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Old 03-29-2013, 07:54 AM   #21
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IMHO, the market can rise more, because it is based upon the world views of a small group of wealthy funds and people that are dissociated from the USA economy
I'd be more concerned about the effect of Federal Reserve policy than the small group of wealthy investors to whom you refer.
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Old 03-29-2013, 09:51 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by JoeWras View Post
So I joined this site last fall and woke up to the fact I had waaaay too much cash in my AA. The good suggestion here was to add it via value averaging, especially since I felt (at the time) that market was high then.

So, I'm executing that plan per month (for two years) and every buy is under my target. I'm waiting for a crash so I can put more in, but it isn't happening! I'm having a hard time getting rid of my cash in the market with that strategy.
That's because "value averaging" is not, in fact, a good strategy. It sounds good, but when you actually sit down and look at it work through the numbers, it isn't.

Google "problems with value averaging"
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Old 03-29-2013, 11:57 AM   #23
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I look to sell toppy stocks. This month I've sold 4; bought only 1; 25% cash right now for more opportunities.
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Old 03-29-2013, 12:01 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by FIRE'd@51 View Post
I'd be more concerned about the effect of Federal Reserve policy than the small group of wealthy investors to whom you refer.
Well then there is that!
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Old 03-29-2013, 01:04 PM   #25
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I love this run, but I am keeping my finger on the dump button. 401K has a couple of fixed income funds I can run to when I get scared. 401K is up almost 10% this year so far, and I would really like to chalk up another 10%+ return.

I do know that if I could count on my 401K to shed $75000 in profits every quarter, I would be one happy guy.
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Old 03-29-2013, 08:03 PM   #26
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That's because "value averaging" is not, in fact, a good strategy. It sounds good, but when you actually sit down and look at it work through the numbers, it isn't.

Google "problems with value averaging"
I respectfully disagree. I have used it for over 20 years with good results.
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Old 03-29-2013, 08:15 PM   #27
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I respectfully disagree. I have used it for over 20 years with good results.
I'm going to stick with it and see how it works out.
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Old 03-30-2013, 09:06 AM   #28
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Google "problems with value averaging"
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Old 03-30-2013, 09:07 AM   #29
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Just pinch me. Nestegg and NW are ~13-14% more than when I retired at the end of 2011. Whee!!

It doesn't count if it is struckthrough, right?
We're only up 7.5% (after withdrawals), though still at a lifetime high. What are your FA rates?
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Old 03-30-2013, 09:13 AM   #30
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Just pinch me. Nestegg and NW are ~13-14% more than when I retired at the end of 2011. Whee!!

It doesn't count if it is struckthrough, right?
Striking through is like a dagger through. Double jinx.
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Old 03-30-2013, 09:17 AM   #31
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Just make sure you have stops put in and advance them up as the market rises.
Stops have hurt a lot of people. It can be an almost guaranteed sell low, and buy when? Some people on this forum experienced some significant pain during the 'flash crash'.

I have yet to find a mutual fund that uses this technique to deliver superior results.

-ERD50
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Old 03-30-2013, 10:50 AM   #32
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Just pinch me. Nestegg and NW are ~13-14% more than when I retired at the end of 2011. Whee!!

It doesn't count if it is struckthrough, right?
Fortunately the power of whee can be invoked solely by W(hee)2R who wisely remains wheeless so far .
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Old 03-30-2013, 11:16 AM   #33
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We're only up 7.5% (after withdrawals), though still at a lifetime high. What are your FA rates?
We are up 2.5% after withdrawals. What is FA?
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Old 03-30-2013, 12:06 PM   #34
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We're only up 7.5% (after withdrawals), though still at a lifetime high. What are your FA rates?
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We are up 2.5% after withdrawals. What is FA?
Sorry Midpack, I don't get what an FA rate is. Please enlighten us.
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Old 03-30-2013, 12:08 PM   #35
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Sorry Midpack, I don't get what an FA rate is. Please enlighten us.
Sorry, Financial Advisor, and FP = Financial Planner.
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Old 03-30-2013, 07:29 PM   #36
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Sorry, Financial Advisor, and FP = Financial Planner.
Advisor rates are 0.00%, I DIY. Broadly 60% equities/40% fixed but I have done some strategic rebalancing over the last 12-15 months.
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Old 03-30-2013, 08:01 PM   #37
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Stops have hurt a lot of people. It can be an almost guaranteed sell low, and buy when? Some people on this forum experienced some significant pain during the 'flash crash'.

I have yet to find a mutual fund that uses this technique to deliver superior results.

-ERD50
That reminds me of the first and only! time I've used a stop loss. Back in 71 or so as a sophisticated sophomore I used some of my hard earned burger joint money to buy some shares of some stock or another. Having read about investing and being very well informed about such things I put in a stop loss at about 10% below what I bought it for. Much to my surprise, the paper next day reported a sale of just one lot, at precisely my stop loss point. Thus I learned there be sharks out there, ready to pounce as needed to deliver some much needed education...
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Old 04-01-2013, 02:46 PM   #38
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I'm waiting for a crash so I can put more in, but it isn't happening! I'm having a hard time getting rid of my cash in the market with that strategy.
I had to retire early (actually, I saw the iceburg coming and bailed, but the Titanic finally sank!) we mostly got out because our priority then (EOY 2011) was preserving our NE. Our IRAs have remained in VG STAR, so some of our investments have ridden up this market. At least we've got that going for us, which is nice.

Would also like to get back in though, and am considering VCA from bonds and cash into equity funds. But if there is a significant pullback (~5% would be nice), think we'll plow back in, keeping about a 50/50 split.
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