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Need peer review of my retirement plan
Old 03-02-2015, 02:41 PM   #1
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Need peer review of my retirement plan

Greetings all,

I have spent some time making up a financial spreadsheet to model my retirement.

https://www.amazon.com/clouddrive/sh...gfbHYk6z-c02Gc

I tried to factor everything into this (rather large) spreadsheet:
Taxes, Medicare, Medicare supplements, Medigap, healthcare coverage pre-Medicare, dental and vision, Social Security, using Roth IRA Contributions to cover budget expenses prior to age 59.5

Had to make some educated guesses here and there, but I think itís pretty solid.

I tried to be reasonably pessimistic:
6% return on investments
1.8% inflation
Only getting 80% of the Social Security I should
No increases in SS
Maximum out-of-pocket costs for medical plan every year
Budget is pretty padded compared to how I live now. (no Fancy Feast for me)

Assuming there arenít any horrific errors still in it, it shows me some interesting things:
1. The effect of a Health Savings Account on your medical expenses in retirement is HUGE. Especially if you retire early as it helps you cover the pre-Medicare years. By the time I need someone to take care of me, I should still be able to pay for long term care (or at least the premiums prior to needing it) out of my HSA even though I took out max out of pocket from it on my medical plans in my model.
2. In some scenarios, taking Social Security early actually increases your account balances in the long run. I think that is because you would be taking money out of investments to cover the period before you finally take SS and missing out on the interest that money would have made.
3. Having money in a brokerage account (or any non-retirement account) is vital if you want to retire before age 59.5 I found that I have a higher percentage of money in pre-tax accounts than I should. Had I started maxing out my Roth 401K earlier, I would have had more contributions I could have taken out to cover expenses before I reach the tax-haven age of 59.5
4. I will likely be able to retire earlier than I thought (age 56.3). I knocked about 2 ĺ years off my previous estimate (SWEET!). The only thing holding me back from retiring earlier than that is not having enough non-retirement funds available to cover those years before my retirement accounts can be tapped without penalty. If I waited until my original estimate of 58.5, the account values just get crazy. ( like 5 million at age 100)
5. I will be forking over more than half a million dollars to Uncle Sam during retirement. Yikes! Can I get my own Humvee?


If you have a few minutes, take a look at it and see if you can poke any holes in it. If you find any gross errors please let me know. Iíve played with it quite a bit and I think Iíve worked out most of the kinks, but Iím sure more will show up if you get creative.

Thanks for your time,

Gene
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Old 03-02-2015, 03:43 PM   #2
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I don't know how to open an Amazon Cloud Drive file. My computer just seems to spin.

However,

It's not surprising that you'd favor starting SS early if you assume no inflation-driven increases in SS and investment returns of 6%.

If you "separate from service" after age 55, and leave some money in your employer's 401k (ie do not roll to an IRA), you can take money out of the 401k before age 59 without the 10% penalty. Employers will vary on whether they would allow a partial rollover.

Paying a lot of tax is a pain. But, if you're paying it because you've got a lot of income, it beats the alternative that most people experience.
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Old 03-02-2015, 04:41 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by Independent View Post
I don't know how to open an Amazon Cloud Drive file. My computer just seems to spin.

However,

It's not surprising that you'd favor starting SS early if you assume no inflation-driven increases in SS and investment returns of 6%.

If you "separate from service" after age 55, and leave some money in your employer's 401k (ie do not roll to an IRA), you can take money out of the 401k before age 59 without the 10% penalty. Employers will vary on whether they would allow a partial rollover.

Paying a lot of tax is a pain. But, if you're paying it because you've got a lot of income, it beats the alternative that most people experience.
I'll try to attach the file in this post.

I will research my 401K and see if they allow penalty-free withdrawal. That should let me retire even earlier. Thanks for the information.

