More photovoltaic solar installed on Oahu in 2012 than in the last decade... combined

[ERD50]

Honestly, it is very disappointing that even in Hawaii renewable energy has such a hard time. But I think it is instructive for everybody in the mainland, before you all get excited about new green energy source. Ask yourself the question, if it didn't work in a Hawaii with electricity costs 2-4 times more than other state, twice as much sunlight, and wind locations as good as most anywhere, than what chance does it have to be competitive anyplace else?

Excellent observation (though it is not what many people want to hear).

I say much the same thing about Electric Vehicles, comparing the mainland US with Europe. If EVs have not taken off in Europe, with their high fuel prices and generally smaller cars and shorter commutes, then why would anyone expect any significant % EV in the US?

-ERD50

 

[Hamlet]

The expensive land in Hawaii would make utility scale solar problematic.

Having an economy highly dependent on the view of the ocean makes wind problematic. The dense population doesn't help either. Wind farms aren't something you really want your neighbor having.

Here in the Midwest, we have vast expanses of windy farmland with almost no people near them. We've build windmills.

Arizona has vast areas of cheap, sunny desert around Phoenix. I think that is where you'll see real scale in utility solar first.

Hawaii is ideal for home-based systems, but I've always questioned whether people will be willing to deal with the hassle.

Honestly, it is very disappointing that even in Hawaii renewable energy has such a hard time. But I think it is instructive for everybody in the mainland, before you all get excited about new green energy source. Ask yourself the question, if it didn't work in a Hawaii with electricity costs 2-4 times more than other state, twice as much sunlight, and wind locations as good as most anywhere, than what chance does it have to be competitive anyplace else?

 

[deserat]

Pima county, AZ - I have 2.8 Kilowatt PV system on my roof - grid tied (which means when the power goes out, so does my access to the solar generated power----sigh).

So far, the largest part of my electricity bills has been all of the fees on the bill.....I just love paying the alternative energy generation fee - huh?!?!

Coolest part of my system is being able to monitor it via network - each panel and how it much it generates and at what time of day/month/year the generation is the highest, etc.

Still need to see what AZ will give us in tax breaks - not much, I don't think as they phased a lot of that out a few years ago.....nevertheless, this is one of the best places for solar generated power - hell, if I could do it in an aesthetic way, I'd plaster the house with a photovoltaic material.

I also love my solar Citizen watch

 

[clifp]

The expensive land in Hawaii would make utility scale solar problematic.

Having an economy highly dependent on the view of the ocean makes wind problematic. The dense population doesn't help either. Wind farms aren't something you really want your neighbor having.

Here in the Midwest, we have vast expanses of windy farmland with almost no people near them. We've build windmills.

Arizona has vast areas of cheap, sunny desert around Phoenix. I think that is where you'll see real scale in utility solar first.

Hawaii is ideal for home-based systems, but I've always questioned whether people will be willing to deal with the hassle.

Hawaii is only the 13th most densely populated state behind both CA and IL. Even Oahu has hundreds of thousands of acre of fallow agriculture land that used to be devoted to growing pineapple and sugar cane and now does nothing, it is relatively expensive, but the land cost per square meter is lot lower than than cost of the PV panels, or mirrors, or even algae ponds.

You're right that issue relating to the tourism business are important factor, and certainly the NIMBY issue is huge here.

 

[Nords]

The expensive land in Hawaii would make utility scale solar problematic.

The easiest places to put large-scale PV installations have been state/federal land, like Kalaeloa (the former Naval Air Station Barbers Point). There's another large array at a Navy housing area. But the real growth has been commercial/residential, and there's still plenty of empty roofs left. The biggest issue is controlling grid voltage.

Having an economy highly dependent on the view of the ocean makes wind problematic. The dense population doesn't help either. Wind farms aren't something you really want your neighbor having.

That's why it was installed in Kahuku, where apparently there's not enough political or civil power to stop the approval process. It's not clear whether the rest of Oahu has enough average wind or political will to do more than that.
"Big Wind" on Lanai is popular for the prospect of employment, but not for the impression that all the power will be sucked away to Oahu.

