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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin
Old 09-23-2004, 05:03 PM   #21
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin

Hey TH,

Would you mind sharing the asset allocation that
has produced a 9% return YTD?

Cheers,

Charlie
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I owe the rest of the board an apology...
Old 09-23-2004, 05:13 PM   #22
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I owe the rest of the board an apology...

... for feeding the troll.

I'll try not to repeat THAT mistake. And this time I really mean it.

Soupxcan, I think you have enough info on your hands now to make up your own mind about asset allocations. But let us know if you have more questions.
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin
Old 09-24-2004, 05:14 AM   #23
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin

I'll try not to repeat THAT mistake.

In your Response #4 post, you make a number of useful points, Nords. Soupxcan asked a question and you helped him out. That's what community is all about. That's what makes discussion boards great. That is why we are all here.

You go off the rails only in the last paragraph of that post. It is clear that you feel hostility toward me because I reported to the board community that intercst got the number wrong in his SWR study. You and other defenders of the conventional methodology (DCMs) are going to need to come to terms with the reality that it is not the summer of 1999 anymore. There is never again going to be a time when everyone in the community is willing to accept the REHP study on faith. It is of course fine if you defend the study through reasoned argument. Calling the person who discredited the study a "troll" because he did so is not reasoned argument. It is nonsense.

Continued use of that sort of tactic demeans those who make use of it. It reveals to the entire community that they have nothing else to go with. It also demeans the community that we continue to tolerate such nonsense. I would greatly appreciate it if you and the other DCMs would kindly knock off the funny business. Defend the study or don't defend it, as you please. But don't demean us all by going to the bottom of the barrel in coming up with the tactics you employ to make your case.
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin
Old 09-24-2004, 12:46 PM   #24
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin

Quote:
Hey TH,

Would you mind sharing the asset allocation that
has produced a 9% return YTD?

Cheers,

Charlie

Charlie -

You going to make me work this early in the morning?!?

My god man.

I will, but it wont help as much as you think, as I've been a dirty market timer and bargain shopper all year. Up front, everything I own is a vanguard fund. My aggregate investment cost is .25%.

My IRA is about 1/3 of my total assets. Its 100% stock, primarily REIT, Healthcare, Energy, Small cap value, Emerging Markets, Explorer and International Explorer. I took advantage of several dips and high points to do a little allocation shifting. These all reinvest everything. Considering the energy is up 24%, REIT 12%, small cap value up 8%, and the fact that I've dipped in and out, I magnified those gains. This is money I wont touch for at least 20-25 years, so I play fast and loose with it.

My taxable fund is currently pretty widely split out. About 2/3 of it is currently split 70/30 between wellesley and wellington. I've been partially in and out of wellesley a couple of times this year, missing some downside and then taking advantage of a small run-up. When I felt stocks had dipped a little a few months ago I moved some wellesley into wellington. I've also bought CA Int Munis and HY Corps at what I thought were good buying times. I'm chasing a little yield here under unfavorable circumstances, but at least i'm diversifying my bonds a little and feel good about that. I picked up some Precious Metals when they were knocked down last April and they've made me a nice little 15% return on that in the past six months.

I've clearly given up some return in the taxable fund in exchange for a fairly low volatility base thats returned about 4.25% to me year to date in the wellesley and wellington

My dividends pay out into the short term corp fund, where they make a little extra. I havent tapped the dividends much this year and probably wont considering my new wifes income more than pays the bills. Over time, I'll also be moving the taxable piece towards some riskier, longer term investments and away from the safer dividend bearing ones when I feel that valuations in those assets make more sense.

I've made about 23 "exchanges" of fund shares across 17 funds so far this year (10 in my taxable and 7 in my IRA). A quarter of those exchanges were just shuffling money between money market and short term bond funds so those dont really count much.

