I've been running Firecalc, in anticipation of a semi-retirement next year, with 35 year results between 90.5 and 100%, depending on the scenario, which vary
1) varying 5-10k/yr withdrawals make a bit of a difference between none and 4 failures. I'm theoretically OK with a 90% success rate given #3, theoretically.
2) The downslope spending scenario (in which spending goes down 2% or so per year) is at 100%, even for a larger beginning withdrawal which is above our current spending rate. I'm not sure about this assumption, since I'll be retiring at 57.
3) There is a lot of travel and other slack in the budget I'm running (40%), including supporting my DM.
4) I'm still bugged by the fear that retiring next year will be at a market peak or close to it. ('09 trauma).
5) Almost all of the FireCalc outcome curves indicate we'll be burning cash when we croak in our 90s, as opposed to the worst case 3-8% scenarios.
6) I'm planning on semi-retirement for 1-3 years, with DW (younger) semi-working another 2-4 years. I can't quite figure out how to model this in FireCalc, but it almost surely transforms the failures in #1 to less than 5% failure, if not 100% success.
It all seems safe, but I suppose I'm planning for both myself and DW to lose jobs the next year after retirement.
Plus, retiring in one's 50's still seems non-productive from a social contribution perspective.
I guess there is volunteering, learning Russian, and writing that second book, but it still seems a bit fictive and navel-gazing.
I'm lucky to qualify both for retirement health benefits and to withdraw from my retirement, now, but next year seems safer. I can pretty much predict what most of you will post, but it still seems a bit like due diligence. DW hates her current job but will go bat-crazy at least for a few more years without something to do; I could be wrong about that, but I doubt it. Semi-retiring will reduce a bit the push-back and give me something to do.
1) varying 5-10k/yr withdrawals make a bit of a difference between none and 4 failures. I'm theoretically OK with a 90% success rate given #3, theoretically.
2) The downslope spending scenario (in which spending goes down 2% or so per year) is at 100%, even for a larger beginning withdrawal which is above our current spending rate. I'm not sure about this assumption, since I'll be retiring at 57.
3) There is a lot of travel and other slack in the budget I'm running (40%), including supporting my DM.
4) I'm still bugged by the fear that retiring next year will be at a market peak or close to it. ('09 trauma).
5) Almost all of the FireCalc outcome curves indicate we'll be burning cash when we croak in our 90s, as opposed to the worst case 3-8% scenarios.
6) I'm planning on semi-retirement for 1-3 years, with DW (younger) semi-working another 2-4 years. I can't quite figure out how to model this in FireCalc, but it almost surely transforms the failures in #1 to less than 5% failure, if not 100% success.
It all seems safe, but I suppose I'm planning for both myself and DW to lose jobs the next year after retirement.
Plus, retiring in one's 50's still seems non-productive from a social contribution perspective.
I guess there is volunteering, learning Russian, and writing that second book, but it still seems a bit fictive and navel-gazing.
I'm lucky to qualify both for retirement health benefits and to withdraw from my retirement, now, but next year seems safer. I can pretty much predict what most of you will post, but it still seems a bit like due diligence. DW hates her current job but will go bat-crazy at least for a few more years without something to do; I could be wrong about that, but I doubt it. Semi-retiring will reduce a bit the push-back and give me something to do.
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