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OMY
Old 09-14-2014, 07:33 PM   #1
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OMY

I've been running Firecalc, in anticipation of a semi-retirement next year, with 35 year results between 90.5 and 100%, depending on the scenario, which vary
1) varying 5-10k/yr withdrawals make a bit of a difference between none and 4 failures. I'm theoretically OK with a 90% success rate given #3, theoretically.
2) The downslope spending scenario (in which spending goes down 2% or so per year) is at 100%, even for a larger beginning withdrawal which is above our current spending rate. I'm not sure about this assumption, since I'll be retiring at 57.
3) There is a lot of travel and other slack in the budget I'm running (40%), including supporting my DM.
4) I'm still bugged by the fear that retiring next year will be at a market peak or close to it. ('09 trauma).
5) Almost all of the FireCalc outcome curves indicate we'll be burning cash when we croak in our 90s, as opposed to the worst case 3-8% scenarios.
6) I'm planning on semi-retirement for 1-3 years, with DW (younger) semi-working another 2-4 years. I can't quite figure out how to model this in FireCalc, but it almost surely transforms the failures in #1 to less than 5% failure, if not 100% success.

It all seems safe, but I suppose I'm planning for both myself and DW to lose jobs the next year after retirement.

Plus, retiring in one's 50's still seems non-productive from a social contribution perspective.
I guess there is volunteering, learning Russian, and writing that second book, but it still seems a bit fictive and navel-gazing.

I'm lucky to qualify both for retirement health benefits and to withdraw from my retirement, now, but next year seems safer. I can pretty much predict what most of you will post, but it still seems a bit like due diligence. DW hates her current job but will go bat-crazy at least for a few more years without something to do; I could be wrong about that, but I doubt it. Semi-retiring will reduce a bit the push-back and give me something to do.
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Old 09-14-2014, 11:08 PM   #2
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Plus, retiring in one's 50's still seems non-productive from a social contribution perspective.
I guess there is volunteering, learning Russian, and writing that second book, but it still seems a bit fictive and navel-gazing.
I checked out suddenly and unexpectedly in my late 40s without FireCalc, this website, nor other aids. A poorly-constructed financial doc-in-a-box printout was all I had, and that was months after the fact. I then created my own spreadsheet that grew and grew in functionality, and an Early-ER seemed do-able. Those were back in the days that I was putting negative returns in for future years before a market turn-up. My concerns then were "what do I do to get to age 59 1/2? Till taking early SS @62?" etc. And no retiree health ins. from megacorp at all.
Now I plan on taking SS @ 70! Last time I ran FireCalc had to be over 5 years ago! Time flies when you're retired. At least for me it has. I can't believe how quickly every day and the years go by now!

At the very first, it did seem a waste of talent, and a lot of others around me that went out the door, but I soon got over it... versus the high-stress meat grinder that I was in. There is a real possibility that I would have been deceased by now, if it hadn't happened. What a change in lifestyle and health since those days!

Someone said "Retirement is too valuable to be wasted on the elderly". I agree!!!

Even though I will be delaying SS, I have the greatest respect for everyone who is not certain that they should retire. Please keep working OMY, then OMY, repeat, to help fund SS! Thank You
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Old 09-15-2014, 12:07 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by RobLJ View Post
I've been running Firecalc, in anticipation of a semi-retirement next year, with 35 year results between 90.5 and 100%, depending on the scenario, which vary
1) varying 5-10k/yr withdrawals make a bit of a difference between none and 4 failures. I'm theoretically OK with a 90% success rate given #3, theoretically.
2) The downslope spending scenario (in which spending goes down 2% or so per year) is at 100%, even for a larger beginning withdrawal which is above our current spending rate. I'm not sure about this assumption, since I'll be retiring at 57.
3) There is a lot of travel and other slack in the budget I'm running (40%), including supporting my DM.
4) I'm still bugged by the fear that retiring next year will be at a market peak or close to it. ('09 trauma).
5) Almost all of the FireCalc outcome curves indicate we'll be burning cash when we croak in our 90s, as opposed to the worst case 3-8% scenarios.
6) I'm planning on semi-retirement for 1-3 years, with DW (younger) semi-working another 2-4 years. I can't quite figure out how to model this in FireCalc, but it almost surely transforms the failures in #1 to less than 5% failure, if not 100% success.

