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OK- OK- Question for the Market Timers/AA
08-26-2010, 08:43 PM
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#1
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 84
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OK- OK- Question for the Market Timers/AA
How low will it go? and whats the time frame for this demolition.
When it turns back upwards how high will it rise.
Dow and S&P
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08-26-2010, 08:48 PM
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#2
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Newport Beach
Posts: 122
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Florida
How low will it go? and whats the time frame for this demolition.
When it turns back upwards how high will it rise.
Dow and S&P
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I'm not up for even guessing--I'm just totally demoralized. Hindenburg Omens, death crosses, head and shoulder patterns, none of this stuff is supposed to be meaningful, buy somehow I think the pessimists will again be right. I will then get to hear "how could you not have seen this coming" from family and friends yet again. Very depressing.
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08-26-2010, 08:51 PM
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#3
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by newporttony
I'm not up for even guessing--I'm just totally demoralized. Hindenburg Omens, death crosses, head and shoulder patterns, none of this stuff is supposed to be meaningful, buy somehow I think the pessimists will again be right. I will then get to hear "how could you not have seen this coming" from family and friends yet again. Very depressing.
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Sounds like 8250 on the DOW
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08-26-2010, 09:40 PM
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#4
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: LaLa Land
Posts: 4,698
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After the last down turn you should be used to this. The market goes up and the market goes down. How in the world would anyone know what it's going to do.
Relax and turn off the TV.
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08-27-2010, 12:08 AM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
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How abou450.
S&P 500 to hit 450, SocGen strategist warns - MarketWatch
Or this
Hi Carl,
I really enjoy your service and have for about nine years. Thank you for all your hard work and dedication. I was wondering if you could tell me the potential technical "bottom" numbers for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq?
Thank you very much.
ANSWER: I don't follow the Nasdaq. I have rough targets of Dow 3000 and SPX 300 around late-2010. I wouldn't exactly call these "technical" targets -- I am guestimating a total decline of about 80%, using the 1929-1932 bear market 90% decline as a guide. The timing is based on the estimate for the next 4-Year Cycle low, which is due mid-to-late 2010.
While I can't swear by these estimates, I don't think I'm sticking my neck out too far.
Carl
. . . .
Decision Point®: Chart Spotlight 2/27/2009
I can not fall asleep tonight.
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
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08-27-2010, 02:55 AM
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#6
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,733
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Florida
How low will it go? and whats the time frame for this demolition.
When it turns back upwards how high will it rise.
Dow and S&P
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I believe we are in trading range between Dow 9800 and Dow 11,000. I don't see us going +/- 10% out of this range for the next two years.
Oh BTW, I am pretty crappy at forecasting, but I am acting on my beliefs.
(i.e. selling calls, selling stocks, and selling short when the Dow got above 10,500 and writing (selling) puts, buying stocks as the market has tested 10,000. _
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08-27-2010, 03:50 AM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 5,072
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08-27-2010, 05:45 AM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 13,228
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dex
Hi Carl,
I really enjoy your service and have for about nine years. Thank you for all your hard work and dedication. I was wondering if you could tell me the potential technical "bottom" numbers for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq?
Thank you very much.
ANSWER: I don't follow the Nasdaq. I have rough targets of Dow 3000 and SPX 300 around late-2010. I wouldn't exactly call these "technical" targets -- I am guestimating a total decline of about 80%, using the 1929-1932 bear market 90% decline as a guide. The timing is based on the estimate for the next 4-Year Cycle low, which is due mid-to-late 2010.
While I can't swear by these estimates, I don't think I'm sticking my neck out too far.
Carl
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Carl, can you also give us a weather prediction for Miami this winter?
Answer: I'd say the lows will be around 5 degrees, using the Ice Age as a guide.
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08-27-2010, 07:53 AM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
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Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
Stock Cycles | Michael A. Alexander | Safehaven.com
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
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08-27-2010, 08:21 AM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,145
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Doug Kass, who can be quite bearish at times, believes that we have already seen the low for this year at S&P500 1020. That was in early July.
He called the March 2009 bottom, so we'll see if he can pull off a repeat.
Audrey
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
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08-27-2010, 08:36 AM
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#11
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: LaLa Land
Posts: 4,698
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dex
How abou450.
