Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Not a market timer but!!??
Old 12-29-2015, 01:13 PM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Laguna Hills
Posts: 137
Not a market timer but!!??

I have never purposely timed the market in anticipation of major market swings. That strategy has served me well. With FIRE on the near horizon and a growing number of "experts" predicting an major and sustained correction I am questioning the wisdom. what do you all think??
__________________

__________________
longranger is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 12-29-2015, 01:19 PM   #2
Recycles dryer sheets
diehard1997's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 59
IMHO there are always "experts" predicting market movements in one way or another. Look at bond prices since 2010 when all the "experts" said they had nowhere to go but down. I keep my AA within an appropriate range and the rest of the time be just plain lazy.


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum
__________________

__________________
diehard1997 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-29-2015, 01:46 PM   #3
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
calmloki's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Independence
Posts: 5,459
After selling everything at a super low a few years ago, waiting out the run up in the market, and then buying back in early this year just in time to make bupkis - I'd say the odds of a major and sustained correction are pretty good.
__________________
calmloki is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-29-2015, 01:49 PM   #4
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Laguna Hills
Posts: 137
Yeah we can always find "an expert" or two predicting a crash or a major ally on any given day. A small majority of the prognostications I have read over the last 6 months are pretty gloomy. It was much easier to take those with a grain of salt when RE was a long ways off.
__________________
longranger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-29-2015, 02:01 PM   #5
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Sunset's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Chicago
Posts: 4,712
When working I always wanted a long and deep drop in the market so I could get everything on sale.

Now I'd prefer it to always rise a bit, but I'll keep some cash or bonds so that if there is a deep drop, I can buy groceries or re-allocate.

That's the plan.....
__________________
Sunset is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-29-2015, 02:05 PM   #6
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Senator's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Eagan, MN
Posts: 3,045
The market wil go up, down, or sideways. If you pull out, you are likely to be 33% correct.

Over the long term, the S&P will be the best investment out there. Of course, it may be different this time...
__________________
FIRE no later than 7/5/2016 at 56 (done), securing '16 401K match (done), getting '15 401K match (done), LTI Bonus (done), Perf bonus (done), maxing out 401K (done), picking up 1,000 hours to get another year of pension (done), July 1st benefits (vacation day, healthcare) (done), July 4th holiday. 0 days left. (done) OFFICIALLY RETIRED 7/5/2016!!
Senator is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-29-2015, 02:26 PM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
travelover's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 9,874
Unless the expert if filthy rich and long retired, they have no credibility, by default.


Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum
__________________
Yes, I have achieved work / life balance.
travelover is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-29-2015, 02:29 PM   #8
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Posts: 721
I think you should choose an asset allocation that makes sense for your time horizon and ignore the "experts."
__________________
panacea is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-29-2015, 02:37 PM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,074
Quote:
Originally Posted by longranger View Post
. With FIRE on the near horizon and a growing number of "experts" predicting an major and sustained correction I am questioning the wisdom. what do you all think??
I think you need to question the wisdom of the "experts". This link shows they are lousy at accurately predicting the market so what makes you think they are right this time?

Stock Market Guru Grades - CXO Advisory
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-29-2015, 03:45 PM   #10
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Laguna Hills
Posts: 137
My current AA is pretty average for someone approaching 60 at 55/45 equities to bonds. After doing well by trusting AA for the past 30 years or so one would think I would feel more secure staying this way indefinitely. Even though my numbers are reasonably well padded the thought of a major sustained downturn after the paychecks from w*rk stop coming gives me the cold sweats. Didn't understand this feeling completely until very recently even though I have heard it expressed in many other threads.
__________________
longranger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-29-2015, 03:48 PM   #11
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
easysurfer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 7,884
Now when is the low again? I want to mark my calendar in preparation?
__________________
Have you ever seen a headstone with these words
"If only I had spent more time at work" ... from "Busy Man" sung by Billy Ray Cyrus
easysurfer is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-29-2015, 04:26 PM   #12
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,048
I guess by now you've read/heard that managed funds don't beat the market 95% of the time. Aren't they run by those same experts? I just get too tired trying yo time the market.

Your thinking too much- so if you get out will a bell gong when it is time to get in? I've yet to hear one.


Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum.
__________________
rayinpenn is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-29-2015, 04:34 PM   #13
Moderator
Walt34's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Eastern WV Panhandle
Posts: 16,501
If you haven't read it, read this book.

A Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful Investing (Eleventh Edition): Burton G. Malkiel: 9780393352245: Amazon.com: Books
__________________
I heard the call to do nothing. So I answered it.
Walt34 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-29-2015, 04:36 PM   #14
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 38,829
Quote:
Originally Posted by longranger View Post
My current AA is pretty average for someone approaching 60 at 55/45 equities to bonds. After doing well by trusting AA for the past 30 years or so one would think I would feel more secure staying this way indefinitely. Even though my numbers are reasonably well padded the thought of a major sustained downturn after the paychecks from w*rk stop coming gives me the cold sweats. Didn't understand this feeling completely until very recently even though I have heard it expressed in many other threads.
Wanting to permanently change your asset allocation to something more conservative as one nears retirement, is not like market timing really. Maybe you need a more conservative AA in order to not get cold sweats when thinking of a market turndown. Some here have 50/50, and then some really chicken-hearted members like me settle on 45/55 (equities/fixed) in retirement.

A 2-5 year cash buffer can be calming during a market turndown as well, although these are not so popular right now due to relatively low interest rates.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities.

- - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-29-2015, 04:44 PM   #15
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Laguna Hills
Posts: 137
Thanks for all of the perspectives.There is so much experience and wisdom shared on this forum. I appreciate it more and more over time. Hopefully my perspectives will help others down the line as I learn and experience more.
__________________
longranger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-29-2015, 04:46 PM   #16
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 484
I don't consider myself a market timer but I also always have an exit strategy. I did move to all cash during the 2008 downturn because my 15% trigger I put in place was hit. The 10-12% pullbacks are not panic mode, they are just ways to buy some cheap stock... Its the 15+% pullback that one needs to keep an eye on and take action on in my opinion... however, you need to have gotten to the 15% pullback before one should ever really take action on it in my opinion... else its just basic pullback and stay the status quo... but that means you need to be ok with losing 15% as else your just playing a game that I don't think can be won... ie I don't expect to know the top or bottom, but I know when we are too far from the top or bottom to be comfortable.
__________________
karen1972 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-29-2015, 05:26 PM   #17
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,074
Quote:
Originally Posted by karen1972 View Post
...I know when we are too far from the top or bottom...
How? Are you willing to share the metric you use to measure this?
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-29-2015, 05:55 PM   #18
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Midpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 11,967
Quote:
Originally Posted by karen1972 View Post
I don't consider myself a market timer but I also always have an exit strategy. I did move to all cash during the 2008 downturn because my 15% trigger I put in place was hit. The 10-12% pullbacks are not panic mode, they are just ways to buy some cheap stock... Its the 15+% pullback that one needs to keep an eye on and take action on in my opinion... however, you need to have gotten to the 15% pullback before one should ever really take action on it in my opinion... else its just basic pullback and stay the status quo... but that means you need to be ok with losing 15% as else your just playing a game that I don't think can be won... ie I don't expect to know the top or bottom, but I know when we are too far from the top or bottom to be comfortable.
Great, how do you know exactly when/how to buy back in? I stayed in throughout the meltdown and just kept DCA'ing new $ in and reached new portfolio highs in a few years, but I assume you did better.

Ever back tested your IP?
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 60% equity funds / 35% bond funds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 2.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Midpack is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-29-2015, 06:08 PM   #19
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,408
1966 - 2006. Hit some pullbacks, missed more than few. Read a lot of books. Watched Mr Market a lot.

Luckily always had some in balanced index funds which after 40 yrs turned out to be the big dog on the porch.

2006 went pretty much full auto - Vanguard Target Retirement.

heh heh heh - ok ok male hormones and all - have few good stocks(less than 2%) and would like Michigan State to upset Alabama and Carolina the Pats BUT it's is just football. Right?

After 22 years of ER trying to chill a little.
__________________
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-29-2015, 07:09 PM   #20
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,396
Quote:
Originally Posted by W2R View Post
... Some here have 50/50, and then some really chicken-hearted members like me settle on 45/55 (equities/fixed) in retirement...
Does it make that much difference?

From Oct 2007 to Mar 2009, the S&P dropped more than 55% (down to 45 cents on the dollar), while BND (VG total bond index) was roughly flat. A 50/50 portfolio would be down to 72.5 cents on the dollar, while the 45/55 portfolio was 75.3 cents.
__________________

__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
I'm now a market timer?? ArkTinkerer FIRE and Money 9 10-01-2015 09:59 PM
I'm not a market timer, but... jjquantz FIRE and Money 56 07-21-2015 09:16 PM
Hussman Funds- Dirty Market Timer Lives wallygator69 FIRE and Money 10 07-11-2012 10:27 AM
Dirty Market Timer Me? 401k growing_older FIRE and Money 10 01-19-2009 07:07 PM
Another first-timer bermy Hi, I am... 2 09-02-2002 04:19 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 10:41 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.