I'm not losing sleep over the tax. The amount of income to me that it "represents" is pretty cool. Just a shocker to see the total I'll be paying.
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Old 03-02-2015, 04:54 PM   #4
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Here is the spreadsheet as a direct attachment.
Attached Files
File Type: xls MonsterRetirementBudgetShare.xls (1.45 MB, 178 views)
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Old 03-02-2015, 05:11 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by bobebob View Post


If you have a few minutes, take a look at it and see if you can poke any holes in it. If you find any gross errors please let me know. Iíve played with it quite a bit and I think Iíve worked out most of the kinks, but Iím sure more will show up if you get creative.

Thanks for your time,

Gene
There's a lot of detail in those files. Why don't you tell us how you figured what your spending needs are and will be in retirement.
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Old 03-02-2015, 05:25 PM   #6
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Have you run a Firecalc scenario estimate?
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Old 03-02-2015, 05:29 PM   #7
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Why max IRAs when you have a 401k? You could do up to 53k a year with combined before and after tax if your employer allows after tax in your 401k. You could do a Roth conversion ladder or 72t if you need funds prior to 59.5.

938k at 97.5 yo? Why leave so much on the table? You could retire earlier by lowering this amount. My plan is to go out with as close to zero as possible.

$480 a year for pest control? Wow, that is a lot of pests.

$190 a month for cable. I would look to chop this down somehow.

I think a program like Firecalc would be more realistic instead of assuming a set rate like 6% for your investments. It shows a probability of outcomes based on history of your asset allocation.

You can minimize taxes by holding equities long term and selling shares as needed for expenses, in after tax accounts.
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Old 03-02-2015, 05:29 PM   #8
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There's a lot of detail in those files. Why don't you tell us how you figured what your spending needs are and will be in retirement.
The top left of the first sheet of the spreadsheet has a detailed budget.

I took a pic of both retirement and current budget. I'll attach them. The one that says Budget at top is from my retirement spreadsheet.
Attached Images
File Type: jpg CurBudget copy.jpg (339.6 KB, 87 views)
File Type: jpg RetBudget copy.jpg (637.3 KB, 92 views)
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Old 03-02-2015, 06:56 PM   #9
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I have a category for my budget to account for one time unexpected expenses (buying a new car, roof needs replacing, traveling, ....). Did you account for that in your budget? Does your "spending" cover everything you can think of?
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Old 03-02-2015, 11:26 PM   #10
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Have you run a Firecalc scenario estimate?
Yes, and my current plan comes back at 84.6% success (to age 97.5). That seems pretty likely to succeed to me. If I only extend Firecalc to my estimated lifespan of 87 years it goes up to 93%. Pretty confident that would work especially since my budget is padded somewhat.

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Originally Posted by jim584672 View Post
Why max IRAs when you have a 401k? You could do up to 53k a year with combined before and after tax if your employer allows after tax in your 401k. You could do a Roth conversion ladder or 72t if you need funds prior to 59.5.

938k at 97.5 yo? Why leave so much on the table? You could retire earlier by lowering this amount. My plan is to go out with as close to zero as possible.

$480 a year for pest control? Wow, that is a lot of pests.

$190 a month for cable. I would look to chop this down somehow.

I think a program like Firecalc would be more realistic instead of assuming a set rate like 6% for your investments. It shows a probability of outcomes based on history of your asset allocation.

You can minimize taxes by holding equities long term and selling shares as needed for expenses, in after tax accounts.
Under the current scenario, the drawdown at age 97.5 is depleting the capital precipitously (inflation and increased taxes to cover it begin eroding quickly). And knowing myself, I doubt I will leave much on the table.

The cable bill includes high speed internet. But like I stated the budget is padded. I was looking to live well and have a means of reducing costs if necessary later. Rather than already be at a position where cost cutting would begin to put a crimp on my quality of life.

My plan is to leave my funds invested in retirement and pull out what is needed over time. A majority would be in pre-tax accounts, just because of my current balances in those accounts.