S&P 500 to hit 450, SocGen strategist warns - MarketWatch
Or this
Hi Carl,
I really enjoy your service and have for about nine years. Thank you for all your hard work and dedication. I was wondering if you could tell me the potential technical "bottom" numbers for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq?
Thank you very much.
ANSWER: I don't follow the Nasdaq. I have rough targets of Dow 3000 and SPX 300 around late-2010. I wouldn't exactly call these "technical" targets -- I am guestimating a total decline of about 80%, using the 1929-1932 bear market 90% decline as a guide. The timing is based on the estimate for the next 4-Year Cycle low, which is due mid-to-late 2010.
While I can't swear by these estimates, I don't think I'm sticking my neck out too far.
Carl
. . . .
Decision Point®: Chart Spotlight 2/27/2009
I can not fall asleep tonight.
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Dex, sounds to me like you better get down to the local over pass and pick out a good spot.
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08-27-2010, 08:42 AM
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#12
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clifp
I believe we are in trading range between Dow 9800 and Dow 11,000. I don't see us going +/- 10% out of this range for the next two years.
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That looks to be the scenario being played out.
I was more bullish and did not get out rebalance some in April/May. In fact, I even bought some more. Else, I would have had some free cash to buy, buy, buy rebalance again now. Not selling nor buying now.
Quote:
Oh BTW, I am pretty crappy at forecasting, but I am acting on my beliefs.
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I like to hear that. Sometimes, it feels better to have a belief than not knowing what to believe.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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08-27-2010, 08:48 AM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,021
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dex
I can not fall asleep tonight.
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Why on earth would someone 100% in cash have anything to keep them awake at night?
__________________
Numbers is hard
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08-27-2010, 08:52 AM
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#14
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Dex, you need to take your Casita out for another trip. Get your mind off this gloomy stuff before the winter gets here. I am dying to go, yet that botched roof repair will keep me grounded for who knows how long.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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08-27-2010, 08:57 AM
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#15
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
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I've been taking my Vitamin D and have a tan for the first time in a long time - maybe I have too much energy.
I also started reading World War Z - the Zombie Chronicles so, I'm worried about if I have enough ammo for all the zombies to come.
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
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08-27-2010, 08:59 AM
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#16
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
Dex, you need to take your Casita out for another trip. Get your mind off this gloomy stuff before the winter gets here. I am dying to go, yet that botched roof repair will keep me grounded for who knows how long.
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Thank - I'm thinking about going the the Gulf or North GA. next weekend.
Mentally, I'm feeling better - but still not 100%.
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
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08-27-2010, 09:27 AM
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#17
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clifp
Oh BTW, I am pretty crappy at forecasting, but I am acting on my beliefs.
(i.e. selling calls, selling stocks, and selling short when the Dow got above 10,500 and writing (selling) puts, buying stocks as the market has tested 10,000. _
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If you mean you are selling naked puts around 10,000, your first sentence bothers me.
Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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08-27-2010, 09:31 AM
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#18
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gone traveling
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Eastern PA
Posts: 3,851
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Florida
How low will it go? and whats the time frame for this demolition.
When it turns back upwards how high will it rise.
Dow and S&P
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In my case, the answer is I don't know - I don't care.
That's the advantage of somebody who is not a market timer (and has not been over the last 28+ years).
My AA is set to my goals (as documented in my IP), along with "my time in life" (also documented in my IP). Nothing more complicated than that...
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08-27-2010, 05:22 PM
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#19
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,733
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haha
If you mean you are selling naked puts around 10,000, your first sentence bothers me.
Ha
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Much like the guy who fell of the 50 story building and was asked at 30th story "how is it going". I can report so far so good.
My total naked put exposure is about 5% of the portfolio, but I've generated around 20K in option income.
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08-27-2010, 06:21 PM
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#20
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Chattanooga
Posts: 3,895
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Well, should we slit our wrists, or start cooking and selling meth ?
I think everyone spends entirely too much time worrying about which way the market will go when it is so clear to call, it will go up and down, over and over and over again.
__________________
Earning money is an action, saving money is a behavior, growing money takes a well diversified portfolio and the discipline to ignore market swings.
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