NEWSFLASH: Bernstein slams early retirement!!!

[Nords]

Intercst posted earlier today on Bernstein's contribution to this M* thread on "psychotic investors". (I know, I know, redundant.)

Things have taken an odd turn in the last eight hours. ***** has been an active poster on the M* boards and has actually invited Bernstein to join us here at Early-Retirement.org. However before Dory rolls out the red cybercarpet we should take these Bernstein quotes into consideration:
To the person who wants to retire at age 45 or 50, I say lots of luck; while it's possible he or she may be able to withdraw 5% per year of the intitial inflation-adjusted corpus, I can easily conceive of circumstances in which even 2% may be too much. Further, with a time horizon that long, one has to face up to the reality that "merely" keeping up with inflation will seriously disadvantage him or her regarding wage earners, whose earnings will be increasing along with productivity increases.

My advice? Forget about retiring at 45; you're better off being a productive human being as long as you can, and you'll certainly worry a lot less about your money running out.

Admittedly everything Bernstein knows about ERs so far is being provided by *****. But while Bernstein may know enough to see that ***** is not quite yet ready for the primetime ER experience, I think those quotes inappropriately equate "being a productive human being" with "working for earned income".

This really hurts, considering that it's coming from the guy who taught me how to allocate my assets and beat inflation for six decades. And considering who's teaching him so far, I'm willing to give Bernstein another chance to show that ER makes humans even more productive than work ever could. But in the tradition started by the ancient Hawaiians, I'm also ready to burn my copy of Four Pillars at sunrise on Makapu'u Point. Who's with me?!?

 

[brewer12345]

Eh, don't get so excited. The guy is making statements that appear tomake sense, aside from the jab about staying productive. I suspect that that particular view comes in part from the professorial mindset. Ever known a tenured, research-driven professor personally? They live the life of the mind and their work is a big part of that. Asking a professor to imagine ER is like asking a fisk what it would be like to be out of the water.

 

[shiny]

Maybe he hasn't read "Your Money or Your Life" we should recommend it to him.

I do not have my own copy to burn, I will have to do it in effigy.

 

[retire@40]

My advice? Forget about retiring at 45; you're better off being a productive human being as long as you can, and you'll certainly worry a lot less about your money running out.

So I guess retiring at 40 is out of the question. Oh well, there goes my 20 year plan. Thanks for ruining my Christmas, Bernstein.

 

[maddythebeagle]

whose earnings will be increasing along with productivity increases.

huh? I thought the trend was "to do more with less"? What wage increases are we waiting for?

 

[Martha]

Nords, I thought your reply to Bernstein was excellent. Maybe he will show up here.

Isn't there at least something of a point to his statement that he doesnt have an answer to the SWR for very early retirees because there are too many variables? I have thought about this on occasion when someone plans to retire in their 30s and live on $40,000 a year from their million dollar portfolio. My problem is the difficulty of estimating expenses into the future when you are that young. Maybe spouses and kids are in the future. Health changes. Interests change. The world will change. When I was in my 30s I never would have imagined how much I would spend today on communications--cell phones, broad band internet, satellite TV, etc. Because of these issues, I always have wanted plenty of "fluff" in my budget.

Not to raise the ghost of **** or anything. My point isn't a challenge to the "conventional methodology."

 

[Marshac]

huh? I thought the trend was "to do more with less"? What wage increases are we waiting for?

Didn't you get the memo? Corporations have decided to share their increased earnings with employees in the form of a huge Christmas bonus! Oh wait.... that was my dream last night.... sorry... 1.5% raise (non-COLAd) for you this year.

 

[azanon]

This really hurts, considering that it's coming from the guy who taught me how to allocate my assets and beat inflation for six decades.  And considering who's teaching him so far, I'm willing to give Bernstein another chance to show that ER makes humans even more productive than work ever could.  But in the tradition started by the ancient Hawaiians, I'm also ready to burn my copy of Four Pillars at sunrise on Makapu'u Point.  Who's with me?!?

