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Old 08-26-2010, 09:43 PM   #1
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OK- OK- Question for the Market Timers/AA

How low will it go? and whats the time frame for this demolition.

When it turns back upwards how high will it rise.

Dow and S&P
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Old 08-26-2010, 09:48 PM   #2
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How low will it go? and whats the time frame for this demolition.

When it turns back upwards how high will it rise.

Dow and S&P
I'm not up for even guessing--I'm just totally demoralized. Hindenburg Omens, death crosses, head and shoulder patterns, none of this stuff is supposed to be meaningful, buy somehow I think the pessimists will again be right. I will then get to hear "how could you not have seen this coming" from family and friends yet again. Very depressing.
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Old 08-26-2010, 09:51 PM   #3
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I'm not up for even guessing--I'm just totally demoralized. Hindenburg Omens, death crosses, head and shoulder patterns, none of this stuff is supposed to be meaningful, buy somehow I think the pessimists will again be right. I will then get to hear "how could you not have seen this coming" from family and friends yet again. Very depressing.

Sounds like 8250 on the DOW
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Old 08-26-2010, 10:40 PM   #4
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After the last down turn you should be used to this. The market goes up and the market goes down. How in the world would anyone know what it's going to do.
Relax and turn off the TV.
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Old 08-27-2010, 01:08 AM   #5
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How abou450.
S&P 500 to hit 450, SocGen strategist warns - MarketWatch

Or this
Hi Carl,
I really enjoy your service and have for about nine years. Thank you for all your hard work and dedication. I was wondering if you could tell me the potential technical "bottom" numbers for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq?
Thank you very much.

ANSWER: I don't follow the Nasdaq. I have rough targets of Dow 3000 and SPX 300 around late-2010. I wouldn't exactly call these "technical" targets -- I am guestimating a total decline of about 80%, using the 1929-1932 bear market 90% decline as a guide. The timing is based on the estimate for the next 4-Year Cycle low, which is due mid-to-late 2010.
While I can't swear by these estimates, I don't think I'm sticking my neck out too far.
Carl
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Decision Point®: Chart Spotlight 2/27/2009


I can not fall asleep tonight.
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Old 08-27-2010, 03:55 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by Florida View Post
How low will it go? and whats the time frame for this demolition.

When it turns back upwards how high will it rise.

Dow and S&P

I believe we are in trading range between Dow 9800 and Dow 11,000. I don't see us going +/- 10% out of this range for the next two years.

Oh BTW, I am pretty crappy at forecasting, but I am acting on my beliefs.
(i.e. selling calls, selling stocks, and selling short when the Dow got above 10,500 and writing (selling) puts, buying stocks as the market has tested 10,000. _
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Old 08-27-2010, 04:50 AM   #7
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Magic 8-Ball - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia answer: Better not tell you now!

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Old 08-27-2010, 06:45 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dex View Post
Hi Carl,
I really enjoy your service and have for about nine years. Thank you for all your hard work and dedication. I was wondering if you could tell me the potential technical "bottom" numbers for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq?
Thank you very much.

ANSWER: I don't follow the Nasdaq. I have rough targets of Dow 3000 and SPX 300 around late-2010. I wouldn't exactly call these "technical" targets -- I am guestimating a total decline of about 80%, using the 1929-1932 bear market 90% decline as a guide. The timing is based on the estimate for the next 4-Year Cycle low, which is due mid-to-late 2010.
While I can't swear by these estimates, I don't think I'm sticking my neck out too far.
Carl
. . . .
Carl, can you also give us a weather prediction for Miami this winter?

Answer: I'd say the lows will be around 5 degrees, using the Ice Age as a guide.
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Old 08-27-2010, 08:53 AM   #9
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Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

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Old 08-27-2010, 09:21 AM   #10
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Doug Kass, who can be quite bearish at times, believes that we have already seen the low for this year at S&P500 1020. That was in early July.

He called the March 2009 bottom, so we'll see if he can pull off a repeat.

