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Re: More economic doom 'n' gloom
Old 04-08-2006, 02:18 PM   #21
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Re: More economic doom 'n' gloom

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
If you statistics Vulcans aren't on the job to interpret these figures for the great unwashed public investor, then irrational behavior is bound to take place.
Irrational investor behavior will happen NO MATTER WHAT.

Audrey
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Re: More economic doom 'n' gloom
Old 04-08-2006, 02:20 PM   #22
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Re: More economic doom 'n' gloom

Nords, I tried to cover all your points with the following disclaimer:

Quote:
Originally Posted by 3 Yrs to Go
. . . which is understandable because the financial press has it wrong too. *
I completely agree with you. *It's not only the financial press that has become excessively myopic but the financial markets as well. *Stocks and bonds will trade based on whether monthly job growth was 100,000 or 200,000 when both numbers in and of themselves are statistically meaningless. *The market and the press lose the forest, meaning the trend in jobs data, for the trees, which is an individual report. *Again, I completely agree.

However, the idea that I was responding to was this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cute Fuzzy Bunny
. . . the economic expansion just isnt as good as its portrayed.* Since the 'new jobs' folks cant accurately measure small business job growth, this is how they put that together.

Anyone notice an acceleration of new small businesses cropping up in their neighborhoods?* Me neither.
The implication here is that the data is bad and the economy is worse than it seems. *I think this statement is untrue.
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Re: More economic doom 'n' gloom
Old 04-08-2006, 02:58 PM   #23
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Re: More economic doom 'n' gloom

My implication is that we dont actually know. I think some parts of the economy are good. I think some parts arent. I think the "numbers" that are reported to us like the jobs numbers and CPI numbers have very little bearing on what parts are working well and what parts arent.

I think we're all in vigorous agreement.
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Re: More economic doom 'n' gloom
Old 04-08-2006, 04:09 PM   #24
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Re: More economic doom 'n' gloom

Nords:
Quote:
Well, excuse the #$%^ out of me for reporting what investors and the media do about a figure that's widely reported in the media.
CFB:
Quote:
My point exactly. What the facts are and whats reported with the subsequent knee jerk investor reactions are not necessarily the same.
You guys are pretty sensitive, aren't you? I didn't even mention your posts in my origninal post. I just gave some links that explain where the numbers really come from. Maybe I should send the links to Oprah.
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Re: More economic doom 'n' gloom
Old 04-08-2006, 04:10 PM   #25
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Re: More economic doom 'n' gloom

Blow me!

(wow, its been a long time since the last iteration of THAT one!)

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Re: More economic doom 'n' gloom
Old 04-08-2006, 04:14 PM   #26
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Re: More economic doom 'n' gloom

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Originally Posted by Cute Fuzzy Bunny
Blow me!

You'll never get on Oprah with that kind of language.
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Re: More economic doom 'n' gloom
Old 04-08-2006, 05:53 PM   #27
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Re: More economic doom 'n' gloom

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cute Fuzzy Bunny
My implication is that we dont actually know.* I think some parts of the economy are good.* I think some parts arent.* I think the "numbers" that are reported to us like the jobs numbers and CPI numbers have very little bearing on what parts are working well and what parts arent.

I think we're all in vigorous agreement.
Vigorous might be a stretch. I happen to think the government's economic statistics are pretty good. Perfect? No. But probably a lot better than most on this board gives them credit for. It seems that disdain for government statistics also coincides with a generally pessimistic attitude about the US. You never hear people question the trade deficit statistics, the budget deficit, etc. These are cited as immutable facts that prove the economy is heading into a ditch. But any time you point out that GDP is growing like gang busters, CPI is stable, unemployment is low, etc. people roll out the conspiracy theories . . . "CPI is manipulated lower to keep the dollar strong to support our massive trade deficit to keep us buying foreign oil so the government can divert tax dollars to Halliburton . . . "
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Re: More economic doom 'n' gloom
Old 04-08-2006, 08:39 PM   #28
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Re: More economic doom 'n' gloom

I think they're fine for what they are, but not necessarily for what they're attributed to. And the reason isnt conspiracy, I think the reason is they're just trying to get too fancy with a lot of the stuff. I honestly dont think that taken on their own, the various figures accurately measure anything very well. Simple efforts by people to put dials and knobs on things that cant be measured by dials and controlled with knobs.

My rant is how the "facts" are reported, and how the "facts" are responded to. And i'm not even remotely pessimistic about the US.

So please dont lump me in with the permabears, goldbugs and halliburton theorists. In this case a cigar is just a cigar. I've seen how the employment numbers are derived and how CPI is derived. The former doesnt measure unemployment and new jobs very well in a lot of cases and the latter doesnt effectively measure inflation...in my opinion.
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Re: More economic doom 'n' gloom
Old 04-08-2006, 08:45 PM   #29
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Re: More economic doom 'n' gloom

"In this case a cigar is just a cigar."

- Sigmund Rabbit

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