NYT- Fringe Suburbs Dying

I was told something similar when our kids were newborn and it proved true. The quality of schools and education suddenly becomes the only thing that really matters, and long commutes and other personal sacrifice no longer matter so much. I see the same attitude with my grandchildren.

It isn't clear that one suburb has better education over another, it also isn't easy to identify a school system that is clearly "superior", but it sure is easy to find the school systems that are failing, and they are mostly large and big city.

Ding, dng, ding, we have a winner!

I feel fortunate I was able to find an amenable inner suburb with top notch schools, good acces to the rail system and relatively modest prices. But I would be a road warrior on a daily basis if that is what it took.
 
Im about in the same type of location as you and most people make an 80-100 mile daily round trip drive for a decent job. Just my personal experiences, but even if gas doubled it wont change these small bedroom towns of 5k to 30 k, people would just cram into a smaller car or share rides. Many people like their small piece of grass to mow, and living away from the negatives that cities have.

That pits one car-one person v. exurb living. It's a toss up as to which will win but I wouldn't bet on the exurb. It'll have too much going against it when gas starts to rise.
 
It is all relative. Sure some kids head for the burbs when school looms, others don't (me, my son) lots of my neighbors. Some people like the open space of far suburbs enough that they will tolerate a major commute, others won't. Some can't afford to choose. I think the phenomenon Ha mentioned simply reflects a shift in preferences -- more people, young and old are finding inner cities and core suburbs the more attractive alternative than did in the past. It isn't like the far suburbs will evaporate as a result. But housing prices may rise slower than they would have without the shift and prices in close will benefit from the shift.
 
I watched this happen in a particular newly developed suburban area about 40 miles outside Seatttle that is within walking distance of the rural area where I grew up. I was tracking prices housing prices there with an eye to possibly buying a place at some point in case we moved back, as the rural property near my mom and sister was not likely to be in our price range (made up mostly of expensive waterfront houses or large houses on substantial acreage). I watched the prices of the lower end townhouses/condos go from high 100s/low 200s in 2003 (when we sold our NY coop and had some cash to consider investing) up to 300-400k at the peak in 2006-07 ish (when I resigned from my job and was in transition -- so glad I didn't decide to move back then!). The current cheapest listing in the development is a 3 bdr townhouse listed as a short sale for 115k. It has been listed on Redfin for almost 900 days. The original listing in 2009 was for 255k. Listing describes it as having a "major water leak and major fixer" -- guess that happens when you leave a place vacant for nearly 3 years. May have been construction issues as well -- at least one of the builders in this development had major construction quality issues that were the subject of a class action suit at one point. Anyway, in this fairly remote suburb it is clear that prices have tanked, and are not likely to recover any time soon.

Situation in downtown Issaquah, not too far away, is very different. Prices in the downtown core, which is very walkable and has good public transit, have stayed fairly strong (though down a bit from the crazy peaks they hit in 06-07. That was another area I have had an eye on. I have this kind of crazy semi-ER dream of moving back there (still close to family) and getting some kind of job at the King County Library System headquarters that I could walk to. My first real job was as a KCLS page, and I wouldn't mind finishing up my working life with a semi-ER job as a library assistant or something. The Issaquah library is beautiful.
 
More and more jobs will move to teleworking from home. Transportation will become more expensive. Cars, trains, buses, parking, all of it. Jobs will move to people before core cities go through massive expansion. Every company looking to grow, look at where the workforce is located and where the skills they need have an ability to grow. Small college towns that teach the new workforce skills will have the greatest potential for growth. People want space and will make the necessary compromises to get it.
 
I am surprised that there are not more places like Houston where there are many 'work zones'....

Sure, there is a big downtown area where a lot of people work.. but, we have a big medical center with lots of employment, there is also the Galleria area, the Energy Corridor, the refining area (Pasadena), Sugarland, the Woodlands, etc. etc....

Most people who work downtown can live almost anywhere and get there on a bus using bus lanes most of the way.... but if you work somewhere else you usually live closer to your work...

IMO I see the big city with big buildings declining as the cost to business is a lot more than moving out to the burbs themselves...
 
