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Old 10-10-2008, 03:14 PM   #41
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The guy Jeff on SSI that I mentioned on another thread said that the economy has been bad for a long time, but nothing ever gets done until the rich feel it. Now the rich are feeling it. He is happy that gas prices are going down.

Interesting POV.
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Old 10-10-2008, 03:35 PM   #42
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Just went out to run an errand and can report a $2.99 sighting here in town.
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Old 10-10-2008, 04:33 PM   #43
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Bought gas today: $2.799/gal (that's with the Kroger card .15/gal discount).
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Old 10-10-2008, 11:35 PM   #44
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Wow, those are really low gas prices! It's been dropping rapidly here too but it's still above $3 (3.04 at last look this evening) and we're usually at or close to the cheapest region for gas (MO). I guess it's moving so quickly that lots of things are out of whack.
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Old 10-11-2008, 12:28 AM   #45
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If we have a permanent recession, I suppose so- but isn't a long resession what Bernanke has spent his life learning how to avoid? And at $75, there are many profitable oil and gas and service investments.

Ha
Maybe he shouldn't have spent so much time studying economic policies that failed and a bit more time studying policies that were successful?

I have confidence that Bernanke will do everything in his power to ruin the economy but will get a pass because of his good intentions. How long until the interest rate is cut to less than one percent?

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Old 10-11-2008, 01:11 AM   #46
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Leave for work Wednesday: $3.29 a gallon. Come home: $3.19. Leave for work Thursday: $3.09. Come home: $2.99. Leave for work Friday: $2.69

Forget dropping like a rock... a rock won't drop faster once it reaches terminal velocity.
That can't all be for the same gas station. You're saying the price fell 4 times in 48hrs? I thought they could only change the price once in a 24 hour period. Maybe that's only Wisconsin but I thought it was a national law.
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Old 10-11-2008, 11:50 PM   #47
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That can't all be for the same gas station. You're saying the price fell 4 times in 48hrs? I thought they could only change the price once in a 24 hour period. Maybe that's only Wisconsin but I thought it was a national law.
I witnessed the same thing here in small town MO on Thurs/Fri. It fell from 3.24 early Thurs afternoon to 3.19 at about 5 pm, and then down to 3.14 two hrs later. On Fri at 5 pm is was 3.10 and then 3.04 later that night at 10 pm. I don't know if it fell again today!
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Old 10-12-2008, 08:37 AM   #48
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Maybe he shouldn't have spent so much time studying economic policies that failed and a bit more time studying policies that were successful?

I have confidence that Bernanke will do everything in his power to ruin the economy but will get a pass because of his good intentions. How long until the interest rate is cut to less than one percent?


Well old Jimmy Rodgers wasn't very cheerful. He says we are better off just letting everything collapse and have a global depression. Then we can have a bottom and start from there. A little early for my medication.
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Old 10-12-2008, 02:50 PM   #49
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Another interesting thing which I can't really interpret is that the stand alone refiners are getting killed in the market. If they are making a lot on money, it seems that the market can't see it yet.

Ha
Gas Price Historical Price Charts - GasBuddy.com



I tried to put the chart in my reply but could not get it to work. Gas and oil historically chart along right next to each other. In August of 07, due to various shenanigans, oil took off and gasoline did not. There was never any sound reason for oil to be over $100 per barrel. The crack spreads have been in the toilet ever since. Hence the low stock prices on stand alone refiners. The gas prices will fall slower than oil because it went up slower and never caught up. Most refinery stocks are at about 1/3 to 1/2 price from 2007. Shenanigans put them there and hysteria is keeping them there. They are cheaper than they have been in a very long time. They are a screaming buy right now. People are not going to quit driving and no new refineries are being built.
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Old 10-16-2008, 11:12 AM   #50
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inventories came out today and oil is dipping below $70
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Old 10-16-2008, 11:30 AM   #51
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Well old Jimmy Rodgers wasn't very cheerful. He says we are better off just letting everything collapse and have a global depression. Then we can have a bottom and start from there.
Easy for a billionaire to say. No matter how hard it collapsed, he'd be fine.
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Old 10-16-2008, 02:10 PM   #52
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him and pickens are probably losing a ton of money on their commodity trades
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Old 10-16-2008, 05:40 PM   #53
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him and pickens are probably losing a ton of money on their commodity trades
I've been crying for them all day. Unfortunately, my w*rking fate is tied to the economy and the price of oil. I can see my retirement coming over the hill as I type.
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Old 10-16-2008, 09:42 PM   #54
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ICE Exchange

Brent crude today on the ICE exchange for November 08, $66.31 per barrel.

boont
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Old 10-16-2008, 09:49 PM   #55
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signed up for a trading newsletter today to get some tips from people who have more time to devote to this. I've been following this guy for over a year and reading his free stuff that is a summary of the paid but with a lag. he's very good at predicting 90% or so of pretty much every market move including today's rally before it happens.

he's saying we'll get a rally to around $110 soon then another crash to $50 at the lowest and then another rally past $150 sometime next year
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Old 10-16-2008, 10:26 PM   #56
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he's saying we'll get a rally to around $110 soon then another crash to $50 at the lowest and then another rally past $150 sometime next year
I got out of my shorts at the low 90's and haven't been paying much attention to it for the last week or so. I really believed that oil was going to unwind but I have to admit that the speed and depth were much more than I thought possible. $90-ish seemed like good bottom, and it tried to hold there for a while but it dropped past that and has been taking the elevator down since then. Perhaps it overshot a little with a stronger dollar and general panic in the markets - I don't know at the moment.

Rally to $110? That's doable, I think, but I'm not sure about soon. Down to $50? I think we're more likely to see that before we see $110 again. OPECC will try and hold the line with some production cuts, but I'm not sure if there will be a consensus or how successful they will be. And then up to $150 by next year? That's interesting. Again, it's possible, but the timeline sure seems short. But things seem to be moving at light speed recently so I won't say it's not going to happen.
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signed up for a trading newsletter today to get some tips from people who have more time to devote to this. I've been following this guy for over a year and reading his free stuff that is a summary of the paid but with a lag. he's very good at predicting 90% or so of pretty much every market move including today's rally before it happens.
I would love to look at the free stuff if it's on line. Do you have a link?
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Old 10-17-2008, 08:04 AM   #57
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when i looked at the USO and oil charts i thought $150 in July was the peak with a rally to $90 - $110 and then a bottom at $60. that would set up a nice head and shoulders and then a drop.

they way he is saying it we'll get a fast rally from $50 to $150 that will set up a double top and the bottom could be as low as $50 over the next few years

with all the cars going hybrid over the next 10 years, very bad for oil
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Old 10-17-2008, 05:43 PM   #58
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with all the cars going hybrid over the next 10 years, very bad for oil
With oil dropping, very bad for hybrids.
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Old 10-17-2008, 05:51 PM   #59
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with all the cars going hybrid over the next 10 years, very bad for oil
There is a need for hybrids, but I don't see everyone going that route anytime soon. For one, they cost more than many are willing to pay. Maybe in time that will get worked out.
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Old 10-17-2008, 05:54 PM   #60
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With oil dropping, very bad for hybrids.
and also all the alternative energy stuff... We are caught in a vicious cycle. Rebirth of the big/bad/mean 10-cyl SUV?

I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more rounds of up/down before I die. I will get back into Canadian tar sand companies again. Just don't know when yet.
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