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Nate Silver : The signal & the noise
Old 05-15-2013, 09:03 AM   #1
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Nate Silver : The signal & the noise

I put this in the FIRE and Money forum because it talks about how predictions are made and why so few come true. That's a pretty important topic for us here. After all, we're all predicting that our portfolios will last the rest of our lives.

Nate Silver discusses the limitations and biases that affect predictions, as well as how we should be responding to them. He covers different disciplines from economics and finance to politics, terrorism, baseball and the weather.

I found it a demanding, but interesting and definitely educational read.

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't by Nate Silver - Reviews, Discussion, Bookclubs, Lists

The message to his readers is to think probabilistically and to adjust our predictions as new information is obtained. He shows how to do it using bayseian methods.

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Old 05-15-2013, 09:50 AM   #2
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I'm reading this book now and agree it's demanding, but very interesting and educational. Do you follow his blog?

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Old 05-15-2013, 09:52 AM   #3
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I read it when it came out. Quite interesting.
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Old 05-15-2013, 10:07 AM   #4
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I found the book extremely interesting. (I think I mentioned the book a while back in the "What have you read recently" thread.) Lest prospective readers think that Silver's book is largely about politics, it rarely talks about it. I especially liked the chapters about poker, weather predictions, and baseball.
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Old 05-15-2013, 10:10 AM   #5
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Silver is just a math and probability geek. He's most famous for his political forecasts, yes, but he crunches numbers in all kinds of things.
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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Old 05-15-2013, 12:07 PM   #6
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Silver is golden.

"A man is a success if he gets up in the morning and goes to bed at night and in between does what he wants to do" --Bob Dylan.
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