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10-02-2008, 10:32 AM
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#1
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,003
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Oil price decline
Remember a few short months ago when $200 oil was just around the corner?
"( MarketWatch) -- Merrill Lynch cut its 2009 oil price forecast to $90 a barrel from $107 a barrel and warned that a "synchronous global recession" could bring oil prices to $50 a barrel. It said U.S. oil demand is far outpacing its decline expectations, European demand is falling rapidly, and some of the emerging markets aren't keeping up either. Plus, a string of fields in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and others will bring about 3 million barrels of oil a day in incremental capacity over the next 12 months."
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Numbers is hard
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10-02-2008, 10:47 AM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo
Remember a few short months ago when $200 oil was just around the corner?
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You're welcome.
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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10-02-2008, 11:33 AM
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#3
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 2,594
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Can't wait for other fuels to follow ... been looking at cordwood: $330 - 380/cord. Up 50% from last year; at that rate gas/oil may be cheaper (to heat the house)!
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FIRE'd since 2005
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10-02-2008, 11:37 AM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,003
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
You're welcome.
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If it hits $50 I'll be able to afford the gas to drive up and buy you a beer.
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Numbers is hard
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10-02-2008, 11:43 AM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Assuming you don't have to withdraw from your IRA to buy it, anyway.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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10-02-2008, 12:15 PM
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#6
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
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Fight the good fight Ziggy.
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10-02-2008, 12:15 PM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,067
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I heard Donald Trump say just the other day that oil prices will drop like a rock, in the $20 range. Boone Pickens just yesterday said OPEC will cut supply enough to hold oil close to $100. But who knows? Pickens has been wrong before. The below from bloggingstocks.com
Posted Sep 24th 2008 9:45AM by Douglas McIntyre
Filed under: Forecasts, Commodities, Oil
The large hedge fund run by Texas energy king T. Boone Pickens has lost $1 billion this year. He bet that oil would go up. Instead, it went down. That makes his push for wind power and the use of natural gas to run cars look a little silly.
According to The Wall Street Journal," the downturn in energy has blindsided the industry veteran, leaving one of his hedge funds that focuses on energy stocks down almost 30% through August." Pickens says that oil will move back up unless the global economy goes into a very deep recession.
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Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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10-02-2008, 12:16 PM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Chicago
Posts: 13,151
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If oil drops to $50, will the then current administration insist on sending foreign aid to the supplying countries so they don't suffer from our selfish reductions in consumption?
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"I wasn't born blue blood. I was born blue-collar." John Wort Hannam
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10-02-2008, 12:18 PM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg52
I heard Donald Trump say just the other day that oil prices will drop like a rock, in the $20 range.
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Seems hard to believe, but he was right about Rosie O'Donnell, so maybe he'll be right about this one, too -- at least as a temporary recessionary oversold landing point. No way it settles there long term, though.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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10-02-2008, 12:19 PM
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#10
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
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Quote:
Originally Posted by youbet
If oil drops to $50, will the then current administration insist on sending foreign aid to the supplying countries so they don't suffer from our selfish reductions in consumption?
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Wont drop to 50 by the next administration.
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10-02-2008, 12:23 PM
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#11
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Chicago
Posts: 13,151
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Notmuchlonger
Wont drop to 50 by the next administration.
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I think I said the "then current" (as in whoever is in charge at the time it hits $50) administration.
Looking...looking...looking... Yep, that's what I said!
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"I wasn't born blue blood. I was born blue-collar." John Wort Hannam
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10-02-2008, 12:27 PM
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#12
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
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Its ok. Im dumber than normal today.
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10-02-2008, 12:53 PM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Collin County, TX
Posts: 9,294
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__________________
There's no need to complicate, our time is short..
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10-02-2008, 12:59 PM
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#14
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
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Quote:
Dont smear your lipstick...
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10-02-2008, 04:52 PM
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#15
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,708
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I guess the good news is that you'll be able to buy those high gas mileage econoboxes and hybrids for pretty cheap money in a little while.
or you'll have plenty of cheap gas to put in the giant SUV or hummer you can buy right now for next to nothing.
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Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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10-02-2008, 05:26 PM
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#16
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 1,645
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Them sonsof... It was a conspiracy to get me to lock in my heating oil at high prices. $4.75 a gallon!
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10-02-2008, 07:00 PM
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#17
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg52
I heard Donald Trump say just the other day that oil prices will drop like a rock, in the $20 range. Boone Pickens just yesterday said OPEC will cut supply enough to hold oil close to $100. But who knows? Pickens has been wrong before.
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He sure has, but my money is on him. Recession will always knock down commodities. You can wait until one comes to buy, and maybe miss the whole bull market, or just realize that there will perhaps be some pain along the way.
But is there any chance that in a modern economy like the US that a barrell of oil will be worth much less than say, $75, for long? If we have a permanent recession, I suppose so- but isn't a long resession what Bernanke has spent his life learning how to avoid? And at $75, there are many profitable oil and gas and service investments.
I give very little credence to stories of large increases in production. What is going on is recession induced demand destruction, along with unwinding of over-extended long positions by hedge funds.
Demand won't stay down for long, unless the Chinese and Indian decide that they don't want 1st world economies after all.
It's one big head fake, albeit one that might go on for a while. Interesting aside is that in all this mess, I have only a few unaffected stocks. Some tobacco, some pharma and blue chip consumer products- and the pipeline that hauls most of the crude from western Canadian tar sands projects. It sits like a rock.
Ha
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"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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10-02-2008, 07:32 PM
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#18
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 12,894
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haha
He sure has, but my money is on him. Recession will always knock down commodities. You can wait until one comes to buy, and maybe miss the whole bull market, or just realize that there will perhaps be some pain along the way.
But is there any chance that in a modern economy like the US that a barrell of oil will be worth much less than say, $75, for long? If we have a permanent recession, I suppose so- but isn't a long resession what Bernake has spent his life learning how to avoid? And at $75, there are many profitable oil and gas and service investments.
I give very little credence to stories of large increases in production. What is going on is recession induced demand destruction, along with unwinding of over-extended long positions by hedge funds.
Demand won't stay down for long, unless the Chinese and Indian decide that they don't want 1st world economies after all.
It's one big head fake, albeit one that might go on for a while. Interesting aside is that in all this mess, I have only a few unaffected stocks. Some tobacco, some pharma and blue chip consumer products- and the pipeline that hauls most of the crude from western Canadian tar sands projects. It sits like a rock.
Ha
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I agree. I had been looking for an entry point into PCRDX (Pimco commodity) for a year now and it is getting cheap enough for me to consider pouncing on it...
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10-02-2008, 07:39 PM
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#19
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2008
Location: No fixed abode
Posts: 8,764
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I find it interesting that oil is down about 35%, but gas prices are only down 12-15%. It sure goes up in lockstep, but I guess there's no relationship on the way down.
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"Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgement." - Anonymous (not Will Rogers or Sam Clemens)
DW and I - FIREd at 50 (7/06), living off assets
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10-02-2008, 07:43 PM
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#20
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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Another interesting thing which I can't really interpret is that the stand alone refiners are getting killed in the market. If they are making a lot on money, it seems that the market can't see it yet.
Ha
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"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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