About the only regrettable move I've made so far is not buying the energy fund earlier in the year. I thought it was overpriced but its continued to go higher both before and after I bought it. And I did follow your instincts and buy some extra REIT on the recent dip. I wanted it to go cheaper but I figured you might be onto something and increased my holdings. Thanks for the dough!

Last month I drained about 10% of my taxable fund and I'm winding up to put that into the 3% 11 month CD's at my credit union. Basically I decided there was no point in hoping for 3% out of the short term corp fund and worrying about interest rates when I can get 3% for sure, short duration, and by buying them in $5k and $10k increments if something happens and I NEED money, I can cash just one and lose a small amount of accrued interest. I dont have much in the short term corp account anymore, just enough to keep it open.

Again, I realize this is not very helpful to the fixed asset allocators and balanced index buyers, who are looking at a 2-4% return YTD. And I may very well get caught with my pants down at some point. But a 2-4x improvement on my returns has made the extra work worthwhile.

Now all you non market timers go wash your hands so you'll feel cleaner!
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin
Old 09-24-2004, 01:19 PM   #25
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin

Quote:
Again, I realize this is not very helpful to the fixed asset allocators and balanced index buyers, who are looking at a 2-4% return YTD. *And I may very well get caught with my pants down at some point. *But a 2-4x improvement on my returns has made the extra work worthwhile.
Oh, now you're really rubbing it in. The most widely-held stock indices are pretty close to 0% YTD, and that includes reinvested dividends.

I assume you came up with your 9% YTD simply by comparing your Jan 1 account balance to today's value. I wish I could do that. With a large chunk in real estate, I can only guess (although I did sell one property this year). And I don't bother marking my bonds to market since I plan to hold to maturity. I *think* my YTD gains are around 5% just on a net-worth basis, but of course I spent about 2% of my net-worth this year, so I guess that means I'm up 7%. Only about 2 points of that came from stock gains.
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin
Old 09-24-2004, 02:07 PM   #26
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin

Quote:
I assume you came up with your 9% YTD simply by comparing your Jan 1 account balance to today's value.
Yep, all gains (realized and unrealized) plus dividends paid.

Although if you want to throw real estate into the mix, my house has appreciated ~30% in the past year vs comparable neighborhood sales and my wifes old house that will get sold sometime in the near future is up ~20%. Thrown in to the mix that would give me about a 20% overall gain YTD.

Dont worry I'll let you guys say "I told you so" if I ever step in a hole.
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin
Old 09-24-2004, 04:58 PM   #27
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin

Great going, TH!! Thanks for the feedback and hard
work.

My "coffeehouse" IRA has done 5.47% as of today vs.
2.66% for the Target Retirement 2025, which is my
benchmark. This was helped by buying REIT and
the TIPS fund at the right time. I have since collected
the profits and reinvested in my Short Term Investment
bond fund. My only transgression from the Coffeehouse
allocation has been to add International Explorer. This
was done the day before they closed the fund.

As of today, my Coffeehouse IRA has a 60/40 split
with equal weight to 7 stock funds: Large Cap,
Windsor II, Small Cap Index, Small Cap Value, REIT,
Total International and International Explorer.
The bond allocation is 10% each to the TIPS and
Intermediate Term Bond Index and 20% to Short
Term Investment Grade.

I recently moved my wife's IRA to Wellington from
Target Retirement 2025 but we are still using 2025
for our after tax account.

My trigger finger is itchy and I look lustfully toward
Energy and Precious Metals as we speak. I think
Energy may have topped out and may take a hit
soon. In any case, Windsor II has a lot of energy.
Precious Metals has been in a slump of late but
you are supposed to buy low, right? I might nibble
a little bit after the election but not more than 5%
for both combined. Emerging Markets is also tempting
but Total International and International Explorer both
have some exposure.

Cheers,

Charlie
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin
Old 09-24-2004, 05:07 PM   #28
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin

I agree that energy may be topping out. But then again its a limited supply that isnt getting any cheaper. I also like that vanguards fund has a lot of pumpers and explorers and a lot of non-us companies in it. Some nice diversification in there.