It all seems safe, but I suppose I'm planning for both myself and DW to lose jobs the next year after retirement.

Plus, retiring in one's 50's still seems non-productive from a social contribution perspective.
I guess there is volunteering, learning Russian, and writing that second book, but it still seems a bit fictive and navel-gazing.

I'm lucky to qualify both for retirement health benefits and to withdraw from my retirement, now, but next year seems safer. I can pretty much predict what most of you will post, but it still seems a bit like due diligence. DW hates her current job but will go bat-crazy at least for a few more years without something to do; I could be wrong about that, but I doubt it. Semi-retiring will reduce a bit the push-back and give me something to do.

My situation exactly, even our names.
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Old 09-15-2014, 06:01 AM   #4
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There are basically two types of people here.

The first group decides to retire and assumes they can control expenses when they think they've barely crossed in FI territory. The other group analyzes and studies everything which invariably leads to the OMY syndrome if not carefully recognized. Many (including me) are or were in its grips.

There was a Scott Burns article on retirement planning. His point was that many of the people trying to determine when to retire are seeking a 95+% certainty that they will have enough money until an age they have only a 5% chance of reaching. On top of that, there is no way to figure in all of the variables that can enrich or obliterate a portfolio over that period.

Even though I am a OMYer, my recommendation to you is to retire when you feel you're ready psychologically and the money end looks pretty good. Most likely you won't need as much as you think.
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Old 09-15-2014, 08:54 AM   #5
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Couldn't agree more, 2B. Reminds me of the time when my wife quit teaching to stay home with the kiddos. We weren't exactly living paycheck to paycheck, but we certainly spent most of her $30K salary, so how in the world would we ever make it? Somehow we did - we didn't pay for daycare, she shopped a bit more frugally, we didn't eat out as much, she sought out free or low cost entertainment, I got a raise, etc. It all worked out because it had to work out.

My budget is higher than most, so if I need to cut back, I can do so with relative ease. I am quite confident that it will all work out, and if times get tough, that will be telegraphed far enough in advance that I will be able to weather whatever storm is out there.

Retirement is awesome.
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Old 09-15-2014, 10:59 AM   #6
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With 40% discretionary spend the real question is - would you still be happy if you had to dial back on that spend ? If the answer is yes, then I think you are alot safer than your FIRECalc scenarios are showing.
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Old 09-15-2014, 11:35 AM   #7
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Plus, retiring in one's 50's still seems non-productive from a social contribution perspective.
I guess there is volunteering, learning Russian, and writing that second book, but it still seems a bit fictive and navel-gazing.
If you feel that way IMO you probably shouldn't retire since it would seem you want/need some purpose in your life. To me working for someone else (different if you are working for yourself) is non productive as you are wasting what time you have for someone elses benefit. If you have the means to do what YOU want do it.

This is the thing I am trying to explain to the my wife. I think she doesn't want me to retire because I'll be home all day bugging her (she "retired" 10 years ago or so in her early 40's) :P

I know of far too many people who had little or no retirement and died. None of us know when we are going to go or how and having time to do what you want when you want is to me far more precious than a few extra dollars. YMMV
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Old 09-15-2014, 12:12 PM   #8
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I began my ER planning when I was told by an a$$h**e manager that I would never be able to retire! I owe Dave a lot since that pushed me to set 55 as my goal to be able to retire, ie I would then be able to chose when I was fed up with working and could leave on my terms and do what I wanted to do. Well, it is 32 years later, and I have run the numbers on every calculator I can find, and except for some really draconian projections, I am about two years PAST where I can retire! As a favor to a staff person who I have been mentoring, I am leaving July 1,2015! My boss thinks I am happy now (I am, but not for the reasons he thinks!), and top management is looking at long term plans and figuring me into the plan. One director knows my plan, and she is supportive of me.

I am getting my DW to plan the trip we are taking next July (after a week at a pool with no cell, where my only worry is have I rolled over enough!). Nine more months!


