Once in a lifetime buying opportunity???

[LOL!]

I think you want to SELL on big UP days and BUY on big DOWN days. While today is nice, you missed it. You should've bought last week.

I think tomorrow that buyers will probably take a breather and sellers will be thinking "I gotta get out now." It will all depend on the news.

 

[73ss454]

So, we should sell high and buy low. What a great idea!

 

[FinanceDude]

So, we should sell high and buy low. What a great idea!

Yeah, it's the opposite of the car business, where you buy high and sell low........

 

[Retire Soon]

I think getting in now is a good idea, although I might DCA in over the next 6 months.

My question is in regards to the OPs allocation, since I'm thinking similar thoughts. Would it be better to do the Vanguard Total Internation Fund, or the Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Fund? I think there is a significant overlap between the two Totoal funds. Just curious what y'alls opinions are.

Bogleheads give an in depth answer to this question:


FAQ on Vanguard International Funds - Bogleheads

 

[armor99]

Wow... thanks for the overwhelming response... I think I will probably wait till the end of the month to do this. I agree with some of the postings here... that the market will take another nose dive or two shortly. At any rate... this will be money for the long term.... not anything less than 20 yrs away...

 

[Marquette]

I think you want to SELL on big UP days and BUY on big DOWN days. While today is nice, you missed it. You should've bought last week.

I think tomorrow that buyers will probably take a breather and sellers will be thinking "I gotta get out now." It will all depend on the news.

I'm wondering about this too; I'm really expecting a bunch of retail sellers to liquidate into this rally and give us some dips for this afternoon. Maybe everyone got krunked over the weekend and are facing today a little calmer.

 

[guest]

I thought you all said market timing was a losers game. Everyone here is doing it but under a different name. A lot of threads of late are all versions of some degree of market timing.

 

[Helen]

I thought you all said market timing was a losers game. Everyone here is doing it but under a different name. A lot of threads of late are all versions of some degree of market timing.

I've been waiting for stocks to become cheaper to increase my stock allocation from 60% to 70%. I guess that is market timing, but I don't care what it's called. I call it a plan.

Others have been talking about when to rebalance. Some use a timeline and others use a percentage of deviation.

Personally, I think the important thing (for me) is not to panic and sell when the market is tanking or go 100% stock just because the market is shooting up.

 

[guest]

Actually, I am doing the same and I call it a plan that uses common sense. I tried to share a conversation about this earlier and received only a couple responses because it was "market timing"...a not approved of method of investing by most on this forum.

Good luck Helen....may you make wise judgements. I am still holding...even with the rally we are seeing today. Tomorrow is for fishing....the trout are hungry after all this rain...I hope!! After that we shall see!

 

[Helen]

Good luck Helen....may you make wise judgements. I am still holding...even with the rally we are seeing today. Tomorrow is for fishing....the trout are hungry after all this rain...I hope!! After that we shall see!

Thank you. I haven't been buying bonds in my 401k for a couple of months now, only stock. Last week I moved some bond money into stocks within the 401k, but with the drop afterwards, it didn't put much of a dent in my quest to reach 70% stocks. I also put dividend money from my Roth into stocks.

Good luck with the trout fishing. I'm flying back to Oregon tomorrow after spending a week leaf peeping in the UP of Michigan with my Mom (we took some of my Dad's ashes to MTU where he had attended in the 1920's). I'm glad I missed the rain!

 

[Lusitan]

Bogleheads give an in depth answer to this question:


FAQ on Vanguard International Funds - Bogleheads

Thanks for this link. It was a great summary of the two funds, particularily the one-liner: "Buy Total International in a tax-advantaged account and FTSE All-World ex-US in a taxable account."

Maybe it's not quite that simple, as even in a tax-advantaged account I would ideally like to get more exposure to Canada. But it's a good starting point anyway.

 

[Marquette]

Maybe it's not quite that simple, as even in a tax-advantaged account I would ideally like to get more exposure to Canada. But it's a good starting point anyway.

Just start putting gravy on your fries. That'll give you plenty of exposure to Canada

We're moving to Total Int in out tax-deferred and FTSE ex-US in our taxable. Sort of a 50/50 split of our international component... although, to be honest, I've been re-thinking at least the level of our exposure on that front lately. I may switch things around based on a lower international exposure.

 

[al_bundy]

Thanks for this link. It was a great summary of the two funds, particularily the one-liner: "Buy Total International in a tax-advantaged account and FTSE All-World ex-US in a taxable account."

Maybe it's not quite that simple, as even in a tax-advantaged account I would ideally like to get more exposure to Canada. But it's a good starting point anyway.

what exactly does canada do except natural resources who's value has just plummeted in price?