By the way, I said I reinvest dividends, but I do it in a funny way and I dont think I've discussed here before.

I have a few funds (high yield corporate, reit, etc) that pump out a fairly strong and regular dividend. I dont reinvest those back into the same fund...I feed those dividends into Energy, Health Care, and Small Cap Value. I'm sort of getting a DCA from the old stalwarts into the stock rockets via these cross invested dividends. Since those are largely in my IRA, I dont care about the tax implications.

You might consider some of the better CD's and money market options rather than the short term bond funds. I got sick of dangling my capital for a 3% return. My credit unions paying 3% for 11 month cd's, 2.5% for 7 month cd's, and 2.25-2.5 for a "limited" money market that only allows one withdrawal per month. With no volatility of capital.
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin
Old 09-24-2004, 05:22 PM   #29
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin

TH, as you may recall I am drawing down my "coffeehouse" at about a 6% rate for
living expenses. Since I am 70, RMD is a
factor as well. I use Short Term Investment
grade as the source of the monthly withdrawal .
It is the "rubber band" that I use for rebalancing
to 60/40 periodically.

The way I look at it, I am ahead if it does better
than a MM fund like Prime. I like the low hassle
factor of moving money in and out.

Even so, your suggestion has merit

Thanks,

Charlie
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin
Old 09-24-2004, 05:53 PM   #30
 
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin

I confess to not understanding why some people enjoy
"rebalancing, juggling, reallocating, studying,
analyzing, buying/selling" etc. in ER. I would like to just
invest and forget it, and then just cash my checks
and only have to decide how to spend the money.
Obviously lots of visitors here enjoy this
activity in their investments (I think of unclemick's
hobby stocks). If you are enjoying yourself, that's great. I really would like to spend zero time on these
decisions, and thus concentrate on other stuff.
I'm not close yet but that is my wish.

John Galt
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin
Old 09-24-2004, 08:30 PM   #31
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin

Quote:
I confess to not understanding why some people enjoy
"rebalancing, juggling, reallocating, studying,
analyzing, buying/selling" etc. in ER. I would like to just
invest and forget it, and then just cash my checks
and only have to decide how to spend the money.
I agree. My head was starting to hurt just think about all the wheeling and dealing.
If this is the "work" that ERing requires to assure healthy FI after retiring then maybe I'll just keep my job making my 6 figures for another 5 years.

Cheers

MJ
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin
Old 09-24-2004, 08:44 PM   #32
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin

Be careful about using these guys as examples. I suspect that both TH and Charlie are using "gut instincts" to time their moves. Otherwise known as momentum and emotion.

Not that the rest of us are any different. That's why "behavioral finance" sprung up to figure us out. Some of us never learn. Even after burning through a chunk of dough on bad QQQ bets
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin
Old 09-24-2004, 09:47 PM   #33
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin

Well John, different strokes for different folks. Its something I find fun and interesting, and its making me more money than the usual "autopilot" methods. So far. And I like making money. Its worth spending a few hours a month tending to.

Wab...I'm not sure what you're basing your 'suspicions' on, but do tell!! Is it a danish study?

Either i've been pretty lucky for the last 12 years or maybe I just use a lot of common sense coupled with as much available data as possible...and very little "following the herd". In either case, I've clearly been fortunate, and will continue to ride the horse that got me here.

I think perhaps the weirdest things i see are people trying to time the market based on real financial data (when it moves emotionall), or people trying to invest for the long term on an emotional basis (when it moves factually).

I used to make great money in the late 90's by waiting at the mailbox for the mailman to drop off that months "Fortune" and running into the house to buy any stock they recommended...because I knew the cattle that would be reading at the end of the day, or buying on the newsstand in a day or two would rush to buy the same stocks...and then I sold a week later after the surge. I'm making good money now by avoiding the expections that indexes will create historic return levels on the back of valuations that are nearly insane.

