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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure
Old 08-26-2006, 11:12 PM   #21
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure

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Originally Posted by Nords
Otherwise we'd all be using Chinese-designed cell phones, computers, microwaves, ...
I can't speak for computers or microwaves, but many folks here are using Chinese designed cell phones.......
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure
Old 08-26-2006, 11:27 PM   #22
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure

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Originally Posted by HaHa
This appears to be how Warren Buffet sees it. We buy, they sell. They need us as much as we need them.

But not for long, this is a transition. Who can doubt that a nation of over 1 billion intelligent hard working people will very soon develop a huge home market for their goods?

When that happens we'll be on our own again, but unfortunately we will have misssed a generation of manufacturing expertise development.

As to intellectual property, remember than China alone graduates many, many times more scientists and engineers every year than we do in the US. I imagine they will soon not have any unusual need for our intellectual capital.

Ha

a lot of chineese manufacturing is done with US machines. a lot of the computer chips are made on US designed chip machines.

the high end manufacturing is still in the US. the cheapo stuff is in china

cell phones aren't high tech. they are a mix of US designed high tech that is cheaply made in china
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure
Old 08-26-2006, 11:49 PM   #23
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure

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cell phones aren't high tech. they are a mix of US designed high tech that is cheaply made in china
Cell phone design is being transferred to Asia/China and is an example of US firms desire to outsource more design work to Asia/China just as they have outsourced much manufacturing.* Don't underestimate the talent and creativity of Asian/Chinese engineers. And at $10k to $12k salary, they represent a huge savings over US engineers.
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure
Old 08-27-2006, 09:37 AM   #24
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure

For how long have we worried that foreign competition would impoverish us?* At least back to the 1920's when "Under the watchful eye of Senator Reed Smoot of Utah, the party drafted the Fordney-McCumber tariff act in 1921 with an eye to increasing domestic firms' market share."* * After the stock market crash of 1929 Senator Smoot joined up with Hawley to pass another tariff increase, which is widely accredited with prolonging the Great Depression.*

Fears of foreign competition go back decades, if not millennium.* History has repeatedly shown, however, that international trade and competition increase economic growth and living standards - but no one seems to pay attention.* More recently we've been treated to various theories of how the Japanese would "eat our economic lunch", followed by the "Asian-Tigers" and now China and India.* Over that entire time (since 1981) Real GDP has grown 3.1% and Real Wages have grown 1%.* Notwithstanding increased global competition and all the xenophobic fears accompanying it, we are wealthier then we've ever been.*

I have to admit that itís dispiriting to see an internet forum presumably populated by financially savvy folks fall for this tired and discredited protectionist rhetoric.* If this group doesnít know better, what hope does the nation have in fending off wrong-headed protectionist policies, which are the real threat you should all be worried about.*
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure
Old 08-27-2006, 10:37 AM   #25
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure

Nicely stated, 3 Yrs to Go, Nicely stated.* All of this cocky-locky sky is falling crap is just that.

Competition is good for everybody, and from everybody, even the Chinese.* The Japanese were going to overwhelm us during the 80s.* Now, the Socialists are telling us that the European Common Market bunch is going to get us.* Don't bet on it.*
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure
Old 08-27-2006, 11:18 AM   #26
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure

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Originally Posted by 3 Yrs to Go
For how long have we worried that foreign competition would impoverish us?* At least back to the 1920's when "Under the watchful eye of Senator Reed Smoot of Utah, the party drafted the Fordney-McCumber tariff act in 1921 with an eye to increasing domestic firms' market share."* * After the stock market crash of 1929 Senator Smoot joined up with Hawley to pass another tariff increase, which is widely accredited with prolonging the Great Depression.*

Fears of foreign competition go back decades, if not millennium.* History has repeatedly shown, however, that international trade and competition increase economic growth and living standards - but no one seems to pay attention.* More recently we've been treated to various theories of how the Japanese would "eat our economic lunch", followed by the "Asian-Tigers" and now China and India.* Over that entire time (since 1981) Real GDP has grown 3.1% and Real Wages have grown 1%.* Notwithstanding increased global competition and all the xenophobic fears accompanying it, we are wealthier then we've ever been.*

I have to admit that itís dispiriting to see an internet forum presumably populated by financially savvy folks fall for this tired and discredited protectionist rhetoric.* If this group doesnít know better, what hope does the nation have in fending off wrong-headed protectionist policies, which are the real threat you should all be worried about.*
i was studying for a US History CLEP a few months back and found that most of this restriction of trade nonsense comes mainly from the interior of the country. the coastal states' legislators are mostly for free trade.
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure
Old 08-27-2006, 11:24 AM   #27
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure

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Originally Posted by youbet
Cell phone design is being transferred to Asia/China and is an example of US firms desire to outsource more design work to Asia/China just as they have outsourced much manufacturing.* Don't underestimate the talent and creativity of Asian/Chinese engineers.* And at $10k to $12k salary, they represent a huge savings over US engineers.
what exactly is cell phone design? the major parts like the operating system, other software, video chips are designed in the US by companies like Microsoft, Openwave, Nvidia, ATI now AMD and a few other companies. Maybe the the lower end work like putting all the high tech pieces together is being sent overseas.

