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Old 10-13-2008, 10:47 AM   #21
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To put Cramer's idiotic predictions in perspective he says, referring to G-7 strategies this weekend:

"This strategy, which I presume will not be adopted, but which makes the most sense, would allow for shotgun weddings for all the weak banks to eliminate the bleeding. Without this kind of action I am reverting to a downside target of 6,700 for Monday and then 4,700 for Tuesday in keeping with the hopeful '87 playbook." http://www.thestreet.com/story/10441...ative-now.html

Today the DOW is up over 500 points, so that puts the first part of his prediction in the toilet.
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Old 10-13-2008, 10:53 AM   #22
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I was thinking of taking 15k and splitting it between Vanguards Total Market, and Total internation market.
I think getting in now is a good idea, although I might DCA in over the next 6 months.

My question is in regards to the OPs allocation, since I'm thinking similar thoughts. Would it be better to do the Vanguard Total Internation Fund, or the Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Fund? I think there is a significant overlap between the two Totoal funds. Just curious what y'alls opinions are.
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Old 10-13-2008, 10:56 AM   #23
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i personally prefer to look at charts first and fundamentals second since wall street has a lot more computers to forecast these things, and chart wise i don't think we've seen the bottom yet.

i don't like PE that much either but there is a lot of history where we get periods of PE expansion and then years of PE contraction. PE bottomed out in 1982 at around 9. it wasn't the lower than 1973 levels, but i think we are in for some PE contraction.

Safe Haven | The Market is Now in Phase 3: The De-leveraging Margin Debt ...

we're still probably not through the deleveraging process either

and these bear markets are pretty good at wiping out a lot of big companies and cleansing the indexes for the next generation of household names
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Old 10-13-2008, 10:57 AM   #24
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I think getting in now is a good idea, although I might DCA in over the next 6 months.

My question is in regards to the OPs allocation, since I'm thinking similar thoughts. Would it be better to do the Vanguard Total Internation Fund, or the Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Fund? I think there is a significant overlap between the two Totoal funds. Just curious what y'alls opinions are.
Taxable or tax deferred?

There is significant overlap, yes. You should check, but I think the FTSE all-world will let you claim the foreign tax credit if it's taxable. The Total International is a fund of funds and, as such, no tax credit.
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Old 10-13-2008, 10:59 AM   #25
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... I have quite a bit of liquid assets right now.... I was thinking of opening up a taxable Vanguard Mutual fund account. I am already maxed out on Roth IRA and 401k. I was thinking of taking 15k and splitting it between Vanguards Total Market, and Total internation market. I am currently 35, so I still have a long retirement horizon... So what do you all think.... a smart move... or a foolish one? ...
Smart move, yes, yes, yes! I was in 100% equities until age 45. I'm just now retired, age 62, with 2% of my portfolio from a recent lump sum payout to allocate, 70% of that went into equities last week, I'm thinking about waiting until Friday to put the other 30% in but may have trouble restraining myself that long. I will receive some unexpected small amounts (about two months living expenses) before the end of the year; IMO, it would be a smart move to put them straight into the market. This also looks like a good time for me to move interest and dividend amounts into a stock index. I don't see any risk to my 4% plan in doing this, in fact it should increase the odds of portfolio survival.
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Old 10-13-2008, 11:03 AM   #26
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I think you want to SELL on big UP days and BUY on big DOWN days. While today is nice, you missed it. You should've bought last week.

I think tomorrow that buyers will probably take a breather and sellers will be thinking "I gotta get out now." It will all depend on the news.
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Old 10-13-2008, 11:08 AM   #27
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So, we should sell high and buy low. What a great idea!
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Old 10-13-2008, 11:11 AM   #28
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So, we should sell high and buy low. What a great idea!
Yeah, it's the opposite of the car business, where you buy high and sell low........
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Old 10-13-2008, 11:14 AM   #29
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I think getting in now is a good idea, although I might DCA in over the next 6 months.

My question is in regards to the OPs allocation, since I'm thinking similar thoughts. Would it be better to do the Vanguard Total Internation Fund, or the Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Fund? I think there is a significant overlap between the two Totoal funds. Just curious what y'alls opinions are.
Bogleheads give an in depth answer to this question:


FAQ on Vanguard International Funds - Bogleheads
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Old 10-13-2008, 11:17 AM   #30
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Wow... thanks for the overwhelming response... I think I will probably wait till the end of the month to do this. I agree with some of the postings here... that the market will take another nose dive or two shortly. At any rate... this will be money for the long term.... not anything less than 20 yrs away...
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Old 10-13-2008, 11:20 AM   #31
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I think you want to SELL on big UP days and BUY on big DOWN days. While today is nice, you missed it. You should've bought last week.

