NEWSFLASH: Bernstein slams early retirement!!!

[moghopper]

Originally Posted by HaHa

who is to tell me that isn't productive?

This guy?

[Nords]

Originally Posted by . . . Yrs to Go

Okay.* I know I'm going to get flamed for this, and probably deserve to, but "more productive in ER?"* Really?* I guess its possible but there is no indication of that in the "What do you do all day thread" http://early-retirement.org/forums/i...59689#msg59689

Seems like most people's daily routines involved domestic chores, exercising, reading, and surfing the internet.* Although I think most people would be envious of that lifestyle I don't think many would define it as "productive."

Don't forget surfing the ocean, too!

Here's what I told Bernstein on M*'s Vanguard Diehards board:
"I'm not even 45 yet and I've been early retired for over three years. Those three years have been some of the most productive in my life-- especially for my family-- despite over two decades in the U.S. Navy's submarine force. *When I look back over my life, hopefully six or seven decades from now, I'll be proud of my service. *But I'll be even more proud of being able to devote all my time & attention to my spouse, my kid, my elders, and my community. *I don't know what I'll be doing every day for the next decade, but I'm pretty sure that it won't involve 250 days/year in an office chasing earned income."

I define "productivity" as spending time with my family, improving my house/yard/possessions, entertaining myself, staying in shape, and pursuing my interests. *By that definition I'm more productive than I ever dreamed I could be. *Some days I'm so productive that I can barely drag my butt out of the recliner to go surfing. *But if productivity was defined by earned income then I'd be even less productive than Ken Lay or Bernie Ebbers were to their employees & stockholders.

So, YTG, how do you define productivity?

Reading the rest of the board's responses, I think I'll be spending my quality productive time at Ha's house...

[Spanky]

The word "productive" simply means being effective in achieving specified results. Therefore, you can be productive regardless of employment status.

[eridanus]

Originally Posted by Martha

When I was in my 30s I never would have imagined how much I would spend today on communications--cell phones, broad band internet, satellite TV, etc.

Wasn't this discussed in YMOYL? Our "needs" increase as technology increases. That one-speed bike now "needs" to have front and rear shocks and self-healing tires.

I have broad band only; the rest, I've found, don't work with my lifestyle. No one can predict what whiz-bang gadget comes along but then I also wouldn't have predicted that my mortgage would've dropped substantially due to lowered interest rates.

[laurence]

Originally Posted by HaHa

So I guess that at least theoretically, if what I like to do is watch erotic videos and drink or smoke hash all day, who is to tell me that isn't productive?

This could definitely lead to (re)productive behavior!

All I know is I'm ready to go to your next party!

[wabmester]

Originally Posted by Cut-Throat

Well, I'm not sure this message negates anything in the 'four pillars'. As I remember it, the four pillars touted index investing over active investing. I really don't recall anything about SWRs and retirement.

Well, you remembered one of the pillars correctly. But I suspect his next book may be about why passive index investing no longer works.

What a lot of people here seem to take home from 4-pillars is that 1) asset allocation a la the efficient frontier can save your bacon, 2) higher risk = higher reward, and 3) future returns can be estimated with the "Gordon equation."

What Bernstein is essentially saying now, which he doesn't clearly state in the book, is that 1) the efficient frontier is a moving target, so don't put too much faith in your asset allocation, 2) the future risk premium may decline (as it has been for years now), and 3) the longer your investment horizon, the less you'll be able to extrapolate historical growth.

Certainly nothing revolutionary here, but it's refreshing to hear some of the things he's saying. The only certainty is uncertainty. Smart investors will try to reduce the unknowns, and one way to do that is to continue working (not that there's anything wrong with that ).

[astromeria]

My husband is pleased with my "productivity," beings how I now do almost all of the errands and chores since he's still at work and I'm not.

My brother is pleased that I was able to stay with him during his recent hospitalization, feed him when he was unable to feed himself, and deliver his favorite home-cooked meals and take time to chat while he's recuperating at home this week.

My daughter is pleased that I was able to take her wedding gown shopping and help her with wedding arrangements.

My elderly mother is pleased that I can spend more time with her.

My former co-workers are pleased that I have time to edit their resumes and give moral support after their big layoff just weeks after I retired.

And I haven't even figured out what sort of volunteer work I'd like to do yet.

[SteveR]

"Productive" is in the eye of the beholder.

Productive in RE cannot be defined in the same way as productive in a job or business.

Productive in retirement IS doing domestic chores that you had to pay some one else to do while working. It IS using one's time instead of money to do things that were paid services before, e.g., lawn work, house keeping, cooking instead of eating out, scouting for sales instead of implulse purchased due to time constraints, etc.

RE productivity could also be being more productive with your health through exercise and eating right and through less stress.