It's like the Ipod. It's really nothing special and nothing high tech. just a bunch of existing tech and some apple made software to tie the whole thing together.
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure
Old 08-27-2006, 01:07 PM   #28
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure

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Originally Posted by 3 Yrs to Go
I have to admit that itís dispiriting to see an internet forum presumably populated by financially savvy folks fall for this tired and discredited protectionist rhetoric.* If this group doesnít know better, what hope does the nation have in fending off wrong-headed protectionist policies, which are the real threat you should all be worried about.*
I see here a forum with folks worried/curious about what changes need to be made by the government, businesses and individuals so that Americans continue to enjoy a good standard of living spread across the entire population.* To the degree that foreign competition changes the kinds of jobs that are available, skills that are needed, income distribution, etc., people need to be prepared to change to survive. Discussing what's happening and what's likely to happen in the future in this regard isn't dispiriting to me at all.* Would you rather that citizens march forward blindly and wind up unprepared to work in tomorrow's economy?
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure
Old 08-27-2006, 01:15 PM   #29
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure

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Originally Posted by al_bundy
what exactly is cell phone design? the major parts like the operating system, other software, video chips are designed in the US by companies like Microsoft, Openwave, Nvidia, ATI now AMD and a few other companies.
The chip sets are designed as you describe as far as I know.* Software is being increasingly outsourced.* Circuit design, PC board layout, mechanical tooling, reliability and performance testing, manufacturing systems, etc. are being increasingly outsourced.*
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure
Old 08-27-2006, 01:36 PM   #30
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure

We've obviously lost many sectors of our economy to foreign competition: consumer electronics, semiconductors, automobiles, textiles, manufacturing, etc.

So, the argument for US economic growth is that for every sector we lose, we grow or gain another.

Is there a scorecard someplace where I can get a sense of which sectors of the economy shrank and which sectors grew (or appeared)?

I know about the dot-com boom and the recent job growth in real estate (something like 40% of new jobs created in the last few years), but that's arguably not sustainable growth. So, where are we kicking butt?
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure
Old 08-27-2006, 02:02 PM   #31
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure

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Originally Posted by 3 Yrs to Go
I have to admit that itís dispiriting to see an internet forum presumably populated by financially savvy folks fall for this tired and discredited protectionist rhetoric.* If this group doesnít know better, what hope does the nation have in fending off wrong-headed protectionist policies, which are the real threat you should all be worried about.*
Ideas in politics and economics are cyclical. What is "tired and discredited" today, at least according to you, may be the latest great new thing tomorrow.

This is like trying to collect bets before the game is over.

One thing I wonder about- without credit cards and home re-fis, where would the fuel to run our consumption based economy come from?

My personal opinion is that one doesn't need to make any so called economic arguments. I donít think it is possible that an equilibrium can hold that depends on military power, without the manufacturing and natural resources to back that military up. I doubt Americans can be rentiers on the world very much longer.

Who thinks that the UK would have had their incredible rebirth over the last 25 years without the North Sea? British manufacturing, iron and coal mining were dying. The financial power of "The City" has always been there and very dominant worlwide, but it wasn't keeping the British economy afloat until it floated up on a sea of crude.

As North Sea production declines, what will replace it? Back to surgery performed on sheiks, tourists looking at Big Ben*(likely well to do Asians), high class hookers serving* the international elite. You know, economically similar to Jamaica plus Bermuda today. And we are next!

We are walking loudly, and carrying a large but rotten stick. I have too much experience with real life to expect the nations with resources and/or manufacturing power to put up with this crap very long.

Ha
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure
Old 08-27-2006, 03:53 PM   #32
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure

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I know about the dot-com boom and the recent job growth in real estate (something like 40% of new jobs created in the last few years), but that's arguably not sustainable growth. So, where are we kicking butt?
Here's a start: financial services, media and entertainment, biotechnology, weapons systems, consulting services (oops, Accenture is headquartered in Bermuda!)

I have a friend who's a german software developer working for Nokia in Helsinki. His employeer is a british division of Accenture and several developers on his team are in India.