Just because you disagree with someone on a particular point, is no reason to excommunicate yourself from them.   There's no one on this planet that i agree with everything they say.

 

[wabmester]

Whew, I'm glad somebody has finally taken the Bernstein Bible down a notch. Of course, Bernstein was the only guy who could do it. All he is saying is that the future may be different than the past, and the best way to hedge your investment returns is to keep working. Common sense. *****' message is very different, and much less sensical.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

I'm also ready to burn my copy of Four Pillars at sunrise on Makapu'u Point. Who's with me?!?

I'll do it. My library is gonna be pissed though.

How do we know its bernstein anyhow?

I feel pretty dang productive these days. Not worried much about having retired at 39 and having 40+ years ahead of me either considering that my net worth has gone up sharply each and every year since I quit working...

I also still havent looked at what my 'withdrawal rate' is. I spend what I need to spend, dont do anything stupid, and leave it at that.

 

[razztazz]

My advice? Forget about retiring at 45; you're better off being a productive human being as long as you can, and you'll certainly worry a lot less about your money running out.

I wonder how much of a hard-on he;d get abourr "remaining productive" if he didn't get paid sh*tloads of money for his "efforts". Maybe if his non-copyright protected efforts brought in say, 30,000 or 40,000 a yr he'd understand MOST people's desire to not have to be so f'ing "productive" with no end sight

 

[Cut-Throat]

Whew, I'm glad somebody has finally taken the Bernstein Bible down a notch.   Of course, Bernstein was the only guy who could do it.   All he is saying is that the future may be different than the past, and the best way to hedge your investment returns is to keep working.    Common sense.   *****' message is very different, and much less sensical.

Well, I'm not sure this message negates anything in the 'four pillars'. As I remember it, the four pillars touted index investing over active investing. I really don't recall anything about SWRs and retirement.

In fact a guy like Berstein, being a medical doctor and writing books about investing always seemed a bit too 'type A' for retirement.

Your money or your life touted retirement and T-Bill investing. Maybe you're confusing the two.

 

[Nords]

How do we know its bernstein anyhow?

Unless someone hacked his password, it's him. He's attended Vanguard Diehard conventions and the regulars all know each other's posting names & e-mail addresses.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Okay then, lets light HIS copy of the four pillars on fire.

That'll teach him.

 

[Gone4Good]

. . . But while Bernstein may know enough to see that ***** is not quite yet ready for the primetime ER experience, I think those quotes inappropriately equate "being a productive human being" with "working for earned income".

This really hurts, considering that it's coming from the guy who taught me how to allocate my assets and beat inflation for six decades.  And considering who's teaching him so far, I'm willing to give Bernstein another chance to show that ER makes humans even more productive than work ever could.  But in the tradition started by the ancient Hawaiians, I'm also ready to burn my copy of Four Pillars at sunrise on Makapu'u Point.  Who's with me?!?

Okay.  I know I'm going to get flamed for this, and probably deserve to, but "more productive in ER?"  Really?  I guess its possible but there is no indication of that in the "What do you do all day thread" http://early-retirement.org/forums/index.php?topic=3524.msg59689#msg59689

Seems like most people's daily routines involved domestic chores, exercising, reading, and surfing the internet. Although I think most people would be envious of that lifestyle I don't think many would define it as "productive."

 

[Cut-Throat]

Seems like most people's daily routines involved domestic chores, exercising, reading, and surfing the internet. Although I think most people would be envious of that lifestyle I don't think many would define it as "productive."

I define productive as serving my interests as well as my families and friends, instead of some corporate millionaries that are piling up more money than they can spend in several lifetimes.

Productive: - Increasing Family relationships and increasing friendships. Exercising - building a healthy body instead of working causing stress, ulcers etc.

 

[haha]

I define productive as serving my interests as well as my families and friends, instead of some corporate millionaries that are piling up more money than they can spend in several lifetimes.

