View Poll Results: Will Interest Rates Rise, Go down or Remain Unchanged Nest Week?
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Rates will rise .25%
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31 |
86.11% |
Rates will go down .25%
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0 |
0% |
Rates will remain unchanged
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5 |
13.89% |
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Next Week's FOMC Meeting - Will Rates Go Up, Down or Stay Unchanged?
12-12-2018, 12:55 PM
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#1
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Florida's First Coast
Posts: 7,654
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Next Week's FOMC Meeting - Will Rates Go Up, Down or Stay Unchanged?
Quick Speculative Poll just for fun. How accurate are we in speculating?
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"Never Argue With a Fool, Onlookers May Not Be Able To Tell the Difference." - Mark Twain
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12-12-2018, 01:18 PM
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#2
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: DC area
Posts: 2,464
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Plus a quarter, this one has been long expected. More interesting will be the tea leaves for 2019 now that unemployment is at rock bottom and inflation has reached the Fed's 2.0% PCE target.
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FI and Semi-ER March 24, 2017
Consulting to stay engaged
"All models are wrong, some are useful." - George Box
“There is always a well-known solution to every human problem: neat, plausible, and wrong.” - H.L. Mencken
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12-12-2018, 01:27 PM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 11,197
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I think if the Fed backs off, it will show capitulation to the leader. However, it could be the last one for awhile.
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TGIM
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12-12-2018, 05:09 PM
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#4
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 751
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Mr. Powell has given plenty of signals for a while now that this 0.25 point increase is a virtual certainty. i cannot see him causing confusion/doubt re his leadership of the Fed by backing off of it now. Nor do I think he should as current conditions warrant it, recent market gyrations notwithstanding. A more interesting poll would be what we think the Fed will do in 2019. I predict the economy will remain relatively good in 2019 and that there will be two more rate increases (3 at most) total for the year but none in the first qtr.
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12-12-2018, 09:58 PM
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#5
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Syracuse
Posts: 3,501
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Up 0.25
Anything else and the equity markets drop over 5% by days end.
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“No, not rich. I am a poor man with money, which is not the same thing"
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12-13-2018, 04:34 AM
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#6
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 7,515
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Up .25%. I think their statement becomes more dovish. And the dots point closer to 2 hikes next year than 3.
Hopefully they are data driven.
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12-13-2018, 10:01 AM
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#7
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: North
Posts: 4,023
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Up. Economy is strong and in the fed's eyes unrelated to the market volatility.
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Time > $$$ ~ 100% equities ~ FIRE @2031
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12-13-2018, 10:36 AM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 37,931
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I think it’s clear that the Fed has been backpedaling, and made it clear they will be paying careful attention to economic data in 2019 and probably not nearly as aggressive.
That said, I think the market expects a Dec 0.25% Fed Rate raise, and so do I.
Just to be clear - this is the Fed funds rate, not “interest rates” in general. Thise are going all over the place depending on where on the curve and which day it is.
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Retired since summer 1999.
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12-19-2018, 01:51 PM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Florida's First Coast
Posts: 7,654
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And the results are...…………………………… see Poll numbers, 83% right, everyone else wrong....
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"Never Argue With a Fool, Onlookers May Not Be Able To Tell the Difference." - Mark Twain
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12-19-2018, 02:20 PM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Laurel, MD
Posts: 8,304
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I wonder why they always raise by .25% increments. It seems like going up a bit more or less would be a reasonable way to appease the hawks and the doves.
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...with no reasonable expectation for ER, I'm just here auditing the AP class.Retired 8/1/15.
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12-19-2018, 02:22 PM
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#11
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 17,194
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jazz4cash
I wonder why they always raise by .25% increments. It seems like going up a bit more or less would be a reasonable way to appease the hawks and the doves.
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Rarely do they move up or down by more than .25%... it is a process and they want to take things slow... people adjust to the new rate and in 3 months they can adjust again...
Big moves are only for big problems...
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12-19-2018, 02:23 PM
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#12
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Eastern WV Panhandle
Posts: 25,290
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I'm guessing a rise. But that's all it is, a guess.
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When I was a kid I wanted to be older. This is not what I expected.
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12-19-2018, 02:26 PM
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#13
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jun 2018
Posts: 276
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Walt34
I'm guessing a rise. But that's all it is, a guess.
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It is much easier to make a guess after the event has happened.
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12-19-2018, 02:35 PM
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#14
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jan 2018
Posts: 229
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Walt34
I'm guessing a rise. But that's all it is, a guess.
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Man, what a guess!!!!!!!
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12-19-2018, 05:34 PM
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#15
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Laurel, MD
Posts: 8,304
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Texas Proud
Rarely do they move up or down by more than .25%... it is a process and they want to take things slow... people adjust to the new rate and in 3 months they can adjust again...
Big moves are only for big problems...
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Yes I agree but why not raise by .15% or something other than an exact .25% increment. IOW are they mandated to do it this way?
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...with no reasonable expectation for ER, I'm just here auditing the AP class.Retired 8/1/15.
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12-19-2018, 06:13 PM
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#16
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 37,931
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jazz4cash
Yes I agree but why not raise by .15% or something other than an exact .25% increment. IOW are they mandated to do it this way?
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No. It’s tradition.
Since 2000 they have moved up in 0.25% or 0.5% increments. They may have moved down in larger increments. Before 2000 they probably moved up in larger increments.
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Retired since summer 1999.
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12-20-2018, 09:00 AM
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#17
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Syracuse
Posts: 3,501
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jazz4cash
Yes I agree but why not raise by .15% or something other than an exact .25% increment. IOW are they mandated to do it this way?
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I think if at this point they did not stick to recent traditions the tea leaf readers would have whip sawed the markets. Markets like stability and consistency. I think that's even more true in the bond market.
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“No, not rich. I am a poor man with money, which is not the same thing"
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