Audrey
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Old 08-27-2010, 09:36 AM   #11
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How abou450.
S&P 500 to hit 450, SocGen strategist warns - MarketWatch

Or this
Hi Carl,
I really enjoy your service and have for about nine years. Thank you for all your hard work and dedication. I was wondering if you could tell me the potential technical "bottom" numbers for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq?
Thank you very much.

ANSWER: I don't follow the Nasdaq. I have rough targets of Dow 3000 and SPX 300 around late-2010. I wouldn't exactly call these "technical" targets -- I am guestimating a total decline of about 80%, using the 1929-1932 bear market 90% decline as a guide. The timing is based on the estimate for the next 4-Year Cycle low, which is due mid-to-late 2010.
While I can't swear by these estimates, I don't think I'm sticking my neck out too far.
Carl
. . . .



Decision Point®: Chart Spotlight 2/27/2009


I can not fall asleep tonight.

Dex, sounds to me like you better get down to the local over pass and pick out a good spot.
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Old 08-27-2010, 09:42 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by clifp View Post
I believe we are in trading range between Dow 9800 and Dow 11,000. I don't see us going +/- 10% out of this range for the next two years.
That looks to be the scenario being played out.

I was more bullish and did not get out rebalance some in April/May. In fact, I even bought some more. Else, I would have had some free cash to buy, buy, buy rebalance again now. Not selling nor buying now.

Quote:
Oh BTW, I am pretty crappy at forecasting, but I am acting on my beliefs.
I like to hear that. Sometimes, it feels better to have a belief than not knowing what to believe.
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Old 08-27-2010, 09:48 AM   #13
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I can not fall asleep tonight.
Why on earth would someone 100% in cash have anything to keep them awake at night?
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Old 08-27-2010, 09:52 AM   #14
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Dex, you need to take your Casita out for another trip. Get your mind off this gloomy stuff before the winter gets here. I am dying to go, yet that botched roof repair will keep me grounded for who knows how long.
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Old 08-27-2010, 09:57 AM   #15
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Why on earth would someone 100% in cash have anything to keep them awake at night?
I've been taking my Vitamin D and have a tan for the first time in a long time - maybe I have too much energy.

I also started reading World War Z - the Zombie Chronicles so, I'm worried about if I have enough ammo for all the zombies to come.
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Old 08-27-2010, 09:59 AM   #16
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Dex, you need to take your Casita out for another trip. Get your mind off this gloomy stuff before the winter gets here. I am dying to go, yet that botched roof repair will keep me grounded for who knows how long.
Thank - I'm thinking about going the the Gulf or North GA. next weekend.

Mentally, I'm feeling better - but still not 100%.
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Old 08-27-2010, 10:27 AM   #17
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Oh BTW, I am pretty crappy at forecasting, but I am acting on my beliefs.
(i.e. selling calls, selling stocks, and selling short when the Dow got above 10,500 and writing (selling) puts, buying stocks as the market has tested 10,000. _
If you mean you are selling naked puts around 10,000, your first sentence bothers me.

Ha
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Old 08-27-2010, 10:31 AM   #18
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How low will it go? and whats the time frame for this demolition.

When it turns back upwards how high will it rise.

Dow and S&P
In my case, the answer is I don't know - I don't care.

That's the advantage of somebody who is not a market timer (and has not been over the last 28+ years).

My AA is set to my goals (as documented in my IP), along with "my time in life" (also documented in my IP). Nothing more complicated than that...
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Old 08-27-2010, 06:22 PM   #19
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If you mean you are selling naked puts around 10,000, your first sentence bothers me.

Ha

Much like the guy who fell of the 50 story building and was asked at 30th story "how is it going". I can report so far so good.

My total naked put exposure is about 5% of the portfolio, but I've generated around 20K in option income.
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Old 08-27-2010, 07:21 PM   #20
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Well, should we slit our wrists, or start cooking and selling meth ?

I think everyone spends entirely too much time worrying about which way the market will go when it is so clear to call, it will go up and down, over and over and over again.
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