Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Mutual Fund outflows - capitulation sign?
Old 10-13-2008, 09:22 PM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
Gardnr's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: ENE MO - near STL
Posts: 424
Mutual Fund outflows - capitulation sign?

According to this website - TrimTabs Newsroom - $43 Billion was taken out of equity mutual funds during the week ending Wed Oct 8. That compares with $75 Billion outflow for the eight months ending Aug 31 and $41 Billion for the month ending Sep 26.

That's a boatload of money and helps explain the meltdown. I wonder how much came out on Thurs and Friday?

I really don't have a good perspective on how that compares to normal market conditions but I'm sure it's a very large deviation and very significant. Average Joe/Jane surely seemed to be running for the exits, as suspected.

Interesting to note that $22 Billion was taken out of bond funds in the month ending Sep 26. That flight to quality we witnessed.

Also interesting that they don't use the word billion on that site but instead express it as 1,000 million. I wonder why?
__________________

__________________
Gardnr is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 10-13-2008, 09:40 PM   #2
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Laurel, MD
Posts: 2,947
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gardnr View Post
Interesting to note that $22 Billion was taken out of bond funds in the month ending Sep 26. That flight to quality we witnessed.

Also interesting that they don't use the word billion on that site but instead express it as 1,000 million. I wonder why?
Before this crisis, I thought a flight to quality meant bond fund inflows, but I guess now it means going to cash.

I assume it dawned on someone that many don't exactly know what a billion is. The term seems to be getting much more use lately...we had a post about that on here the other day.
__________________

__________________
jazz4cash is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2008, 09:50 PM   #3
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 2,020
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazz4cash View Post
I assume it dawned on someone that many don't exactly know what a billion is. The term seems to be getting much more use lately...we had a post about that on here the other day.
Like my wonderful co-workers passing on a chain email that cleverly made it look like AIG was getting an $87 trillion dollar bail-out...
__________________
Marquette is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2008, 10:13 PM   #4
Recycles dryer sheets
Gardnr's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: ENE MO - near STL
Posts: 424
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marquette View Post
Like my wonderful co-workers passing on a chain email that cleverly made it look like AIG was getting an $87 trillion dollar bail-out...
Yeah, that friggen' thing sure was making the rounds, eh? It's amazing how many people pass that stuff along without looking at it with a critical eye. Even supposedly educated people.
__________________
Gardnr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2008, 10:15 PM   #5
Recycles dryer sheets
Gardnr's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: ENE MO - near STL
Posts: 424
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazz4cash View Post
Before this crisis, I thought a flight to quality meant bond fund inflows, but I guess now it means going to cash.
Yep, this flight to quality was unlike anything seen in some time. T-Bills basically yielding nothing but a safe return of money.
__________________
Gardnr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2008, 10:21 PM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 16,463
Flight to quality usually means Treasury bonds or cash.

This time around, the flight to quality was to really short term treasuries (T-bills).

Audrey
__________________
audreyh1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2008, 10:33 PM   #7
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 312
If you are still looking for capitulation, welcome to last week. ;-)

Of course, we haven't seen what next week has in store for us yet.

Cheers.
__________________
Grep is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-14-2008, 10:50 AM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
FinanceDude's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,484
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gardnr View Post
According to this website - TrimTabs Newsroom - $43 Billion was taken out of equity mutual funds during the week ending Wed Oct 8. That compares with $75 Billion outflow for the eight months ending Aug 31 and $41 Billion for the month ending Sep 26.

That's a boatload of money and helps explain the meltdown. I wonder how much came out on Thurs and Friday?
Don't know, but there's $8 TRILLION or so in MF, so adding the total for the year is $159 billion out of $8 trillion, so that's 2%............Even if the number is down to $6 trillion, it's 2.5% of all assets..........yet another fact being distorted.........
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)


This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
FinanceDude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2008, 10:21 AM   #9
Recycles dryer sheets
Gardnr's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: ENE MO - near STL
Posts: 424
Quote:
Originally Posted by FinanceDude View Post
Don't know, but there's $8 TRILLION or so in MF, so adding the total for the year is $159 billion out of $8 trillion, so that's 2%............Even if the number is down to $6 trillion, it's 2.5% of all assets..........yet another fact being distorted.........
Oh I realize that, and it's all relative. I'm not really sure how to assess this and how statistically significant it is. I haven't done thorough research by any means.

It sure helps put downward pressure on the market though. And hopefully will help put upward pressure on it as it flows back in, after I'm done buying!
__________________
Gardnr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2008, 11:11 AM   #10
Recycles dryer sheets
Canadian Grunt's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Edmonton
Posts: 197
We haven't hit the worst of the recession yet so I expect there will be more outflows. More significant is the inflows as they show the confidence level of investors on the recovery side. Wonder what they are. Anyone know?
__________________
it's the journey that matters
Canadian Grunt is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2008, 11:19 AM   #11
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
FinanceDude's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 12,484
I'm sure VG didn't have any outflows.........where's CFB to tell me that??
__________________
Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)


This Thread is USELESS without pics.........:)
FinanceDude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-15-2008, 11:19 AM   #12
Moderator
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 15,612
Quote:
Originally Posted by Canadian Grunt View Post
We haven't hit the worst of the recession yet so I expect there will be more outflows. More significant is the inflows as they show the confidence level of investors on the recovery side. Wonder what they are. Anyone know?
Could be -- but keep in mind that the stock market, as a forward-looking mechanism, tends to bottom out sooner than the economy. Many powerful recovery rallies occur before the economy has hit bottom because the market believes the bottom is not far away.

Given the general "it's different this time" sense of panic, though, that economic bottoming out may be a fair bit of time away.
__________________

__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
capitulation


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
mutual fund forums ecsat FIRE and Money 3 05-17-2008 09:09 PM
Work less mutual fund rw86347 FIRE and Money 2 02-27-2007 12:31 PM
Mutual Fund Outflows.......... FinanceDude FIRE and Money 6 08-28-2006 02:32 PM
Lingo: Stock fund vs Mutual Fund Sam FIRE and Money 9 05-26-2006 11:44 AM
Hedge fund-like mutual fund: SWHEX brewer12345 FIRE and Money 2 11-01-2005 02:29 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 06:37 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.