Quote:
I still think the trade deficit doesn't properly account for intellectual property. When an Intel engineer designs the next chip and e-mails the plans to a Taiwan fab, that "export" does not count as profit for an American company. Yet the money Intel makes on that chip design is far more profit than any Asian computer manufacturer makes on a laptop based around that chip.
Intel's new Core 2 Duo (Conroe and Mercom) chips are getting excellent reviews. They were designed in Haifa Israel by the same team who developed the Pentium-M, Intel's last good design. I remember that much of the original Pentium multimedia architecture (MMX) was also designed in Israel. Itanium was designed in the US.
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure
Old 08-27-2006, 04:06 PM   #33
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure

Where things are designed and who has the IP only matters to the engineers designing. As far as the world economy goes what is important is: Who is manufacturing and who is buying.

Another comment I want ot make here is if you are a stock holder of an international company (American or not) you will do well regardless of the exchange rates, the education of workers etc. Why: Because it is not that difficult for a company to move capital and operations form a country to another.
Workers though can be jirked around and this is only the beginning of the trend.

Kyiosaki who says a lot of stupid things could be right on that one: Which
quadrant would you like to be in. For good reason most on this forum have left or work hard to leave the Employee quadrant to the Investor one.
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure
Old 08-27-2006, 04:16 PM   #34
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure

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Originally Posted by youbet
The chip sets are designed as you describe as far as I know.* Software is being increasingly outsourced.* Circuit design, PC board layout, mechanical tooling, reliability and performance testing, manufacturing systems, etc. are being increasingly outsourced.*
except for software which is still controlled by US companies everything you named is low end stuff at least for the cheapo cell phones. the expensive cell phones use parts made and designed by US companies. Even a lot of contract manufacturers like Jabil are US based companies. The whole reason for outsourcing is that it allows companies to concentrate on a smaller number of things like only marketing and let the experts like Jabil take care of the engineering and manufacturing.

Your high end Motorola cell phone is going to have most of it's parts made or designed in the US.
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure
Old 08-27-2006, 04:28 PM   #35
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure

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Originally Posted by 3 Yrs to Go
I have to admit that itís dispiriting to see an internet forum presumably populated by financially savvy folks fall for this tired and discredited protectionist rhetoric.
The way internet forums work is that no single poster is good at everything. There will be contributors who are good at some aspects of finance or economics or LBYM or something else. And then they will make a comment about something outside their area of expertise that will make you question their sanity
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure
Old 08-27-2006, 04:36 PM   #36
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure

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Originally Posted by Scrooge
And then they will make a comment... that will make you question their sanity
You mean like this one about your annual "living" expenses?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scrooge
The total comes to $19,826....
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure
Old 08-27-2006, 04:42 PM   #37
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure

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Originally Posted by REWahoo!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scrooge
And then they will make a comment... that will make you question their sanity*
You mean like this one about your annual "living" expenses?*
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scrooge
The total comes to $19,826....
Oh, no, LBYM is my area of expertise! Now, if you want to know my opinion about overrated junk well received movies like "Lawrence of Arabia" or "The Lord of the Rings", we can take it to PMs* 8)
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure
Old 08-27-2006, 06:54 PM   #38
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure

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Originally Posted by wab
We've obviously lost many sectors of our economy to foreign competition: consumer electronics, semiconductors, automobiles, textiles, manufacturing, etc.

So, the argument for US economic growth is that for every sector we lose, we grow or gain another.

Is there a scorecard someplace where I can get a sense of which sectors of the economy shrank and which sectors grew (or appeared)?

I know about the dot-com boom and the recent job growth in real estate (something like 40% of new jobs created in the last few years), but that's arguably not sustainable growth.* * So, where are we kicking butt?
IT is still running pretty strong but unlike the dot com boom it's more specialized and you have to know something more than just how to spell computer
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure
Old 08-27-2006, 06:59 PM   #39
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure

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Originally Posted by al_bundy
IT is still running pretty strong but unlike the dot com boom it's more specialized and you have to know something more than just how to spell computer
I looked for good data on GDP growth by sector, and I haven't been able to find something that gives a good picture. The BEA has a lot of data available, but it's hard to connect all the dots. The one thing that is clear is that IT had annualized growth of around 22% from 1995-2000, and now that growth has slowed to about 11%.

So, we have some healthy sectors, but even the healthy ones don't seem to be as strong as they once were.
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure
Old 08-27-2006, 07:21 PM   #40
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Re: One Measure of US Economic Failure

11% is still three times as good as economic growth of the last few years

no sector goes up strongly forever. there are economic cycles and different sectors go up at different rates in different cycles.
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