People want space and will make the necessary compromises to get it.
You're probably right based on what one sees on HGTV shows. I know that I'd rather have something as compact as possible to hold down property taxes, utility costs and initial home cost - I'm hooked on LBYM. :cool:
 
A recent DOD study concluded we are at or near peak oil. We won't run out anytime soon but prices will rise. The outer suburbs would be toast even at 6$ gas let alone European prices of 8-10$. It would also have a profound effect on agriculture with much more expensive inputs and transportation costs. Rural Ag towns and city cores might fair better.
 
I am surprised that there are not more places like Houston where there are many 'work zones'....

Sure, there is a big downtown area where a lot of people work.. but, we have a big medical center with lots of employment, there is also the Galleria area, the Energy Corridor, the refining area (Pasadena), Sugarland, the Woodlands, etc. etc....

Most people who work downtown can live almost anywhere and get there on a bus using bus lanes most of the way.... but if you work somewhere else you usually live closer to your work...

IMO I see the big city with big buildings declining as the cost to business is a lot more than moving out to the burbs themselves...
That's exactly how Joel Kotkin thinks this will play out in the decades ahead. Mega-regions with lots of self contained 'neighborhoods/town centers/amenities' all within close proximity. Seems more likely than everyone moving back into downtown areas of major cities (too expensive already). We will see...
 
I guess I am one of those 20- or 30-somethings who moved into a lower cost close in neighborhood in spite of its blemishes. We settled down and had kids and stayed put. our kids go to the school in our neighborhood (under 10 minutes walking distance). The school has its challenges, because of a huge proportion of limited English proficiency students and low income students. It is one of the worst performing schools on standardized tests, however tons of money have recently started flowing into the school to revitalize it, and I think we are on the leading edge of that revitalization right now. We have the option in our school district to send our kid to any number of schools near us or out in the fancy rich suburb 20 minutes away, so bad schools is not of first order importance to us. It is of second order importance, because we fear others will look at the neighborhood school as very bad and it will accordingly pull down property values and let the riff raff buy in the neighborhood. ( ;) )

Since we have access to good schools for our kids, we are happy living here. My job moved from a suburb location to a downtown location, and that means my commute dropped from 10-15 minutes to 6-10 minutes. And I can take a city bus (paid for by employer) from the end of my street to work and it is about the exact same time as driving downtown after walking from my parking spot downtown.

Access to freeway in under a mile, four regional shopping centers within 5-15 minutes and tons of other strip malls, big boxes, regular or ethnic groceries and restaurants, etc a short walk or short drive away. Plenty of parks and greenways in the neighborhood within walking distance or a short drive. And we live on a small lake which brings tons of wildlife right to our doorstep (sometimes figuratively, sometimes literally as the possum hanging out on the deck last night proves!).

The neighborhood itself is cool because of the mix of people. Retired people who bought into the neighborhood 50 years ago when it was being developed (though they are dying out), working class, immigrants, white collar, early retirees, multimillionaires, etc. The whole gamut.

And can't beat the affordability. Fixer uppers for around $100k, nicely maintained homes for $130-160k. Closer in neighborhoods (a couple miles closer) are 200-400% more expensive and have older housing stock (with the problems that come with it). And further out suburban neighborhoods are typically more expensive, although the houses are much nicer and newer. Just hope you like driving 30 minutes to everything! :)

Needless to say I am very happy with where I live, warts and all. Some 20- and 30-something friends think like me, yet others still have that suburban mcmansion dream in their minds.

Edit to add: About the perceived or real downsides of living in a gentrifying or inner city area - Crime. Looking at crime stats for where I live, the homicide rate is around 3 per 100,000 population each year. Maybe living in a rougher area doubles that risk to 6 per 100,000. However the great majority of murders are committed by people known to the victim, so living in a rough area may not be the causative factor increasing the homicide rate (ie rough people living in palaces would still kill each other frequently).

In contrast, the motor vehicle fatality rate is around 8 per 100,000 people if you drive 7000 miles a year, but 24 deaths per 100,000 people if you drive 21,000 miles a year. Driving more increases your fatality rate, driving less decreases your fatality rate. Would I trade my short commute for a longer commute from the "safer" suburbs (thereby increasing the combined fatality risk from 14 deaths per 100,000 in the inner city neighborhood to 27 per 100,000 in the fringe suburb). Is living in the fringe suburbs really twice as deadly as living in a gentrifying area? Probably.
 
