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Niall Ferguson Interview on Deficit and Monetary Policy
Old 07-12-2010, 02:05 PM   #1
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Niall Ferguson Interview on Deficit and Monetary Policy

niall ferguson a u.s. debt crisis is on its way: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance

Warning-this may not be a good interview for people who prefer not to see "negative viewpoints".

Ha
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Old 07-12-2010, 02:45 PM   #2
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Well, at least we aren't one of the PIGS... yet. Japan isn't looking so good either.


from:
The dynamics of sovereign debt | Analysis & Opinion |
BTW, I had to look up Cyclically-Adjusted Primary Balance. Found an explanation here, which (IIRC) largely reinforced what Ferguson said:
Ed Dolan's Econ Blog: Budget Basics (2): Debt Dynamics, the Primary Deficit, and Sustainability
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Old 07-12-2010, 03:12 PM   #3
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Interesting chart. Though it will take me a while to really understand what it is saying.

Ha
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Old 07-12-2010, 04:51 PM   #4
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This guy received alot of press last week at the Aspen Ideas Festival conference.

If you do a search you'll find many links to his speech.

here is one of those links:

Professor says recession has put U.S. ‘on the edge of chaos' | PostIndependent.com

Personally I see the issues he refers to but believe that even our dumb ole' politicians will legislate change before it's as bad as he says.
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Old 07-13-2010, 09:40 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haha View Post
Warning-this may not be a good interview for people who prefer not to see "negative viewpoints".

Ha
I like your warning. I read in another thread, some people use the "ignore" option on people who are "doom and gloomers". I'd hate to see you fall into that catagory. This is a far better strategy.
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Old 07-13-2010, 10:13 AM   #6
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From the book Retirementology by Gregory Salsbury..

Quote:
...as of September 30, 2009, the national debt was almost $12 trillion, and the interest on that debt was $383 billion for the year, according to the Treasury Department's Bureau of the Public Debt. In August 2009, the White House Office of Management and Budget estimated total government revenues at about $2 trillion. The revenue estimate included $904 billion from individual income taxes. This means the cost of interest on the debt represented more than 40 cents of every dollar that came in from individual income taxes.
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Old 07-13-2010, 10:25 AM   #7
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Another quote from Retirementology by Salsbury.

Quote:
How high would a pile of money be if it contained $1 trillion dollars of $100 dollar bills? Common responses to that question might be, "30 feet!" or"The height of the Empire State Building!" or "As high as the length of three football fields!" Not even close. Would you believe 789 miles tall? That about the height of 144 Mt. Everests! That's a lot of "Benjamins", as the kids say.
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Old 07-13-2010, 10:25 AM   #8
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I don't think there are many on this board who are not concerned about the issues raised by perma-bears. But the idea that we're doomed, that we cannot make adjustments, that we have no clue, does not account for any other possibility...
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Old 07-13-2010, 11:50 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HFWR View Post
I don't think there are many on this board who are not concerned about the issues raised by perma-bears. But the idea that we're doomed, that we cannot make adjustments, that we have no clue, does not account for any other possibility...
Very well said!

And most of this is out of our individual control anyway. What is the point of going through life feeling doomed? Best to make hay while the sun shines, and for me, as long as I am healthy, and I have money in the bank, the sun is shining.

Carpe Diem!

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Old 07-13-2010, 11:53 AM   #10
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Many of the recent warnings have not come form perm-bears, but from academics or other distinguished people who are responding to what they see in the current environment.

And I don't think that we should be too sure that there are not points of no return, at least in the sense that the changes that would have to be made to reverse course may entail political cataclysm.

To me this remains an open question.

Ha
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Old 07-13-2010, 05:12 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haha View Post
Many of the recent warnings have not come form perm-bears, but from academics or other distinguished people who are responding to what they see in the current environment.

And I don't think that we should be too sure that there are not points of no return, at least in the sense that the changes that would have to be made to reverse course may entail political cataclysm.

To me this remains an open question.

Ha
Perhaps perma-bears wasn't the best term. But I remember being pretty doom-and-gloom back in the 70s, and figuring it wasn't worth the effort.

I was wrong...
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Old 07-13-2010, 07:48 PM   #12
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How do you spot the difference between a bear and a perma-bear? Do I become one after a certain number of years? What if I was bearish on the market as a whole, and bullish on some sectors? Are there perma-bulls? What if I feel a sense of doom but not gloom?

Sorry, I just don't get the label stuff.
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