[Eagle43]

Most of the "work" I did for MegaCorp was unproductive. When I was honest with myself I would admit it. Meaningless bureacratic nonsense that would be hard to find now, since I'm gone for nearly two years.

Also, I don't think that my MegaCorp was alone. Corporate and government jobs take an energetic, enthusiastic individual and grinds him/her down. Had I any sense, I would have left Mega-Corp in about two weeks, once I broke the code. A lot of puffed up people trying to look busy and who are supported by a few brilliant engineers.

Ross Perot had a great line a few years ago. He was talking about the differences between his company and General Motors. His line. At (Perot Inc.? I forget the name), when we see a snake, we kill it. At GM, when we see a snake, we call a meeting. He was spot on. I believe there are thousands of people who trudge off daily to work at their MegaCorps, who know this work is nonsense, but who are trapped by the golden handcuffs. I have shed the handcuffs, am receiving the gold, and am no longer trapped. Please continue to be productive, if you must, if you believe you are. I'll take the gold.

[BigMoneyJim]

Originally Posted by Eagle43

At (Perot Inc.? I forget the name)

EDS, IIRC. I've done some vendor support work for them. Don't think I'd want to work for him or his company (apparently he sees lots of snakes), but that's neither here nor there.

[moghopper]

Originally Posted by BigMoneyJim

EDS, IIRC. I've done some vendor support work for them. Don't think I'd want to work for him or his company (apparently he sees lots of snakes), but that's neither here nor there.

Was he still at EDS then? I guess that makes sense with the GM reference. But he had sold EDS and founded "PerotSystems" by 1988.

[BigMoneyJim]

Originally Posted by moghopper

Was he still at EDS then? I guess that makes sense with the GM reference. But he had sold EDS and founded "PerotSystems" by 1988.

Well, color me stupid . A Google search confirms what you say. I had several brief visits at EDS HQ in the 90's and heard some Perot stories, but I guess they were old stories.

[rmark]

Remember, most of the early retirement studies focus on U.S data (easy to come by and good quality) to the exclusion of all of the other markets that have existed (does Belgian planning depend on past 2% real returns?) with investing costs are ignored or downplayed (Vanguard at .18% wasn't available in 1926, so why is it assumed?). Having read Bernsteins 'Birth of Plenty', I think he implying that the vagaries of longer life times and a broader reading of world history make successful early retirement a more chancy proposition than is realized.* In general, wages have risen about 1% above the inflation rate, so a retiree replacing income on a inflation adjusted basis slowly falls behind wage earners (see efficent frontier online, he talks about in one of retirement planning from hell articles). ‘Four Pillars’ does mention withdrawal rates near the last chapter, suggesting that with expected returns at the time of printing, withdrawal without touching capital might be only 2%.* ‘Your money or Your Life’, while good philosophy, is poor financially, suggesting spending all of the income from long term gov’t. bonds with no reinvestment against future inflation. I personally assume 0% net real after taxes from ever more conservative portfolios (attempting to maintain level spending until late life), which is more consistent with world market averages, but conservative for past U.S. history.

[rmark]

http://faculty.fuqua.duke.edu/~charv...l_optimism.pdf

http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/lin...s/?cookieSet=1

[Martha]

Originally Posted by rmark

http://faculty.fuqua.duke.edu/~charv...l_optimism.pdf

HaHa, this is for you.

[rmark]

Plus it makes the math easier - Divide after tax fixed pensions and mixed portfolios annually over remaining IRS life expectancy, matching required minimum distributions requirements from defined contribution plans.

SS may be a fully income taxed fixed pension after non-cola taxes and med B deducted.
Increasing percent withdrawal uses capital trying to keep spending level until late life.
Broad diversification tends to dampen spending swings from changing portfolio values.

I was really productive this morning. I spent $175 at the grocery store for our trip to Montana trout fishing next week.

I hope the trout fishing is productive also next week. Even though we throw them all back, it sure feels productive to torture play them on the line for awhile. 8)

[sgeeeee]

Originally Posted by Cut-Throat

I was really productive this morning. I spent $175 at the grocery store for our trip to Montana trout fishing next week.*

I hope the trout fishing is productive also next week. Even though we throw them all back, it sure feels productive to torture play them on the line for awhile. 8)

I'm having a productive week too. We unpacked from our week near Grand Junction, CO, did laundry, aired out the camping gear, downloaded our GPS data, mowed the lawn, dealt with the mail, and shopped for our trip next week to Sprinfield, CO. This is a great time of year to be camping at these altitudes. Beats the Phoenix heat right now.

[rmark]

Catching numerous trout with inexpensive Zebco reel and salmon eggs while standing in feezing water in jeans and tennis shoes WHILE Eddie Baur outfitted fly fisherman (including hats, wicker creel and SUV) don't catch a thing *- PRICELESS. I wore those same salmon egg soaked pants several days in a row - boy were they damp and cold in the morning.