I am continuing to fully fund my Roth IRA only. That is mainly because the deposits can be pulled out without tax or penalty and I can use them to cover my pre-age 59.5 expenses. I am not putting any more money into Traditional IRA or 401k or Roth 401k. Currently, the rest of my investment money is going into an after-tax brokerage account.

I will have to look into the other suggestions you gave me (after-tax into 401k, Roth conversion ladder 72t). Any suggestions on how I can retire earlier and still have a successful retirement are more than welcome.

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I have a category for my budget to account for one time unexpected expenses (buying a new car, roof needs replacing, traveling, ....). Did you account for that in your budget? Does your "spending" cover everything you can think of?
One of the categories of my budget is $25,000 ever 5 years to buy either a new car or motorcycle. My budgeted spending money is also about twice what I spend now.
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Old 03-02-2015, 11:44 PM   #11
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6% average return might not be outrageously optimistic, but I'd be a bit more conservative and use 4%. If you can succeed with that you have plenty of head room.
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Old 03-03-2015, 03:17 AM   #12
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6% average return might not be outrageously optimistic, but I'd be a bit more conservative and use 4%. If you can succeed with that you have plenty of head room.
4% is just too conservative for me. I would still have to work until I was 65 and lose out on 10 years of fun in the sun.

In any case (that doesn't have me winning Powerball) I've still got at least 10 more years to go and can evaluate my nest egg and it's ability to keep me out of the cat food section of the grocery store before I pull the plug.
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Old 03-03-2015, 06:00 AM   #13
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The top left of the first sheet of the spreadsheet has a detailed budget.
I saw the list, thanks. My question isn't what items are on the list, it's how did you build it. Is it based on your current spending? how long have you tracked that? Are there things you want to do in retirement, and if so, how are you reflecting them in the budget? Some more questions here Some Important Questions to Answer Before Asking - Can I Retire?
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Old 03-03-2015, 06:56 AM   #14
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Pessimistic is 6% total return and 1.8% inflation?
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Old 03-03-2015, 07:06 AM   #15
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I am continuing to fully fund my Roth IRA only. That is mainly because the deposits can be pulled out without tax or penalty and I can use them to cover my pre-age 59.5 expenses. I am not putting any more money into Traditional IRA or 401k or Roth 401k. Currently, the rest of my investment money is going into an after-tax brokerage account.

One of the categories of my budget is $25,000 ever 5 years to buy either a new car or motorcycle. My budgeted spending money is also about twice what I spend now.
Seems like you could save some serious taxes be saving to a before tax account. Since it goes in at 25% and comes out 0-15%.

A new car every 5 years to me seems extravagant. For me 15-20 years is the norm, then again I am more "extreme" when it comes to saving.
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Old 03-03-2015, 09:06 AM   #16
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Yes, and my current plan comes back at 84.6% success (to age 97.5). That seems pretty likely to succeed to me. If I only extend Firecalc to my estimated lifespan of 87 years it goes up to 93%. ....
I'm pretty sure that the 'estimated lifespan of 87 years' that you reference is the median lifespan for someone your age. Vanguard has a LE calculator, I think it's linked at FIRECalc, or do a search. So you have a 50% chance of living past 87 - don't you want to plan for that likely event?


I'l echo the others - don't make static assumptions on growth and inflation - they will be wrong, because they are not static. Use a historical calculator to see how you would have fared over past scenarios.

Many of us do not feel comfortable with less than 100% historically safe WR, and use the outer-limits of life expectancy. After all, the future could be worse than the worst of the past, we might live a very long time, and we might have other surprises.

-ERD50
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Old 03-03-2015, 10:18 AM   #17
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Thanks, I could download the XLS file.

I think this is pretty important.
Quote:
My budgeted spending money is also about twice what I spend now.
If you're really planning twice your all-in current spending, then you've got a lot of cushion.

OTOH, if your income is $82,000, and FICA+FIT is about $20,000, and you're saving $8,000, it seems you must be spending about $56,000. Maybe the difference is a mortgage that you're paying off before you retire?