To place a marker down, my 'guts' say that most stocks are going to suck in a very big way from about december of this year through about september of next year, when they're going to make a modest long term recovery. I'm looking at a 20-25% overall drop during that down period. REITS are also going to tank, dropping about a third.

See you back at this thread a year from now...
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin
Old 09-24-2004, 10:06 PM   #34
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin

Quote:
Wab...I'm not sure what you're basing your 'suspicions' on, but do tell!! *Is it a danish study?
No, I'm sure I heard it from some guy at the University of Guelph, but he eats nothing but fish oil all day, so his opinions tend to be, umm, fishy *

BTW, are you the same TH who has a lifetime's worth of capital loss carry-forwards, or was that another TH?
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin
Old 09-24-2004, 10:20 PM   #35
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin

Oh man are the canadians going to be pissed at you. In fact they may move up the invasion over this.

At least their country isnt named after a fatty breakfast food item.

Losses. Oh absolutely. I took about 3% of my total net assets in losses right after a year in which my gains were in excess of 165%. I was very guilty of going to the same 'well' one too many times, but I did learn my lesson. I have and am now using those losses to leverage paying zero income taxes for the forseeable future.

Given that 3% loss, can you give me a comparison to how well you did in 2000?

How about 2001 or 2002, when I made enough off my port to live on while most lost money?

By the way, my belt is over here...if you're trying to hit below it you're going to have to orient yourself a little better
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin
Old 09-24-2004, 10:34 PM   #36
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin

Quote:
At least their country isnt named after a fatty breakfast food item.
Oh, now you've done it. Who's going to clean up this nasal milk?

Quote:
Given that 3% loss, can you give me a comparison to how well you did in 2000?

How about 2001 or 2002, when I made enough off my port to live on while most lost money?
Sorry, you're barking up the wrong tree. Call me a dirty market timer, but I liquidated 90% of my stock in Dec 1999, and stayed in munis till early 2003.

There was no doubt in my mind that the stock market had become unglued from reality by the end of 1999. And I was still wrong for a few months into 2000. Are you saying this market looks like that market? There's no comparison.
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin
Old 09-25-2004, 07:04 AM   #37
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin

Wab, I am not really a timer. I just wanted to get
into REIT and TIPS at the right time and was lucky
to do so. Both of these have now been rebalanced
back to my desired allocation.

As far as international exposure, I added International
Explorer just to bring my international allocation up
to 30% of my stock allocation. This was not a timing
move ..... and I was lucky (I hope) to get in the day
before they closed. I have already missed the gain
International Explorer has enjoyed this year.

My core portfolio is now set .....well maybe a small
tweak now and then.

However, I may dabble a little from time to time in
the future with targets of opportunity like Energy,
Emerging Markets and Precious Metals, but never
more than 5% of the total port.

I confess to suffering from the unclemick syndrome but
hopefully a little nibble here and there won't hurt me
much ...... and I do enjoy the hunt!

Cheers,

Charlie

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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin
Old 09-25-2004, 08:51 AM   #38
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin

[quote=ex-Jarhead

I now have, give or take, a few bucks, $25,000,000.00 in my Ira. Do you think I should diversify? Reits have done awfully well.
Regards, Jarhead[/quote]

With $25m Why do you care? Put in Fixed income and have fun.

SWR
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin
Old 09-25-2004, 09:54 AM   #39
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin

Hey Jarhead,

Maybe you should buy an old pharts rest home and
invite us "seasoned" ER vets to come swap lies and
not confuse the children.

Cheers,

Charlie
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin
Old 09-25-2004, 09:59 AM   #40
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Re: Mr. Negativity: all my investment options stin

Jarhead, you must have subscribed to my newsletter. Those are the same timing moves I recommended over the past 17 years. As you may remember from my last newsletter, my current recommendation is to stay in REITs until people start buying dog houses as speculative investments, and then switch to the next hot sector: anti-depression medications (a pure play for the inevitable post-mania blues).
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