Hawaii is ideal for home-based systems, but I've always questioned whether people will be willing to deal with the hassle.

I think the biggest issues have always been the capital expense, the length of the payback, and a homeowner's uncertainty that they'll live there long enough to pay it back. At 30 cents/KWHr, though, a lot of the "no money down" solar companies are able to make money from that business model.

 

[Lancelot]

When oil reaches $250/barrel, all the whining will stop and the construction will proceed... even without government subsidies.

And it surely will as Chinese and Indian consumers trade up from a scooter to a car

The government electric rate here in Thailand is around 10 cents per kWh, but most landlords mark it up by 100 to 200%. I'm paying 15 cents

 

[old woman]

I am in Seattle where it is gray and raining most of the time. I can't find out how that affects solar power. They are powering stop signs and things with little panels but I have only seen one house with a panel so I don't want to be next. Our power is 9cents so some months about $20 to $60 or so. Not worth the risk and hassle of battery banks to be off grid or selling back power if on grid.

 

[grasshopper]

I am in Seattle where it is gray and raining most of the time. I can't find out how that affects solar power. They are powering stop signs and things with little panels but I have only seen one house with a panel so I don't want to be next. Our power is 9cents so some months about $20 to $60 or so. Not worth the risk and hassle of battery banks to be off grid or selling back power if on grid.

Think hydro-electric, east Washington has some pretty cheap electric bills.

 

[Nords]

I am in Seattle where it is gray and raining most of the time. I can't find out how that affects solar power. They are powering stop signs and things with little panels but I have only seen one house with a panel so I don't want to be next. Our power is 9cents so some months about $20 to $60 or so. Not worth the risk and hassle of battery banks to be off grid or selling back power if on grid.

Solar companies (and research labs) usually have some sort of local insolation map like this one:
Solar Insolation Map

It's a good starting point for annual production, although the research labs tend to be more pragmatic than the solar companies.

The payback is more complicated because every state/locality has a tailored subsidy. The DSIRE national database (DSIRE: Database of Energy Efficiency, Renewable Energy Solar Incentives, Rebates, Programs, Policy) is pretty good at helping you drill down to your area's federal/state/local tax credits, as well as any rebates offered by your local utility company.

In very broad general terms, for areas with residential natural gas or with electric rates under 12 cents/KWHr, photovoltaic will have an unrealistically long payback of 15-20 years. However a few years ago New Jersey and Germany were two of the planet's best places to install PV-- due to the tax credits. And if you can do your own mechanical installation or if you can find panels for under $2/watt, then your payback might be considerably faster.

It's worth keeping an eye on the tech for the next few years. Prices are collapsing and power densities are climbing rapidly. Our array has already paid for itself and our newest panels, from 2007, are already considered "vintage". (Our 1990s panels are Smithsonian quality.) They cost about $2-$4/watt used/seconds in 2005-07, but today you can get that price for new retail panels.

 

[clifp]

Think hydro-electric, east Washington has some pretty cheap electric bills.

It is interesting that Hydro is the ultimate renewable energy source, and extremely cheap. (The electricity rates for my properties in Vegas are in the $.07-.08 KwH range). But somehow it isn't considered green

 

[meierlde]

Hawaii is only the 13th most densely populated state behind both CA and IL. Even Oahu has hundreds of thousands of acre of fallow agriculture land that used to be devoted to growing pineapple and sugar cane and now does nothing, it is relatively expensive, but the land cost per square meter is lot lower than than cost of the PV panels, or mirrors, or even algae ponds.

You're right that issue relating to the tourism business are important factor, and certainly the NIMBY issue is huge here.

In particular on the islands the leeward (dry sides) would be good for solar power since the sun shines a lot, the windward sides not so much since it rains so much there. Also note the comment that the sister islands since they have so much less demand have higher prices for electricity. The big island has an aweful lot of empty space to boot.