Guess I don't see it as a bottom falling out. Pretty minor correction to me.
Consider, as of 12/31/06, Vanguard's Energy Fund Investor (VGENX):
YTD Returns 1 Year 5 Year 10 Year Since Inception Inception Date 19.66%19.66%25.75%16.53%14.77%05/23/1984 (Today's close, it is down 5.82% vs. 12/31/06.)
And, regarding gold, Vanguard's Precious Metals and Mining Fund (VGPMX):
YTD Returns1 Year5 Year10 YearSince InceptionInception Date34.30%34.30%34.72%13.92%8.55%05/23/1984 (Down 2.30% on today's close, vs. 12/31/06.)
2007 has a long ways to go.
I never understand the aggravation with commodities ... seems like a perfectly respectable asset class. Hell, the S&P 500 is 8.34% over the last 10 years, 12.23% since inception (1976). They go up, they go down ... growing world economy, ain't making any more of the stuff, weakening dollar. Some investors cry all the way to the bank with these funds ...
Wouldn't put 25% of my portfolio here, but ...
Tech Stocks - I can make a pretty good estimate as to what the present value of Microsoft's future cash flow stream is worth.
Really. What do you get for Google? Amazon?
Love the tulip reference. Now, if we can set up tulip mutual fund that performs like VGPMX or VGENX ... we've got a winner! Then, a South Sea REIT!