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...and let the riff raff buy in the neighborhood. ( ;) )


I guess I am one of those 20- or 30-somethings who moved into a lower cost close in neighborhood in spite of its blemishes.
Too late... :p

DFW in general is a [-]sprawling nightmare[/-] car-centric area, though there are pockets where one could conceivably walk/bike for errands, at least Oct-May... We do have a growing light-rail system, and toll roads, and "urban centers" spread to and fro. My neighborhood is in a relatively affluent 'burb, and I'm close to the light rail system, but walking would get you to a drugstore, or a quicky mart, within 10-20 minutes, but not much else...

Housing crash notwithstanding, I'm hoping that being relatively close in, near light rail, and in an affluent suburb with notable schools, will at least keep the value of my house steady, if not appreciating, if/when gas prices head north again.
 
In contrast, the motor vehicle fatality rate is around 8 per 100,000 people if you drive 7000 miles a year, but 24 deaths per 100,000 people if you drive 21,000 miles a year. Driving more increases your fatality rate, driving less decreases your fatality rate.
True on average, but not all driving or all roads are created equally. Freeways, particularly those built to Interstate standards, are considerably safer than most surface streets with signals, cross-traffic and pedestrians despite their higher speeds. And most longer drives do occur on the highways where the accident (and fatality) rates are lower. Not many 20-30 mile drives are mostly on city streets, and not many 1-2 mile drives are on the Interstate.
 
True on average, but not all driving or all roads are created equally. Freeways, particularly those built to Interstate standards, are considerably safer than most surface streets with signals, cross-traffic and pedestrians despite their higher speeds. And most longer drives do occur on the highways where the accident (and fatality) rates are lower. Not many 20-30 mile drives are mostly on city streets, and not many 1-2 mile drives are on the Interstate.

True, interstates have crash rates and fatality rates around half of non-limited access surface streets in general. However crash rates go up during rush hour, when most of us commute to work. And the most deadly roads (measured in fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled) are suburban and rural secondary roads. Guess which roads you have to take to get from the interstate to your fringe suburb neighborhoods? :D

We could get into a very detailed analysis of exact breakdown of vehicle miles traveled by city vs fringe suburb residents at different times of day and come up with some comparison of fatality rates. But I think my point holds that the risk of dying in a car crash due to having to drive a long way outweighs the risk of death due to crime that comes from living in a gentrifying neighborhood. I want to maximize my safety to the extent possible, and the stats, to me at least, says minimizing driving will keep you alive better than worrying about crime (assuming you don't live in the middle of a gang warfare shooting range drive by zone).
 
I think the flight to suburbs may slow down but I don't see it reversing based on personal experience and observed behaviour.
I've lived in both Europe and Japan, which are held up as the poster childs of urban living. My native co-workers would have lived in an American style suburb if they had the opportunity. However, in both areas, government led initiatives severely limited the amount of housing that was available in ring suburbs.
When it was possible to move to a suburb, the typical Japanese or English worker was willing to commute 1 hour each way by car from a suburban home. This was when transportation was at least double its current cost in the U.S., public transportation was much better than here, and average salaries were much lower.

Lorne
 
As I recall from the book "$20 Per Gallon," which someone on this forum recommended, the real death of the burbs will be $10/gallon. When monthly gas for 2 vehicles starts to equal the mortgage, priorities will be re-aligned.

"Edge cities" will start to emerge, certainly, but some exurbs will just...die. It'll make great exploring for some kids.
 
The county I live would be classified by most of you as rural. We're about 45/hr outside DC. However, we're constantly ranked one of the wealthiest per capita counties in the country.

I pop in and out of DC, but don't work there. When I dropped my daughter off at a friends house in McLean I realized, this congestion and traffic make me itch for our country lifestyle. Many people may think they live in a hugely convenient place, but if it takes you 15 minutes to get to your grocery store in the traffic and 15 for me driving 12 miles, is it really any more convenient?

I realize I'd never live in a really densely populated area. At least around here I prefer to visit and go back to where I have a little elbow room.
 
Perhaps this is good news for retirees. We are not tied to a work location and can take advantage of depressed fringe markets.

The $20 gas book was good, but so far has overestimated the speed at which gas prices have increased. My guess is that we are just experiencing a temporary pause in the price rise.

His prediction of big airlines going bankrupt is interesting related to today's news.
 
Many people may think they live in a hugely convenient place, but if it takes you 15 minutes to get to your grocery store in the traffic and 15 for me driving 12 miles, is it really any more convenient?
Likely not, but this is a cherry-picked example. I haven't driven to the grocery store more than 5 times in the five years that I have lived where I live. And when I walk to get gorceries it is less than 5-10 minutes depending on whichn store I walk to. I have an AMazon lockbax within 3 blocks.