I tried changing your assumptions slightly. Instead of 1.8% inflation and 6.0% investment returns, I used 0.0% inflation and 4.2% investment returns.

I expected this to have very little impact on the portfolio depletion year. In fact, I assumed it would be favorable due to the way you handle Social Security.

Instead, I get the portfolio going to zero at age 89. That's a big contrast to the 1.8/6.0, which had an age 97 portfolio that was 8x your annual spending. Maybe I don't know how to change assumptions in your worksheet. Maybe there is a bug somewhere.

It's good that you've tried Firecalc. As you get closer to retirement, the results may diverge a little more since FireCalc's concern about order of returns tends to become more noticeable as you get closer to retirement.

Your short term decisions are whether you're saving enough for your target retirement date, and whether you're putting your money in the most efficient places. It seems to me you can answer the first question by trying various mixes of savings amounts and retirement dates in this spreadsheet to develop the confidence level that works for you. Just re-run this annually and fine tune as you go.

I'll let other people discuss the second question.
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Old 03-03-2015, 05:05 PM   #18
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I saw the list, thanks. My question isn't what items are on the list, it's how did you build it. Is it based on your current spending? how long have you tracked that? Are there things you want to do in retirement, and if so, how are you reflecting them in the budget? Some more questions here Some Important Questions to Answer Before Asking - Can I Retire?
It is based on my current spending (tracked daily since 2006).

I would like to do the occasional cruise or vacation trip. That's why I put $1200/mo spending money. It's about twice what I spend now.

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Pessimistic is 6% total return and 1.8% inflation?
Ok, I looked up the last 10 years of inflation and it was about 2.1% on average. So I'll spot you that my 1.8% wasn't even pessimistic.

However if you remain invested in the market over the periods of worst inflation, it doesn't look like you would be destroyed. I looked at CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of S&P from 1970 to 1983. Even in that period of double-digit inflation, your CAGR annualized return including inflation was +1.47% I don't plan on putting a significant amount of money in places where inflation can crater my finances (bonds, etc.).

However, I will up my "slightly pessimistic" assumption to 3.5%.

And regarding my return assumption: I feel that a 6% return is more than slightly pessimistic. The last 100 years the S&P has averaged 10% (CAGR Annualized return). That 10% is not inflation adjusted since I apply inflation to my expenses every year. (to avoid applying inflation twice in my model)

While I'm a little bummed that upping my inflation assumption puts my retirement date back to 58.5, I'm cautiously optimistic that my pre-retirement returns will be more in line with the 10% I'm hoping for and will still be able to retire at the earlier date. Note: I didn't say "planning for", just "hoping for".

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Seems like you could save some serious taxes be saving to a before tax account. Since it goes in at 25% and comes out 0-15%.

A new car every 5 years to me seems extravagant. For me 15-20 years is the norm, then again I am more "extreme" when it comes to saving.
My before tax accounts are pretty well funded. I have done this at the "expense" of not having much squirreled away in accounts I can tap before age 59.5 without penalty. Which is why besides fully funding my Roth IRA (because I can take the deposits out before 59.5 without penalty or tax), I have decided to put the rest of my future investment money into an after-tax brokerage account. Thus enabling me to retire pre-59.5 without incurring penalties on my withdrawals.

The automotive budget item is for a new car OR motorcycle every 5 years. I'm thinking a new car and motorcycle every 10 years is not overly extravagant. And I may stretch that a bit. But then I'd be spending some of that money on repairs anyway. At some point it will make more sense to get another vehicle.

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Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
I'm pretty sure that the 'estimated lifespan of 87 years' that you reference is the median lifespan for someone your age. Vanguard has a LE calculator, I think it's linked at FIRECalc, or do a search. So you have a 50% chance of living past 87 - don't you want to plan for that likely event?


I'l echo the others - don't make static assumptions on growth and inflation - they will be wrong, because they are not static. Use a historical calculator to see how you would have fared over past scenarios.

