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New 14 Year Secular Bull Market?
Old 11-15-2014, 09:43 PM   #1
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New 14 Year Secular Bull Market?

The Best Long-Term Stock Market Indicator I’ve Found… - Bonner & Partners

This was posted on Bill Bonner's blog though it comes from Megatrends Investing... interesting theory around market trend predictions and the Golden Ratio, having to do with dominant age groups.
Interested in hearing what others on this (very well read and articulate) forum have to say about this article!
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Old 11-15-2014, 09:55 PM   #2
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Hindsight is 20/20. Did this man predict that 2000 thru 2013 would be a Long Term Secular Bull Market with a few cyclical bull markets? No indicator works 100% all the time.
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Old 11-16-2014, 07:47 AM   #3
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What may be different this time is that the over-65 age group is growing even faster, and this may be a financial burden (Medicare, Medicaid, and SS) on both younger groups.
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Old 11-16-2014, 08:45 AM   #4
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Housel at TMF is also onto this demographic trend. It sounds reasonable to me.
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Old 11-16-2014, 09:45 AM   #5
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The most dangerous four words:

"This time it's different"
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Old 11-16-2014, 09:51 AM   #6
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This page has a link for a later view of the DJIA over 117 years, and shows the bear and bull thingies.

Over the last 117 years, the stock market has rewarded some investors with long-term growth. History shows that the equity market enters long periods of high returns, followed by lengthy periods of lower ones.

Now that we're settling into the greatest bull market ever...
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Old 11-16-2014, 09:56 AM   #7
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Is there an inflation-corrected version of that 117 year chart?

Curious if it shows the same picture.

[Edit] Also that chart is not total return (excludes dividends).
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Old 11-16-2014, 10:49 AM   #8
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Is there an inflation-corrected version of that 117 year chart?

Curious if it shows the same picture.

[Edit] Also that chart is not total return (excludes dividends).

Here is a link to a web site that provides the returns on the s&P 500 or earlier equivalent since 1871. CAGR of the Stock Market: Annualized Returns of the S&P 500 Note that inflation adjusted return since 1871 is 8.55% or 1 dollar in 1871 has become $13,281 today. An added data point if you divide that time in two periods in 1942 you get 8.02% or $1 to $78.16 and from 1942 to 2013 you get 9.09% and $169.92.
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Old 11-16-2014, 11:25 AM   #9
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Quote:
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Is there an inflation-corrected version of that 117 year chart?

Curious if it shows the same picture.

[Edit] Also that chart is not total return (excludes dividends).
Excellent question. There are links on the site, and you might ask.

I know some here do have such data stored locally and they could provide it. I know the trevh backtest sheet has returns and inflation going back to 1972, for example. With or without dividends? Have to look around for sources.
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Old 11-16-2014, 02:15 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Totoro View Post
Is there an inflation-corrected version of that 117 year chart?

Curious if it shows the same picture.

[Edit] Also that chart is not total return (excludes dividends).
Don't know if this is what you want to see. It goes only till 2009

Inflation adjusted SP500 returns 1900-2009

S&P 500: Inflation Adjusted Chart Looks a Little Different | Seeking Alpha
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Old 11-16-2014, 02:39 PM   #11
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I think so, can't really tell since I get a "please register" overlay.
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Old 11-16-2014, 02:48 PM   #12
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I think so, can't really tell since I get a "please register" overlay.
That's puzzling...! I do not get that but all my pop-ups are blocked. If they are not already, give that a try.

Computer gurus might be able to clear this. Why do some people bring up a web page with no problem and others report (I know I get them) getting some sort of interference requiring them to do something?
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Old 11-16-2014, 02:51 PM   #13
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I can't figure out how to insert an image here. Sorry.
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Old 11-16-2014, 06:38 PM   #14
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I think so, can't really tell since I get a "please register" overlay.
You need a Seeking Alpha subscription.
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Old 11-16-2014, 06:41 PM   #15
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That's puzzling...! I do not get that but all my pop-ups are blocked. If they are not already, give that a try.

Computer gurus might be able to clear this. Why do some people bring up a web page with no problem and others report (I know I get them) getting some sort of interference requiring them to do something?
You are a subscriber, and other SA subscribers see all of the article.
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Old 11-16-2014, 06:43 PM   #16
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You are a subscriber, and other SA subscribers see all of the article.
Ney. I have not subscrobe. Unless there was a free subscription with this new computer I have. Up in the corner it says to "login/join now." I have no knowledge of ever joining this site
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