I get into my car for social reasons, or if I want to go to Lowes or somesuch. These are easily reached from where I live. But I did choose my location based on walking, or bus/train, and good arterials/freeway access.

I believe it is a matter of taste. I enjoy the frequent low key social interactions. Also, if you walk on most errands, you get a lot of exercise that does not feel like "exercising".

I think my preference is influenced by observing my Dad as he got older in his quality urban neighborhood. He was farther from the center of his city than I am-2.5 miles rather than my 1 mile. But within an old man's easy walking distance he had doctors, dentists, hospitals, a large university with its film society and music, groceries and meat market, library branch, etc. Downtown was a very short bus ride away, and he liked downtown as he had worked there for > 40 years and still had some haunts and many memories.

Ha
 
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It's a reminder of how subsidized suburban living really was with cheap gas and flush budgets for road construction and maintenance. That train has left the station.
The gas was market priced, no one or thing subsidized it. The official name of the interstate system, the "Dwight D. Eisenhower National System of Interstate and Defense Highways" clearly shows it was all about allowing suburbs to be built.
 
Around here the highly-touted suburbs are very much into the McMansion lifestyle of mid-brow ostentation, new cars, constant shopping and eating at "upscale" chain restaurants. It's not keeping up with the Jones, it's beating the Jones.

Outside the 635 / LBJ loop of Dallas there is a lot of traffic and people depend on expensive toll roads. There is rail extending to some of the burbs but it's located in sections that most of the McMansion types would turn up their noses at. Besides they would rather drive and show off their vehicles.

I really don't see this as sustainable.
 
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Many people may think they live in a hugely convenient place, but if it takes you 15 minutes to get to your grocery store in the traffic and 15 for me driving 12 miles, is it really any more convenient?

FIFTEEN MINUTES!?!?!?! It only takes me 5 minutes to walk to my convenient urban village grocery store. I didn't realize that it would me three times as long if I lived in the boonies.
 
We live in an urban area that's walking distance to most of our needs. Good commute for LA standard as well. We love this area. However, we do have 2 small kids and would likely move to the suburbs when they're school age. That's pretty much the only reason. If they had good schools here, we won't move.

When I talk to my friends/co-workers, they prefer suburb life b/c it's quieter, more space, safer even though their commute is twice as mine. It's a personal choice but I think I'm in the minority when I talk to them.
 
I pop in and out of DC, but don't work there. When I dropped my daughter off at a friends house in McLean I realized, this congestion and traffic make me itch for our country lifestyle. Many people may think they live in a hugely convenient place, but if it takes you 15 minutes to get to your grocery store in the traffic and 15 for me driving 12 miles, is it really any more convenient.

I see your point. I would hate it if it took 15 minutes to get to a grocery store while stuck in traffic. However that experience doesn't seem to jive with what I experience living in the city (not DC admittedly - thank goodness!). Our grocery store, when we drive to it, is about 1.5 minutes away driving, and more than half that time is spent in my driveway or driving through the parking lot. Walking takes a little longer, probably 7 minutes.

Within a 5-10 minute drive, we have a couple dozen grocery stores, and discount grocery stores, big box grocery stores (super walmart and super target), membership clubs (sams, BJ, and costco), high end grocery stores (trader joes, whole foods and the like), and dozens of ethnic (latin, asian, indian, african, middle eastern) grocery stores.

Needless to say, ample choice and variety from the low end to the high end. I would hate to have to drive 15 minutes to get to the nearest grocery store and have that be the de facto choice for groceries. Different strokes... :D
 
However that experience doesn't seem to jive with what I experience living in the city (not DC admittedly - thank goodness!).
Uh, Fuego, I suspect you speak from ignorance :). I have lived in DC in a Capitol Hill row house for almost 30 years. I love it and plan to spend my ER years right here.
 
Uh, Fuego, I suspect you speak from ignorance :). I have lived in DC in a Capitol Hill row house for almost 30 years. I love it and plan to spend my ER years right here.

I am sure it is from ignorance! I have only driven around downtown DC a few times, and once I was in downtown around the Capitol, it wasn't bad at all. Maybe the hours of sitting on I-95 very close to DC is was left me permanently scarred! ;)
 
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