I think tomorrow that buyers will probably take a breather and sellers will be thinking "I gotta get out now." It will all depend on the news.
I'm wondering about this too; I'm really expecting a bunch of retail sellers to liquidate into this rally and give us some dips for this afternoon. Maybe everyone got krunked over the weekend and are facing today a little calmer.
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Old 10-13-2008, 12:03 PM   #32
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I thought you all said market timing was a losers game. Everyone here is doing it but under a different name. A lot of threads of late are all versions of some degree of market timing.
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Old 10-13-2008, 12:20 PM   #33
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I thought you all said market timing was a losers game. Everyone here is doing it but under a different name. A lot of threads of late are all versions of some degree of market timing.
I've been waiting for stocks to become cheaper to increase my stock allocation from 60% to 70%. I guess that is market timing, but I don't care what it's called. I call it a plan.

Others have been talking about when to rebalance. Some use a timeline and others use a percentage of deviation.

Personally, I think the important thing (for me) is not to panic and sell when the market is tanking or go 100% stock just because the market is shooting up.
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Old 10-13-2008, 12:33 PM   #34
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Actually, I am doing the same and I call it a plan that uses common sense. I tried to share a conversation about this earlier and received only a couple responses because it was "market timing"...a not approved of method of investing by most on this forum.

Good luck Helen....may you make wise judgements. I am still holding...even with the rally we are seeing today. Tomorrow is for fishing....the trout are hungry after all this rain...I hope!! After that we shall see!
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Old 10-13-2008, 12:56 PM   #35
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Good luck Helen....may you make wise judgements. I am still holding...even with the rally we are seeing today. Tomorrow is for fishing....the trout are hungry after all this rain...I hope!! After that we shall see!
Thank you. I haven't been buying bonds in my 401k for a couple of months now, only stock. Last week I moved some bond money into stocks within the 401k, but with the drop afterwards, it didn't put much of a dent in my quest to reach 70% stocks. I also put dividend money from my Roth into stocks.

Good luck with the trout fishing. I'm flying back to Oregon tomorrow after spending a week leaf peeping in the UP of Michigan with my Mom (we took some of my Dad's ashes to MTU where he had attended in the 1920's). I'm glad I missed the rain!
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Old 10-13-2008, 01:39 PM   #36
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Bogleheads give an in depth answer to this question:


FAQ on Vanguard International Funds - Bogleheads

Thanks for this link. It was a great summary of the two funds, particularily the one-liner: "Buy Total International in a tax-advantaged account and FTSE All-World ex-US in a taxable account."

Maybe it's not quite that simple, as even in a tax-advantaged account I would ideally like to get more exposure to Canada. But it's a good starting point anyway.
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Old 10-13-2008, 01:43 PM   #37
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Maybe it's not quite that simple, as even in a tax-advantaged account I would ideally like to get more exposure to Canada. But it's a good starting point anyway.
Just start putting gravy on your fries. That'll give you plenty of exposure to Canada

We're moving to Total Int in out tax-deferred and FTSE ex-US in our taxable. Sort of a 50/50 split of our international component... although, to be honest, I've been re-thinking at least the level of our exposure on that front lately. I may switch things around based on a lower international exposure.
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Old 10-13-2008, 02:06 PM   #38
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Thanks for this link. It was a great summary of the two funds, particularily the one-liner: "Buy Total International in a tax-advantaged account and FTSE All-World ex-US in a taxable account."

Maybe it's not quite that simple, as even in a tax-advantaged account I would ideally like to get more exposure to Canada. But it's a good starting point anyway.
what exactly does canada do except natural resources who's value has just plummeted in price?
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Old 10-13-2008, 02:08 PM   #39
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what exactly does canada do except natural resources who's value has just plummeted in price?
Bundy, I like your approach. After all, if you don't sell low, how can you buy high?

Ha
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Old 10-13-2008, 02:42 PM   #40
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it's like buying oil when it's at $140 a barrel and the price move is almost straight up and the average price is trending down

i did read something this weekend about how Canada has the strongest banking system in the world these days. curious about how many loans they have to oil producers based on $120/barrell oil projections. wonder what those loans are worth when oil is going to sell for $60 a barrel like i think it will next year
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