Useful Links

dmpi · 05-07-2007, 09:40 PM

The market didn't get a free ride to get to here. They earned it! Look at corporate profits and M&A activity. S&P 500 P/E are at a very reasonable 16, Interest rates are trending down, Market participation is ho-hum, housing money flowing to stocks ...All point to a higher market.

Also IMHO all this diversification into Foreign & Small & mid Caps has left the U.S. large caps undervalued. These are the very companies that have the best international exposure to keep growing.

I'm all in for the ride. Wish me luck!

kid8605 · 05-08-2007, 12:12 AM

I read this article a couple of weeks back.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ts/070427/10353243.html?.v=7

"we are now seeing the first worldwide bubble in history covering all asset classes" I guess on the bright side, we are not alone...the entire planet is going to burst.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPatrick

The warnings today are not nearly as loud or obvious for that matter, but they are there. For the last 4 trading sessions I have slipped into cash ever so slowly and I plan to follow one of two plans for better or worse.

I agree JPatrick that the markets are getting heated, I have not begun moving to cash because I still think there is some room, but will move to 100% cash in my equity portfolio when I think the market is at resistance.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPatrick

BTW, I'm looking for a 4 to 6% correction as opposed to the end of the world.

Agreed. Maybe the end of the world is upon us. I would prefer to think that any sell off is a regression to the mean and that any correction simply provides us buying opportunities.

Mwsinron · 05-08-2007, 12:23 AM

This is probably a good reason why I dont try and time the markets

teejayevans · 05-08-2007, 04:45 AM

I agree it's not a bubble, but I'm betting on a ~5% correction this summer.
By betting I rebalanced to a more conservative ratio 70/30 as oppose to
75/25. Not the end of world either way. Yea I'm a risk-taker

BTW, many of those earning reports were inflated because of the current exchange
rate.
TJ

al_bundy · 05-08-2007, 07:47 AM

i agree with jpatrick that a 4% to 6% correction is coming simply because the latest rally went up too fast. we are too far above the 10 and 50 day averages to sustain it.

i think the real bear market will start later this year and continue into 1998 once housing starts falling apart. 3Q is when most ARM's start resetting, payment shock will come in time for the back to school shopping season and in time for christmas

brewer12345 · 05-08-2007, 07:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by al_bundy

i think the real bear market will start later this year and continue into 1998 once housing starts falling apart. 3Q is when most ARM's start resetting, payment shock will come in time for the back to school shopping season and in time for christmas

Cool! A market crash so bad it causes a time warp!

HFWR · 05-08-2007, 08:07 AM

This time around, I'm pulling a Mark Cuban...

audreyh1 · 05-08-2007, 08:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brewer12345

Cool! A market crash so bad it causes a time warp!

Cool! I need to review the hot stocks that ran in 1999 so that I can quintuple+ my money before pulling the plug. Qualcomm anyone?

Audrey

perinova · 05-08-2007, 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by al_bundy

3Q is when most ARM's start resetting,

How can I find this information?
Do you know how much notice the home"owner" is given to the increase?

al_bundy · 05-08-2007, 11:59 AM

http://ml-implode.com/

this is the first big year for ARM resets. most people close around June due to the spring/summer buying season and this is the third quarter.

your mortgage terms are in your mortgage docs including how and by how much your ARM resets. Usually it's 2% or so over LIBOR up to a max rate of 9% or higher and it can go up by 2% a year. the specifics may be different depending on the lender

if you go back around 100 years on the Dow, in something like 7 of the decades the market from year 7 to year 0 of the next decade went through a crash in year 7 or 8 and then flat by year 0.

the exceptions i remember off the top of my head are 1920's, 1950's and 1990's. and 1931 wasn't exactly a stellar year either for stocks.

odds are on a bear market in the latter part of a decade most times. usually because by the middle of the decade people are taking stupid risks in search of higher returns and it takes a few years to catch up.

al_bundy · 05-08-2007, 12:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by audreyh1

Cool! I need to review the hot stocks that ran in 1999 so that I can quintuple+ my money before pulling the plug. Qualcomm anyone?

Audrey

i was thinking of starting up a housing dot com and taking it public

we'll need a catchy metric as well. some thing like x number of legs per month visiting our master planned communities

. . . Yrs to Go · 05-08-2007, 06:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by al_bundy

http://ml-implode.com/
if you go back around 100 years on the Dow, in something like 7 of the decades the market from year 7 to year 0 of the next decade went through a crash in year 7 or 8 and then flat by year 0.

Wow, this is so completely random that you'd do just as well measuring hemlines (and have more fun too).

JPatrick · 05-13-2007, 10:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPatrick

.
For the last 4 trading sessions I have slipped into cash ever so slowly and I plan to follow one of two plans for better or worse.
Plan A- Sell equal amounts each day until I reach my max cash position ( 70% )on May 18.
Plan B- If between now and the 18th the SPY MACD gives a clear sell signal I will go to the 70% cash position that day.

F W I W, last weeks action convinced me that I could be ahead of myself regarding my goal of 70% cash by the COB May 18.
Sooo, I pushed the equal sales pause button on May 11. Still anticipate selling down, but I want to watch a couple of days worth of action before resuming.

Islandboy · 05-13-2007, 11:22 PM

Lots of liquidity in the markets, companies buying back lots of shares, interest rate still pretty low, private equity very active, many individual investors still in cash, average P/E, what bubble ?

Nords · 05-14-2007, 12:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Islandboy

Lots of liquidity in the markets, companies buying back lots of shares, interest rate still pretty low, private equity very active, many individual investors still in cash, average P/E, what bubble ?

Exactly-- no one's worrying, so there must be a bubble.

Unless it really is different this time...