View Poll Results: Dec 31, 2007 - SP500
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Neg 20%
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4 |
5.06% |
Neg 10%
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3 |
3.80% |
Neg 5%
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5 |
6.33% |
0%
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8 |
10.13% |
+5%
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35 |
44.30% |
+10%
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21 |
26.58% |
+20% (may be you need another crystal ball)
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3 |
3.80% |
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08-16-2007, 03:12 PM
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#1
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 2,155
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My SP500 crystal ball.
I looked at my crystal ball and I saw SP500 at the end of 2007.
Edit to add: It's for the whole 2007 calendar year. Final number relative to Jan 1, 2007.
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08-16-2007, 03:45 PM
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#2
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,691
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You don't get whether its relative 1/1 or today. My crystal ball demands
detail
TJ
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08-16-2007, 03:50 PM
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#3
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 2,155
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Quote:
Originally Posted by teejayevans
You don't get whether its relative 1/1 or today. My crystal ball demands
detail
TJ
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Makes almost no difference ;-) Your crystal ball should have figured that out already.
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08-16-2007, 04:02 PM
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#4
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,337
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Our current correction is just that. The "news" is being blown out of proportion and it will settle down soon. Then the rally will resume. I voted for the +20%.
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
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08-16-2007, 04:25 PM
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#5
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,474
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2B
Our current correction is just that. The "news" is being blown out of proportion and it will settle down soon. Then the rally will resume. I voted for the +20%.
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Wow!! I sure hope you're right.
I voted for +5%, because that's what my crystal ball told me to do.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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08-16-2007, 05:25 PM
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#6
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: North of Montana
Posts: 2,769
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Want2retire
Wow!! I sure hope you're right.
I voted for +5%, because that's what my crystal ball told me to do.
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Good crystal ball! It reads like mine.
__________________
There are two kinds of people in the world: those who can extrapolate conclusions from insufficient data and ..
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08-16-2007, 05:33 PM
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#7
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,743
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On 12/31/2006 I predicted +5% in the "US stock market prediction for 2007" thread.
I am sticking with it.
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08-16-2007, 09:11 PM
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#8
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: near Canadian border and near Mexican border
Posts: 1,142
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The last time I went to the bathroom, I looked at my crystals balls. They both told me +5%.
__________________
Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. That's my story and I am sticking to it.
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08-17-2007, 02:14 AM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 5,072
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I did not vote. I don't have a good track record for guessing.
Besides, if I guessed 10%, that would cause the market to tank further. Then everyone would be mad at me.
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08-17-2007, 05:35 AM
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#10
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,337
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Want2retire
Wow!! I sure hope you're right.
I voted for +5%, because that's what my crystal ball told me to do.
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This makes the 34th post-WWII correction. The average recovery for the first 33 was +25% 12 months later. That's the basis of my guess of +20%. The unknowns are how much farther will this current correction go and how quickly will the prices bounce back.
We have become a bit spoiled in the last 4 years of rally by not having anything more than a few single digit falls. It has literally been almost straight up but we had a major correction starting in 2000 to recover from.
Realizing that we've had 34 corrections over the last 60 years means that we should be seeing a 10+% fall around every 2 years. I am not seeing anything dramatic going on in the fundamentals although there will be some casualties amongst mortgage companies, financial service companies and possibly insurance companies that are heavily involved in low quality debt and derivatives.
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
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08-17-2007, 06:18 AM
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#11
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,455
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Voted for 5%, but looks dim in light of today's steep drop of Asian markets.
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08-17-2007, 06:50 AM
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#12
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 335
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What about the magic 8-ball? Mine says "conditions murky -- inquire later". Or +5%. It's hard to read.
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08-17-2007, 08:27 AM
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#13
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,323
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No balls, but saying +5%.
Well, guess this kicks the crap out of the "predictions" that the market would go all the way up to 1,600....rats! That would have been really nice, eh?
I've been watching Bloomberg tv on satellite alot more for various opinions these past few days. Interesting to get all those different opinions, which seem to agree many times, really.
What's even MORE interesting is how many more of us are writing on the Fire and Money board here the past few days. Somebody is anxiety ridden....or bored. Either one. Just alot more activity here than normal.
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08-17-2007, 08:57 AM
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#14
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,842
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Only 14% of voters at this point think the market can lose money by the end of the year. I think this speaks volumes about the confidence in the stock market by the average American. Corrections have been relegated to a 3 week affair that occur once every 4 or 5 years and then we go on our merry way!!
__________________
But then what do I really know?
https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/why-i-believe-we-are-about-to-embark-on-a-historic-bull-market-run-101268.html
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08-17-2007, 09:09 AM
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#15
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 897
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1418.30 on 1/2/07.
297 Bogleheads averaged 1488 back in Jan.
My guess was about 10% higher then and now, or about 1569. But, it's been several years of solid gains. It can't last forever. So, maybe this time I was wrong about a positive gain for the year.
Today it's 1427 intraday. Let the bottom drop out, I'm accumulating.
-CC
__________________
"There's those thinkin' more or less, less is more, but if less is more, how you keepin' score?
It means for every point you make, your level drops. Kinda like you're startin' from the top..." "Society" - Eddie Vedder
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We can do better than that, surely!!
08-17-2007, 11:25 AM
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#16
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Dryer sheet aficionado
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 35
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We can do better than that, surely!!
As long as it's just an opinion poll and does not involve any money, here's my opinion:
Thinking GLOBALLY, about the only major negative in the world economy today is this "subprime" crises which is primarily US based (pardon me, I'm no economist or financial guru). When you think of that "in total" compared to the size of the world economy, I'm sure its puny - not that it won't cause some headaches or pain - but a minor pain at best, when you put it in perspective.
Two-thirds of the world is actively engaged or taking part in the new global economy and hardly anyone except perhaps a few troublemakers want to rock the boat. The majority of the world, I think, is looking forward to a "better life" and rightly expect that.
New freedoms, new lifestyles, new and better products and varieties to choose from - all pointing to a more peaceful, optimistic world looking to a bright future.
Pity - the choice was limited to +20!
Bring in the new crystal ball
THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A TIME LIKE THIS!
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08-17-2007, 11:33 AM
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#17
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 2,155
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That's what the + is for. On second look, may be it should have been 20+%. I like your optimistic optimism.
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08-17-2007, 12:57 PM
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#18
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: west bloomfield MI
Posts: 2,223
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if the turbulence in the market makes you watch it more, then you might be taking on too much risk.
It's all noise. I read on this board yesterday market was down 10%... then I went to water cooler 2 hours later and they said market was only down 50 points.
I am staying my course, the volatility is needed to reward investors for the risks they take. I hope my fund managers go to cash with even a 1% or 5% gain soon... so next time it goes down 10% we can buy in even lower.
__________________
Light travels faster than sound. That is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak. One person's stupidity is another person's job security.
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