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Online Monte Carlo calculator
Old 12-02-2003, 06:18 PM   #1
 
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Online Monte Carlo calculator

Does anybody remember Galeno from the free Motley Fool boards? This isn't to stir up "controversy" it involves a monte carlo program he pointed to a few yrs back.

It seems to have been removed (after all this time) from the web. Anybody know if it's been moved or when it'll be back?

These are the old URLs to jog your memory

http://www.geocities.com/Heartland/M...drawalSim.html

http://www.geocities.com/nandmmeyer/...drawalSim.html
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Re: Online Monte Carlo calculator
Old 12-02-2003, 07:47 PM   #2
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Re: Online Monte Carlo calculator

I don't know the answer to your questions, but Galeno has appeared occasionally on the MSN Retire Early Boards. And the folks on the No Fee Boards seem enamoured with Monte Carlo simulations and probably know of links that would get you what you are looking for. I'm very skeptical about the value of Monte Carlo analysis for several technical reasons, but the analysis can be useful for qualitative answers.
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Re: Online Monte Carlo calculator
Old 12-02-2003, 09:17 PM   #3
 
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Re: Online Monte Carlo calculator

Thanx SG. I'm with you btw. I don't really trust Monte Carlo that much but I like to play "what ifs" and compare results with historical analysis a la the FIRE Calc. I just happen to like the Galeno one because it's more versatile than the I-Orp and MoneyChimp kind. And I like all the colors
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Re: Online Monte Carlo calculator
Old 12-02-2003, 09:29 PM   #4
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Re: Online Monte Carlo calculator

RoyUtah,

I just ran across a TIAA-CREF article that might interest you. Go to:

www.tiaa-crefinstitute.org

click on "Pensions and Retirement"

click on "Published Articles"

The article is titled:
Making Retirement Income Last a Lifetime
John Ameriks, TIAA-CREF Institute, Robert Veres, Inside Information and Mark J. Warshawsky
December 2001

Although the article is about annuities as a component of a retirement portfolio and how it affects portfolio longevity risk, the authors use a Monte Carlo simulator that they attempt to calibrate with a historical simulator. They publish a number of detailed tables with the results from both simulators that you might find useful if you are trying to do sanity checks on your own what-if simulations.
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Re: Online Monte Carlo calculator
Old 01-17-2004, 01:45 PM   #5
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Re: Online Monte Carlo calculator

FYI...
There is a somewhat limited (in terms of inputs...example being asset allocation mix) calculator at T.Rowe Price that claims to use Monte Carlo Simulation. I've run it a few times and it seems to come out a bit more conservative on safe withdrawal rates vs. FireCalcs's back testing with historical data.....
for what it's worth...
http://www3.troweprice.com/ric/RIC/
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Re: Online Monte Carlo calculator
Old 01-18-2004, 02:41 AM   #6
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Re: Online Monte Carlo calculator

I too have looked for it, with no luck.

FWIW, when it was first made known to the Motley Fool RE forum readers, it was compared with the historical model used by FireCal, and the results were pretty similar, assuming your volatility and return inputs were those of the market as a whole. I think I used the figures for the Vanguard Total Market Index fund as the input.

Surprise surprise -- 4%.

It offered some very useful ways of looking at the outcomes when the volatility was varied.

Dory36
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