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Old 09-15-2014, 07:17 PM   #9
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Like Taxman, I'm planning on jumping out the plan in early July (we're hiking around Scotland for two weeks in June, then work two weeks, then out.) I'm working parttime online for 40% of my salary for the first year or two, which should help ease the transition.
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Old 09-16-2014, 07:31 AM   #10
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.....6) I'm planning on semi-retirement for 1-3 years, with DW (younger) semi-working another 2-4 years. I can't quite figure out how to model this in FireCalc, but it almost surely transforms the failures in #1 to less than 5% failure, if not 100% success. .....
Can't you figure out your take-home pay from this part time work and either use pension income/off-chart spending to add it or reduce your living expenses by the take-home pay using the manual entry of spending changes feature?
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Old 09-16-2014, 02:41 PM   #11
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There are basically two types of people here.

The first group decides to retire and assumes they can control expenses when they think they've barely crossed in FI territory. The other group analyzes and studies everything which invariably leads to the OMY syndrome if not carefully recognized. Many (including me) are or were in its grips.
Well there is a middle ground here, those of us waiting until we had a cushion against another 50% market downturn before pulling the cord. That's me, and I would've been fine with OMY at age 51 if my Megacorp hadn't thrown a buyout package down that I took this year.

But the OMY was simply to get that padding, not because I was nervous about jumping (financially speaking).

For the OPs 'retiring in the 50s is a waste for society' comment, exactly what are you contributing to society by working for Megacorp? No one said you had to sit around and navel-gaze after you leave the rat race. If you don't know what you're going to do that's a whole different question.
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Old 09-17-2014, 12:39 PM   #12
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Based on your OP I think OMY is the only choice until you develop a positive attitude towards ER. In Mexico, the word for retirement is jublitation...
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Old 09-18-2014, 07:09 AM   #13
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I'm currently in the first OMY. I'm 56 1/2. I can see maybe 2-3 years more. But probably not. I think you will know. It's becoming clearer to me each day.


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Old 09-18-2014, 08:24 AM   #14
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Well there is a middle ground here, those of us waiting until we had a cushion against another 50% market downturn before pulling the cord. That's me, and I would've been fine with OMY at age 51 if my Megacorp hadn't thrown a buyout package down that I took this year.

But the OMY was simply to get that padding, not because I was nervous about jumping (financially speaking).
I'm glad you got the package but working to build a cushion isn't middle ground. You were thinking of a "what if" that had you in the OMY mode.
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Old 09-18-2014, 08:26 AM   #15
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I'm currently in the first OMY. I'm 56 1/2. I can see maybe 2-3 years more. But probably not. I think you will know. It's becoming clearer to me each day.
There's nothing wrong with OMY. You're just trading your time for money. If you like what you're doing can you still call it "work?"
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Old 09-18-2014, 09:04 AM   #16
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What the heck does OMY stand for?
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Old 09-18-2014, 09:09 AM   #17
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Old 09-18-2014, 11:03 AM   #18
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For the OPs 'retiring in the 50s is a waste for society' comment, exactly what are you contributing to society by working for Megacorp?
Filling out TPS reports?

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Old 09-18-2014, 01:52 PM   #19
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I'm glad you got the package but working to build a cushion isn't middle ground. You were thinking of a "what if" that had you in the OMY mode.
We'll just have to agree to disagree, it's not OMY because you have a target that has a cushion above minimum FI. OMY is looking every year at what you have and saying to yourself, "I just need a little more to be safe" (that sounds like you and OP).

That was not me, I decided what my number was and when I hit it I was gone. The buyout just gave me a perfect excuse to leave a year earlier than planned. It was a tough decision only because of how well I was treated (it's a very good Megacorp) and the friends I have there.

I don't think this is uncommon (the financial decision, not the nice corp).
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Old 09-18-2014, 05:11 PM   #20
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In my case, it is definitely a case of building up some cushion. I have enough now to make it but if stock market goes into a prolonged bear market, it will cause undue stress more than if I am still working. Of late, with megacorp BS increasing (or my tolerance to it evaporating), I think I am closer to FMM (few more months) than OMY.
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