Many of us do not feel comfortable with less than 100% historically safe WR, and use the outer-limits of life expectancy. After all, the future could be worse than the worst of the past, we might live a very long time, and we might have other surprises.

-ERD50
I couldn't find the Vanguard LE Calculator.

I did find another pretty involved one that put my median at 82 years, and gave me a 25% chance of living past 89 years. I don't consider a retirement scenario acceptable unless it get me past 95 or so.

Static assumptions give me something to start with. And by using them in my spreadsheet they allow me to include the effects of healthcare, differences in pre and post tax funds. This lets me play with the numbers and see which scenario will work out best overall.

I do use Firecalc and will be using it much more as I get closer to pulling the trigger on retiring.

What percentage on FC do most of you consider acceptable? Getting all the way to 100% seems extreme.

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Originally Posted by Independent View Post
Thanks, I could download the XLS file.

I think this is pretty important. If you're really planning twice your all-in current spending, then you've got a lot of cushion.

OTOH, if your income is $82,000, and FICA+FIT is about $20,000, and you're saving $8,000, it seems you must be spending about $56,000. Maybe the difference is a mortgage that you're paying off before you retire?

I tried changing your assumptions slightly. Instead of 1.8% inflation and 6.0% investment returns, I used 0.0% inflation and 4.2% investment returns.

I expected this to have very little impact on the portfolio depletion year. In fact, I assumed it would be favorable due to the way you handle Social Security.

Instead, I get the portfolio going to zero at age 89. That's a big contrast to the 1.8/6.0, which had an age 97 portfolio that was 8x your annual spending. Maybe I don't know how to change assumptions in your worksheet. Maybe there is a bug somewhere.

It's good that you've tried Firecalc. As you get closer to retirement, the results may diverge a little more since FireCalc's concern about order of returns tends to become more noticeable as you get closer to retirement.

Your short term decisions are whether you're saving enough for your target retirement date, and whether you're putting your money in the most efficient places. It seems to me you can answer the first question by trying various mixes of savings amounts and retirement dates in this spreadsheet to develop the confidence level that works for you. Just re-run this annually and fine tune as you go.

I'll let other people discuss the second question.
Part of the difference is the mortgage which should be paid off or very close by retirement. Only my personal spending was doubled outright. The other bidget items were padded extra, but not doubled.

My total retirement savings last year was $14,400 (includes HSA, IRA and 401K). Plus my employer kicked in $4k on my 401K. I anticipate my contributions this year will be about $16,800 (plus employer).

My spreadsheet doesn't consider inflation in the accumulation phase, only in the expenses post-retirement. I will of course update the budget periodically and certainly just before retirement. But that is why the 0% inflation didn't have a positive effect on the pre-retirement accumulation and all you saw was the negative effect of the lower return assumption.

This spreadsheet just gives me a model to monitor my nest egg and decide when might be a good time to retire. FireCalc will also play a big part in my decision to finally pull the trigger and retire.

Annually? I'm way more anal-retentive than that! I'll be updating the accumulation balances with actual results monthly and monitoring the effect.
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Old 03-03-2015, 05:19 PM   #19
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However, I will up my "slightly pessimistic" [ inflation ] assumption to 3.5%.

And regarding my return assumption: I feel that a 6% return is more than slightly pessimistic.
That gives you a net investment return of 2.5%, which I think is reasonable, but not necessarily pessimistic IMO.
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Old 03-03-2015, 05:28 PM   #20
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4% is just too conservative for me. I would still have to work until I was 65 and lose out on 10 years of fun in the sun.

In any case (that doesn't have me winning Powerball) I've still got at least 10 more years to go and can evaluate my nest egg and it's ability to keep me out of the cat food section of the grocery store before I pull the plug.
You can put in an interest rate that will tell you want ever you want, but is it appropriate. If you are ok with 6% then go with it. I'm a lot more cautious and use 4% return and 3% inflation. I suppose its the engineer in me, I design for the worst case scenario, not the best or even the average.
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