on a ~5% correction this summer.
By betting I rebalanced to a more conservative ratio 70/30 as oppose to
75/25. Not the end of world either way. Yea I'm a risk-taker
BTW, many of those earning reports were inflated because of the current exchange
rate.
TJ
__________________
teejayevans is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: More Bubble Talk
Old 05-08-2007, 07:47 AM   #25
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
Re: More Bubble Talk

i agree with jpatrick that a 4% to 6% correction is coming simply because the latest rally went up too fast. we are too far above the 10 and 50 day averages to sustain it.

i think the real bear market will start later this year and continue into 1998 once housing starts falling apart. 3Q is when most ARM's start resetting, payment shock will come in time for the back to school shopping season and in time for christmas
__________________
al_bundy is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: More Bubble Talk
Old 05-08-2007, 07:57 AM   #26
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
Re: More Bubble Talk

Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
i think the real bear market will start later this year and continue into 1998 once housing starts falling apart. 3Q is when most ARM's start resetting, payment shock will come in time for the back to school shopping season and in time for christmas
Cool! A market crash so bad it causes a time warp!
__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: More Bubble Talk
Old 05-08-2007, 08:07 AM   #27
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
HFWR's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 12,964
Re: More Bubble Talk

This time around, I'm pulling a Mark Cuban...
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire

...not doing anything of true substance...
HFWR is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: More Bubble Talk
Old 05-08-2007, 08:17 AM   #28
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 16,453
Re: More Bubble Talk

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345
Cool! A market crash so bad it causes a time warp!
Cool! I need to review the hot stocks that ran in 1999 so that I can quintuple+ my money before pulling the plug. Qualcomm anyone?

Audrey
__________________
Well, I thought I was retired. But it seems that now I'm working as a travel agent instead!
audreyh1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: More Bubble Talk
Old 05-08-2007, 11:43 AM   #29
Recycles dryer sheets
perinova's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 424
Re: More Bubble Talk

Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
3Q is when most ARM's start resetting,
How can I find this information?
Do you know how much notice the home"owner" is given to the increase?
__________________
perinova is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: More Bubble Talk
Old 05-08-2007, 11:59 AM   #30
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
Re: More Bubble Talk

http://ml-implode.com/

this is the first big year for ARM resets. most people close around June due to the spring/summer buying season and this is the third quarter.

your mortgage terms are in your mortgage docs including how and by how much your ARM resets. Usually it's 2% or so over LIBOR up to a max rate of 9% or higher and it can go up by 2% a year. the specifics may be different depending on the lender

if you go back around 100 years on the Dow, in something like 7 of the decades the market from year 7 to year 0 of the next decade went through a crash in year 7 or 8 and then flat by year 0.

the exceptions i remember off the top of my head are 1920's, 1950's and 1990's. and 1931 wasn't exactly a stellar year either for stocks.

odds are on a bear market in the latter part of a decade most times. usually because by the middle of the decade people are taking stupid risks in search of higher returns and it takes a few years to catch up.
__________________
al_bundy is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: More Bubble Talk
Old 05-08-2007, 12:04 PM   #31
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
Re: More Bubble Talk

Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
Cool! I need to review the hot stocks that ran in 1999 so that I can quintuple+ my money before pulling the plug. Qualcomm anyone?

Audrey
i was thinking of starting up a housing dot com and taking it public

we'll need a catchy metric as well. some thing like x number of legs per month visiting our master planned communities
__________________
al_bundy is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: More Bubble Talk
Old 05-08-2007, 06:24 PM   #32
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Gone4Good's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
Re: More Bubble Talk

Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
http://ml-implode.com/
if you go back around 100 years on the Dow, in something like 7 of the decades the market from year 7 to year 0 of the next decade went through a crash in year 7 or 8 and then flat by year 0.
Wow, this is so completely random that you'd do just as well measuring hemlines (and have more fun too).
__________________
Retired early, traveling perpetually.
Gone4Good is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: More Bubble Talk
Old 05-13-2007, 10:01 PM   #33
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
JPatrick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,494
Re: More Bubble Talk

Quote:
Originally Posted by JPatrick
.
For the last 4 trading sessions I have slipped into cash ever so slowly and I plan to follow one of two plans for better or worse.
Plan A- Sell equal amounts each day until I reach my max cash position ( 70% )on May 18.
Plan B- If between now and the 18th the SPY MACD gives a clear sell signal I will go to the 70% cash position that day.

F W I W, last weeks action convinced me that I could be ahead of myself regarding my goal of 70% cash by the COB May 18.
Sooo, I pushed the equal sales pause button on May 11. Still anticipate selling down, but I want to watch a couple of days worth of action before resuming.
__________________
JPatrick is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: More Bubble Talk
Old 05-13-2007, 11:22 PM   #34
Dryer sheet wannabe
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 11
Re: More Bubble Talk

Lots of liquidity in the markets, companies buying back lots of shares, interest rate still pretty low, private equity very active, many individual investors still in cash, average P/E, what bubble ?
__________________
Islandboy is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: More Bubble Talk
Old 05-14-2007, 12:53 AM   #35
Moderator Emeritus
Nords's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,616
Re: More Bubble Talk

Quote:
Originally Posted by Islandboy
Lots of liquidity in the markets, companies buying back lots of shares, interest rate still pretty low, private equity very active, many individual investors still in cash, average P/E, what bubble ?
Exactly-- no one's worrying, so there must be a bubble.

Unless it really is different this time...
__________________
*
*

The book written on E-R.org, "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement", on sale now! For more info see "About Me" in my profile.
I don't spend much time here anymore, so please send me a PM. Thanks.
Nords is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: More Bubble Talk
Old 05-14-2007, 07:09 PM   #36
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Gone4Good's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
Re: More Bubble Talk

Can you spot the bubble in this picture:



I can, and it ain't 2007.
__________________
Retired early, traveling perpetually.
Gone4Good is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: More Bubble Talk
Old 05-14-2007, 07:24 PM   #37
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Dawg52's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 7,432
Re: More Bubble Talk

Quote:
Originally Posted by 3 Yrs to Go
Can you spot the bubble in this picture:



I can, and it ain't 2007.
Thanks for the chart. Doesn't mean we won't have a correction, but it does put things in perspective.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Full time wuss.......
Dawg52 is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: More Bubble Talk
Old 05-14-2007, 08:44 PM   #38
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
JPatrick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,494
Re: More Bubble Talk

Quote:
Originally Posted by 3 Yrs to Go
Can you spot the bubble in this picture:



I can, and it ain't 2007.
Ain't no bubble for 07, but toss up a S&P 500 for the same period and I bet I can find a 4 to 6 % correction.
__________________

__________________
JPatrick is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Sizing the Housing Bubble wabmester FIRE and Money 434 04-06-2007 11:14 PM
What Real Estate Bubble? Art FIRE and Money 76 11-09-2006 03:33 PM
What did we learn from the Bubble? ats5g FIRE and Money 2 05-22-2006 09:15 AM
No Bubble for the DOW retire@40 FIRE and Money 16 06-04-2005 11:29 AM
Real Estate Bubble in D.C. - CBS News tonite.... Cut-Throat FIRE and Money 23 05-19-2005 02:44 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 11:41 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.