 

[haha]

what exactly does canada do except natural resources who's value has just plummeted in price?

Bundy, I like your approach. After all, if you don't sell low, how can you buy high?

Ha

 

[al_bundy]

it's like buying oil when it's at $140 a barrel and the price move is almost straight up and the average price is trending down

i did read something this weekend about how Canada has the strongest banking system in the world these days. curious about how many loans they have to oil producers based on $120/barrell oil projections. wonder what those loans are worth when oil is going to sell for $60 a barrel like i think it will next year

 

[Marquette]

I thought you all said market timing was a losers game. Everyone here is doing it but under a different name. A lot of threads of late are all versions of some degree of market timing.

Well that's easy... when I do it, it's because it's a blue light special with never before seen valuations. Mr. Market is practically holding a gun to my head and forcing me to buy. when someone else does it, well then that's dirty market timing.

Good point, though.

 

[ERD50]

Wow... thanks for the overwhelming response... I think I will probably wait till the end of the month to do this. I agree with some of the postings here... that the market will take another nose dive or two shortly.

I thought you all said market timing was a losers game. Everyone here is doing it but under a different name. A lot of threads of late are all versions of some degree of market timing.

We have just had a drop in the market of historic proportions.

Think about that a while.... historic.... proportions ....

To put it simply, after a 40% drop, how much 'better' (buying opp wise) is it gonna get? Yes, *maybe* it will drop more, but in the long run, it is not about hitting the exact peaks and troughs. Just a little bias in your favor will go a long way. AFAIAC, that 40% drop was more than a little bias.

When I am on the fence in a financial decision, I will often just split it in half to hedge my bet. In this case, if I felt like armor99 does, I'd drop half in now, and hold back half for any further drops. Then you need plan B - what if the drops don't come, or you miss them? You need a plan ahead of time - DCA at some point?

-ERD50

 

[guest]

ERD 50,

I agree completely! That was my point when I asked about market surges and timing the re-entry with the current financial flavor in my last thread lead titled "market timers unite".

My risk/tolerance means I WILL miss the bottom and the initial up surge, but it doesn't mean I will miss everything....it definitely is a BUY opportunity. One that I have no intention on missing!!!!

 

[chinaco]

We got this once in a lifetime opportunity back in the 2000 to 2003 timeframe. We were hoping to not see it again.

Instead of the lost decade... It will be the lost 2 decades.

 

[LOL!]

We got this once in a lifetime opportunity back in the 2000 to 2003 timeframe. We were hoping to not see it again.

Yep, that's right. This ain't a "once in a lifetime opportunity" unless you live a very short life. I'm afraid you will have more opportunities like this going forward. A few years from now, we will see posts on this forum like, "Well, back in October 2008 it was worse, so get ready to buy." Or "Yep, it was amazing. I went all in after the 5300 point drop on October 27, 2008 and made my fortune."

Many stocks have a ratio for the 52-week-high divided by the 52-week-low of greater than 2. That is, many stocks gain 100% in the course of a year. They just don't all happen at the same time.

 

[walkinwood]

This downturn has knocked my asset allocation off kilter - beyond the tolerance bands. But not having the stomach to re-balance in one move, I'm dollar-cost-averaging from bonds into equity over the next 12 months in equal installments. (I'm ER'd, so no new income) I started yesterday and will invest on the 15th of each month until the asset allocation comes back in line. It may take less or more than the 12 months depending on the way the markets go.

 

[ziggy29]

Let's just say that as of now, with respect to the thread title, that train appears to have left the station... at least for now. If some of the bears are right, though, keep your powder dry and there will be another chance.

As for 2002-2003 valuations, they were largely higher than the valuations we saw over the weekend. Plenty of great businesses were almost as cheap as they were at the end of the bear in 1974.

 

[haha]

Let's just say that as of now, with respect to the thread title, that train appears to have left the station... at least for now. If some of the bears are right, though, keep your powder dry and there will be another chance.

As for 2002-2003 valuations, they were largely higher than the valuations we saw over the weekend. Plenty of great businesses were almost as cheap as they were at the end of the bear in 1974.

Agree Ziggy. BTW, congratulations on overcoming your lamentations over not listening to your voices back in October 2007.

Ha

 

[REWahoo]

Agree Ziggy. BTW, congratulations on overcoming your lamentations over not listening to your voices back in October 2007.

Ha, whatever you do, don't bring that subject up again! We need to be respectful of Zig's loss and not constantly remind him of his stu...uh... missed opportunity.

 

[Canadian Grunt]

I averaged down through all this turmoil in the markets. I am 100% stocks at the bottom. Hope this rally continues because the strategy has paid off so far, although I was down for the count a few times but still made the bell