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Old 10-13-2008, 02:43 PM   #41
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I thought you all said market timing was a losers game. Everyone here is doing it but under a different name. A lot of threads of late are all versions of some degree of market timing.
Well that's easy... when I do it, it's because it's a blue light special with never before seen valuations. Mr. Market is practically holding a gun to my head and forcing me to buy. when someone else does it, well then that's dirty market timing.

Good point, though.
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Old 10-13-2008, 03:40 PM   #42
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Wow... thanks for the overwhelming response... I think I will probably wait till the end of the month to do this. I agree with some of the postings here... that the market will take another nose dive or two shortly.
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I thought you all said market timing was a losers game. Everyone here is doing it but under a different name. A lot of threads of late are all versions of some degree of market timing.

We have just had a drop in the market of historic proportions.

Think about that a while.... historic.... proportions ....

To put it simply, after a 40% drop, how much 'better' (buying opp wise) is it gonna get? Yes, *maybe* it will drop more, but in the long run, it is not about hitting the exact peaks and troughs. Just a little bias in your favor will go a long way. AFAIAC, that 40% drop was more than a little bias.

When I am on the fence in a financial decision, I will often just split it in half to hedge my bet. In this case, if I felt like armor99 does, I'd drop half in now, and hold back half for any further drops. Then you need plan B - what if the drops don't come, or you miss them? You need a plan ahead of time - DCA at some point?

-ERD50
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Old 10-13-2008, 04:46 PM   #43
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ERD 50,

I agree completely! That was my point when I asked about market surges and timing the re-entry with the current financial flavor in my last thread lead titled "market timers unite".

My risk/tolerance means I WILL miss the bottom and the initial up surge, but it doesn't mean I will miss everything....it definitely is a BUY opportunity. One that I have no intention on missing!!!!
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Old 10-14-2008, 03:23 AM   #44
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We got this once in a lifetime opportunity back in the 2000 to 2003 timeframe. We were hoping to not see it again.

Instead of the lost decade... It will be the lost 2 decades.
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Old 10-14-2008, 06:24 AM   #45
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We got this once in a lifetime opportunity back in the 2000 to 2003 timeframe. We were hoping to not see it again.
Yep, that's right. This ain't a "once in a lifetime opportunity" unless you live a very short life. I'm afraid you will have more opportunities like this going forward. A few years from now, we will see posts on this forum like, "Well, back in October 2008 it was worse, so get ready to buy." Or "Yep, it was amazing. I went all in after the 5300 point drop on October 27, 2008 and made my fortune."

Many stocks have a ratio for the 52-week-high divided by the 52-week-low of greater than 2. That is, many stocks gain 100% in the course of a year. They just don't all happen at the same time.
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Old 10-14-2008, 07:45 AM   #46
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This downturn has knocked my asset allocation off kilter - beyond the tolerance bands. But not having the stomach to re-balance in one move, I'm dollar-cost-averaging from bonds into equity over the next 12 months in equal installments. (I'm ER'd, so no new income) I started yesterday and will invest on the 15th of each month until the asset allocation comes back in line. It may take less or more than the 12 months depending on the way the markets go.
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Old 10-14-2008, 08:35 AM   #47
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Let's just say that as of now, with respect to the thread title, that train appears to have left the station... at least for now. If some of the bears are right, though, keep your powder dry and there will be another chance.

As for 2002-2003 valuations, they were largely higher than the valuations we saw over the weekend. Plenty of great businesses were almost as cheap as they were at the end of the bear in 1974.
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Old 10-14-2008, 08:47 AM   #48
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Let's just say that as of now, with respect to the thread title, that train appears to have left the station... at least for now. If some of the bears are right, though, keep your powder dry and there will be another chance.

As for 2002-2003 valuations, they were largely higher than the valuations we saw over the weekend. Plenty of great businesses were almost as cheap as they were at the end of the bear in 1974.
Agree Ziggy. BTW, congratulations on overcoming your lamentations over not listening to your voices back in October 2007.

Ha
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Old 10-14-2008, 08:51 AM   #49
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Agree Ziggy. BTW, congratulations on overcoming your lamentations over not listening to your voices back in October 2007.
Ha, whatever you do, don't bring that subject up again! We need to be respectful of Zig's loss and not constantly remind him of his stu...uh... missed opportunity.
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Old 10-14-2008, 08:52 AM   #50
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I averaged down through all this turmoil in the markets. I am 100% stocks at the bottom. Hope this rally continues because the strategy has paid off so far, although I was down for the count a few times but still made the bell
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