Productive: - Increasing Family relationships and increasing friendships. Exercising - building a healthy body instead of working causing stress, ulcers etc.

If one is going to quite the working world, it helps a lot to have this sort of attitude. You don't accept anyone else's definition of productive, or useful, or good, or anything else.

So I guess that at least theoretically, if what I like to do is watch erotic videos and drink or smoke hash all day, who is to tell me that isn't productive?

Maybe that is the main function of this board- a virtual support group for those who are marching to a different drummer.

Ha

 

[arrete]

but "more productive in ER?"  Really?

Yes really.  When I was working, I produced code and documents that people in DoDland ultimately used as door stops.

Now I rehabilitate songbirds and give platelets regularly.  I couldn't have done either while working.

I probably "wasted" 15 years producing doorstops, but it allowed me to FIRE and do something that was actually productive.

arrete

 

[sgeeeee]

I don't know what productive is. Define it as working for a profit producing company. Define it as building better relationships. I don't care. I don't owe it to anyone to meet their expectation of productivity.

 

[Jarhead*]

So I guess that at least theoretically, if what I like to do is watch erotic videos and drink or smoke hash all day, who is to tell me that isn't productive?

Ha

Ha:  I won't call you unproductive, if you will do the same for me re: my twin waste of times.
Golf & fly-fishing.

Actually, the fact that I am no longer paid for being "productive", I couldn't care less if that violates some sort of code on how to live your life.  (Ted used to have a difficult time with that concept. )

Jarhead

 

[moghopper]

who is to tell me that isn't productive?

This guy?

 

[Nords]

Okay.  I know I'm going to get flamed for this, and probably deserve to, but "more productive in ER?"  Really?  I guess its possible but there is no indication of that in the "What do you do all day thread" http://early-retirement.org/forums/index.php?topic=3524.msg59689#msg59689

Seems like most people's daily routines involved domestic chores, exercising, reading, and surfing the internet.  Although I think most people would be envious of that lifestyle I don't think many would define it as "productive."

Don't forget surfing the ocean, too!

Here's what I told Bernstein on M*'s Vanguard Diehards board:
"I'm not even 45 yet and I've been early retired for over three years. Those three years have been some of the most productive in my life-- especially for my family-- despite over two decades in the U.S. Navy's submarine force.  When I look back over my life, hopefully six or seven decades from now, I'll be proud of my service.  But I'll be even more proud of being able to devote all my time & attention to my spouse, my kid, my elders, and my community.  I don't know what I'll be doing every day for the next decade, but I'm pretty sure that it won't involve 250 days/year in an office chasing earned income."

I define "productivity" as spending time with my family, improving my house/yard/possessions, entertaining myself, staying in shape, and pursuing my interests.  By that definition I'm more productive than I ever dreamed I could be.  Some days I'm so productive that I can barely drag my butt out of the recliner to go surfing.  But if productivity was defined by earned income then I'd be even less productive than Ken Lay or Bernie Ebbers were to their employees & stockholders.

So, YTG, how do you define productivity?

Reading the rest of the board's responses, I think I'll be spending my quality productive time at Ha's house...

 

[Spanky]

The word "productive" simply means being effective in achieving specified results. Therefore, you can be productive regardless of employment status.

 

[eridanus]

When I was in my 30s I never would have imagined how much I would spend today on communications--cell phones, broad band internet, satellite TV, etc.

Wasn't this discussed in YMOYL? Our "needs" increase as technology increases. That one-speed bike now "needs" to have front and rear shocks and self-healing tires.

I have broad band only; the rest, I've found, don't work with my lifestyle. No one can predict what whiz-bang gadget comes along but then I also wouldn't have predicted that my mortgage would've dropped substantially due to lowered interest rates.

 

[laurence]

So I guess that at least theoretically, if what I like to do is watch erotic videos and drink or smoke hash all day, who is to tell me that isn't productive?

This could definitely lead to (re)productive behavior!

All I know is I'm ready to go to your next party!