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Next Shoe to Drop: Commerical Real Estate
Old 03-03-2008, 12:41 AM   #1
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Next Shoe to Drop: Commerical Real Estate

Heard on the Street - WSJ.com

After suffering a beating from their exposure to home loans, banks and securities firms are about to take their lumps from office towers, hotels and other commercial real estate. And the losses could last longer than those from the subprime shakeout.

This isn't exactly new news, but I just realized that I've lost track of how many shoes have dropped and how many more we have to go.

Already dropped:

1) Residential real-estate (in some markets)
2) Subprime
3) Alt-A
4) ABCP, CDOs, SIVs
5) Monoline insurers
6) Auction-Rate Securities and munis (in progress)

So, CRE is next I guess. Has the retail shoe already dropped? Prime mortgages haven't dropped yet, right? Stock market not so much. LBO debt still to come.

I didn't realize the economy had so many shoes. Did I miss any? Oh yeah, corporate bond defaults. CDS. Other derivatives? China? Commodities?

I hope somebody is keeping track of all these shoes.
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Old 03-03-2008, 07:43 AM   #2
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I noticed that there are many strip mall stores and restaurants closed near me (outside of Atlanta). I noticed the empty stores not too long after the housing issue arose.
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Old 03-03-2008, 07:47 AM   #3
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depends on how you define prime mortgages, since the defaults in AAA rated mortgage securities are pretty high too. but a lot of those are really subprime mortgages that have been magically blessed by the ratings agencies and wall street
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Old 03-03-2008, 07:49 AM   #4
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Must have as many as Imelda Marcos....

"After the Marcos family fled Malacaņang Palace, Imelda was found to own 15 mink coats, 508 gowns, 888 handbags and 1060 pairs of shoes"

from Wiki....
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Old 03-03-2008, 09:36 AM   #5
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Construction Spending Dives in January: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance
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