When cycles last 16-18 years, a DMT has to be very, very patient. I don't know of anyone who would sell in 2000 and wait until 2016/2017 to get back in. On the other hand, the TA folks I know are evaluating moves in a few months or less and are usually ready to turn on a dime.
Maybe we need to change the subject to skin hygiene?
H0cu$. If he's to be believed (not always a good idea) then he went 100% cash in 1996 and has been waiting ever since for equity valuations to revert. Any day now...
No, no, no. no, no! Can't we talk about anything more comfortable like politics, religion, paying off the mortgage, defaulting on a mortage, working another year or when to take SS?
Man, you really have been logging the road time. Haven't you heard the news or seen the press releases? The national tour is stopping in your town next month!
My TA folks are mostly of that sort. But there are a fair amount who look at long signals such as 200 day moving average and others to find periods to move some of their holdings to cash.audreyh1 said:
I guess that's perceived as "long" in an environment where people expect to be able to swap stocks in microseconds.
It's a cycle of dawning awareness for every person that runs across him, although the cycle goes a lot faster when the true behavior surfaces. I remember waaaaaay back when CuteFuzzyBunny thought we were being too hard on the long-winded newbie with the humorous five-letter name.
If you could build the blog into an advertising machine that nets $10K-$30K/year of revenue, would you be more inclined to make the time and find the energy? Would that amount of income boost your ER budget over the gap? Would it be worth breaking the chronic cycle of overemployment that you might find yourself mired in for the next few years? Those are not easy questions to answer, especially if the next few years are needed to vest in an employer's pension plan.
