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Old 08-07-2008, 02:03 PM   #41
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30 year mortgage rates are based on the 10 year t-bill plus a premium. the 10 year has gone from 3.7% or so to the low 4%'s in the last year, but the trend is up since 2005
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Old 08-07-2008, 02:07 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by al_bundy View Post
30 year mortgage rates are based on the 10 year t-bill plus a premium. the 10 year has gone from 3.7% or so to the low 4%'s in the last year, but the trend is up since 2005
I think you mean 10 year T-Note, as there has never been such a thing as a 10-year T-bill.
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Old 08-07-2008, 02:08 PM   #43
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Where is this huge wave of first-time buyers? In the Gen-Ys, the new immigrants, or what? I hope you're right, but please provide some explanation.
people do want to buy homes, but no one wants to pay more than 30% of gross income. 2005 some markets especially in california the median house was 10 times income
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50% of Fannie Mae's Losses were Alt-A Mortgages
Old 08-08-2008, 09:23 AM   #44
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50% of Fannie Mae's Losses were Alt-A Mortgages

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Originally Posted by lets-retire View Post
Many of the people who have the Alt-A loans are a bit better off and have a better paying job (read more responsible and less likely to just walk away). The "investors" who obtained these loans have for the most part left the Alt-A market.
50% of Fannie Mae's losses in the second quarter of 2008 were from Alt-A mortgage loans, while only 11% of Fannie's mortgages were ALT-A as of June 30.


Free Preview - WSJ.com

Ladelfina pointed us to an interesting link in a post on this thread that shows that a much higher percentage of these Alt-A loans are non-owner occupied. With so many of these loans being rentals, it should come as as no surprise that Alt-A's currently account for half of FNMA's recent losses.

Calculated Risk: Alt-A: The New Home of Subprime?
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Old 08-08-2008, 09:27 AM   #45
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FNMA requires you to disclose if you are buying as an investor, but back in 2003-2005 i used to read mortgage brokers would tell people to just lie on the application because no one would ever find out
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Old 08-08-2008, 09:47 AM   #46
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Retire Soon--I think I might have confused what has happened compared to what is happening in the mortgage market.

al--There has been rather strict guidelines for the issuance of mortgages with banks. Enforcement of the regulations would/could have prevented much of the mess we are currently in. The DW denied many loans during the height of the craze because it was obvious the borrower was not being honest on the application. Much of the problem is a result of the borrowers not reading the information provided, lying, or allowing the originator to fudge paperwork designed to protect the borrower.
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Old 08-08-2008, 02:52 PM   #47
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At the risk of repetition, if you want to really know what is happening in the housing market and the economy in general, frequently visit


The Housing Bubble Blog


You're not going to like it.
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Old 08-08-2008, 03:12 PM   #48
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Thanks, but instead of going to a blog, which is nothing more than an opinion, I think I'll pay attention to a bit more reliable information.
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Old 08-09-2008, 02:31 AM   #49
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lets-retire, why don't you take a look at the blog content before making pronouncements? This particular blog is basically zero opinion: it is a compendium of excerpts from current published housing-related news articles, often with plenty of stats. (I'd have to say it is the most opinion-free blog I have ever encountered! If you want opinions you'll find plenty in the comments, though.)

I'm not sure where you think you will get more 'reliable information'.. maybe you could share that with us?

It's not a particularly easy format to read through, though, and I prefer Calculated Risk on housing-- a little more focused and less repetitive.
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Old 08-09-2008, 06:08 AM   #50
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I did look at it. It looks like sound bite news to me. Almost anybody can find a quote to support thier opinion, even take it out of context.
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Old 08-09-2008, 01:37 PM   #51
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I did look at it. It looks like sound bite news to me. Almost anybody can find a quote to support thier opinion, even take it out of context.

I understand your point of view on blogs. Most are mere opinion. But take a look at this one. Dr. Housing Bubble Blog It is research based and all the facts are sourced to well recognized media. As a university writing instructor, I taught research and I understand how to source information. This blog is very well done, using research as a basis for his analysis in an honest manner.
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Old 08-09-2008, 02:21 PM   #52
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I taught research and I understand how to source information. This blog is very well done, using research as a basis for his analysis in an honest manner.
In MLA style I trust.
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Old 08-09-2008, 02:51 PM   #53
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What the hell is he taking donations for a blog? LOL..ok
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Old 08-09-2008, 02:53 PM   #54
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Guess the Google ads weren't working.
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Old 08-09-2008, 02:54 PM   #55
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Oh maybe this quality research takes a good deal of money. My mistake.
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Old 08-09-2008, 04:37 PM   #56
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I understand your point of view on blogs. Most are mere opinion. But take a look at this one. Dr. Housing Bubble Blog It is research based and all the facts are sourced to well recognized media. As a university writing instructor, I taught research and I understand how to source information. This blog is very well done, using research as a basis for his analysis in an honest manner.
And in Dr. Housing Bubble Blogs own words.....

"The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author(s) who may or may not have a position in any company or advertiser referenced above."

Bubble Blog Buyer Beware!
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Old 08-09-2008, 05:20 PM   #57
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Looking at things from the other side of the coin...

...does anyone here put much stock in information that comes from politicians, bureaucrats or the main stream media?
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Old 08-09-2008, 07:57 PM   #58
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I'm right in the middle of this mortgage mess. Everyday I have to deal with delinquent loans. Interest rates and subprime borrowers have very little to do with the rise in foreclosures. Loan to value is the main culprit. Most of the subprime borrowers had high loan to value loans and when house prices plummeted were left owing more than the house was worth.

In California, Arizona, Nevada and Florida, many borrowers are 40% underwater. Ethics aside, the best choice is to turn in the keys. The scary thing is that homes are still substantially overvalued from a historic perspective. Like the tech bubble, this housing crisis still has a long way to go before it gets better.

As for a second wave of alt A borrowers going into foreclosure, it will happen. It has already started and if values drop more, many more of these borrowers will choose to walk away from a bad investment. Most these borrowers can make their payments, but like subprime borrowers, choose not to.

In my opinion, the only option in the short term would be banks reducing loan amounts. Some are already doing this and it is a hard pill to swallow. Regardless, this crisis will end and house prices will rise, but not this year and probably not next.
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Old 08-09-2008, 08:53 PM   #59
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In California, Arizona, Nevada and Florida, many borrowers are 40% underwater.
That would be surprising since many areas havent declined by that much, and most borrowers in the borrower universe didnt buy or refinance during the peak period.

Could it be possible that in the borrower universe, some total morons who had their loans done by complete idiots in 2004-2005 are 40% underwater?
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Old 08-09-2008, 08:57 PM   #60
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Looking at things from the other side of the coin...

...does anyone here put much stock in information that comes from politicians, bureaucrats or the main stream media?
Actually I think there is a grain of truth in most sources. The danger is when you find one source and claim it as gospel
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