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New chart shows real return ....
Old 01-10-2011, 05:51 AM   #1
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New chart shows real return ....

I thought folks here should be made aware of an interactive chart that a poster MossySF at Bogleheads has created. It stems from a chart in the NYTimes from a chart from Crestmont. The chart shows real-returns based on starting and ending years for stock/bond/cash/gold asset allocations that you specify.

Here's a link to the chart: Annualized Real Returns by Starting & Ending Year

And here's the Bogleheads' link to the discussion: Bogleheads :: View topic - Great Chart: S&P returns by in & out date

Another poster Lbill wrote:
An absolutely critical chart that should be included in every fund flyer alongside those mountain charts that show how incredibly rich you will become by investing in stocks. Your fate is determined by the short period you are actually in the market. But there's more: it will be determined by the even shorter period during which you have the most at stake - which for many of us is just the 10-15 years during which we are at the peak of our earning and contributing. The poor soul who turned 54 at the turn of century and was enjoying his highest level career position and job earnings is now 65, and hasn't gotten much reward from religiously socking away his 60-70% into stocks in his 401(k).

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Old 01-10-2011, 06:29 AM   #2
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Wow, what a great tool. Very impressive programming.

Thanks for posting.

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Old 01-10-2011, 07:01 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by Htown Harry View Post
Thanks for posting.
+1 Wow!
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Old 01-10-2011, 07:56 AM   #4
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Wow indeed! I see many hours of my life getting sucked into this thing

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Old 01-10-2011, 12:39 PM   #5
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Very nice-- except for the Bogleheads poster with the red-green perception issues.

Those ugly red spots grow pretty quickly as one raises the requirement on real returns... it's also tempting for the human eyeball to declare a 30-year pattern.

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Old 01-10-2011, 01:44 PM   #6
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Um...I hate to ask but I gotta do it.

Are the numerals in white text with black background representing calendar years (1929) or a person's age (29) ?

UPDATE: Never mind, I figured it out. I had to scroll to the upper values on the axes to see the end values.
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Old 01-10-2011, 02:31 PM   #7
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Cool chart. It would be even cooler if it could tell you what would happen if you're taking an x% annual withdrawal adjusted for inflation.

Any idea if these numbers are adjusted for fees & taxes? The chart on the nytimes has been adjusted.
Average real annual returnIncludes dividends, average taxes and fees. Adjusted for inflation.

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Old 01-10-2011, 03:22 PM   #8
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I'd also love to see this as a planned withdrawal chart. The boxes would show % of original balance.

Note that if you scroll over individual boxes they will show the exact return.

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