Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 08-04-2007, 01:54 PM   #41
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,304
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dawg52 View Post
Ready?? I thought we were already on a roller coaster.
hmmm was wondering what that dropping feeling was ...
having sipped the kool aid, I am waiting for the cycle to complete. Glad I have my 3 year cd 'bucket' in place. ... where is my 2000 calendar?
Best of luck to you dmt's.
__________________

__________________
Life is GREAT!
megacorp-firee is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 08-04-2007, 05:36 PM   #42
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: North of Montana
Posts: 2,753
And the single stock that makes up 1/4 to 1/3 of my NW just hit a new all time high on Friday. Damn.
__________________

__________________
There are two kinds of people in the world: those who can extrapolate conclusions from insufficient data and ..
kumquat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-04-2007, 07:09 PM   #43
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
Whats that old saying?

Pride goeth before the fall?
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-04-2007, 11:54 PM   #44
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,304
Quote:
Originally Posted by kumquat View Post
And the single stock that makes up 1/4 to 1/3 of my NW just hit a new all time high on Friday. Damn.
Kumquat, you should take a bit of that and come down to Vegas and put it on red or black.... as I see it, it should not matter to you.
... there is a saying you hear in LV all the time ... 'I'd rather be lucky than smart'
In any case... best of luck to you. I hope you continue to be lucky.
__________________
Life is GREAT!
megacorp-firee is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2007, 10:32 AM   #45
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
Quote:
Originally Posted by Olav23 View Post
Hang on, collecting my tea leaves.

A better view of the 200-day MA over a longer time frame, to see how reliable it is (or isn't)

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/cha...517&mocktick=1


And for Dow:

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/cha...341&mocktick=1
average length of a bear market is 9 months
__________________
al_bundy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2007, 11:01 AM   #46
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
"The study encompassed the period from late 1979 and until last week, over which time buying and holding the S&P 500 index produced a 10.2% annualized return.

In contrast, a strategy that switched between the S&P 500 and commercial paper according to whether the S&P 500 was above or below its 200-day moving average produced an 11% annualized return. And not only did the strategy market more money than buying and holding, it did so while being significantly less risky than the overall market. That's a winning combination. "

"From Jan. 1, 2000, through the past week, the 200-day moving average strategy analyzed by Ned Davis Research beat a buy-and-hold by 1.8 percentage points per year, on an annualized basis. And it did so while being out of the stock market nearly 40% of the time. The volatility of its returns this decade was 35% less than for buying and holding."
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2007, 12:06 PM   #47
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 423
What about the S&P500 buy-write ETN?

BXM generated superior risk-adjusted returns over the last 18 years, generating a return comparable to that of the S&P 500 with approximately two-thirds of the risk. (The compound annual return of the BXM was 11.77% compared to 11.67% for the S&P 500, and BXM returns were generated with a standard deviation of 9.29%, two-thirds of the 13.89% volatility of the S&P 500.)

BigCharts - Printer-Friendly Format

Maybe they can make an ETN that follows your strategy, and have it be perfectly tax efficient. Sounds great! Send in a suggestion!
__________________
Olav23 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2007, 01:16 PM   #48
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
Oh its not my strategy, in fact this is a pretty old and fairly basic scheme thats been applied to individual stocks, broad markets, etc. The theory is simple: when something falls sharply enough to break its long term average price, it usually continues to go down for a time. And it drags that long term average with it.

So if you sell on a break to the downside...maybe throwing in 2-5 days of being 'below the line', and buy on a break to the upside...its a very rare circumstance that your buy price is higher than your sell price. And most of the time you're out of the carnage.

Like many other indicators, it fell from favor in the 90's. As mentioned, I dont take it as a buy-sell signal. Just one of the lights on the dashboard.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-05-2007, 08:34 PM   #49
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 11,617
Quote:
Originally Posted by kumquat View Post
And the single stock that makes up 1/4 to 1/3 of my NW just hit a new all time high on Friday. Damn.
What fun is this? Give us the ticker symbol of the stock so we can jeer at you when it crashes and burns. Then you can tell us you sold it all already. The virtual world is great!
__________________
"Freedom begins when you tell Mrs. Grundy to go fly a kite." - R. Heinlein
samclem is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2008, 07:02 PM   #50
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
I thought I'd bump this year old thread a bit and show an updated chart.

As I noted about a year ago, we were about to break the s&p 500's 200 day moving average. A practice of getting out of equities when the s&p's price goes below the line for more than 5-7 business days and getting back in when the price slips above the line for more than 5-7 business days would have kept you out of the slide from 2000 to mid 2003 as well as much of that nasty little slip in 1998.

Turns out it was a good predictor of the current drop as well. Following the same mechanics would have taken you out of the market at about 1480 and you'd still be out. We came up and banged our heads on the line once in mid may before retreating again.

We're on our way back up for another try...

Of course, following this strategy can be tricky when the index is close to the line and whips itself around a while, which is why you have to put a week or so of up-down time into the equation.

Oh, and vanguard most certainly would not like this trading strategy at all.
Attached Images
File Type: jpg 200 day ma again.JPG (126.4 KB, 20 views)
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2008, 03:26 PM   #51
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
Thought I'd bump this and point out that this metric would have taken you out of the market in late 2007 at around 1480.

We've fallen dramatically away from the 200 day moving average, so it looks like it'll be a while before we get back to it. In the 2000-2002 drop the decline was pretty gentle, with the 200 day MA following it pretty closely down and back up. Not this time.

This would make it three out of the last three bear markets that this metric worked almost perfectly...it does leave a little money on the table on both ends, not nicking either the lowest low or the highest high...but dang if you'd followed this rule you'd be doing pretty dang well.

Could it really be this easy?
Attached Images
File Type: jpg sp500 200 day.JPG (119.0 KB, 19 views)
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2008, 04:23 PM   #52
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
dex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
Quote:
Originally Posted by cute fuzzy bunny View Post
...but dang if you'd followed this rule you'd be doing pretty dang well.

Could it really be this easy?
I think we got complacent and forgot the lessons of the past - I know I did and I studied them.

Then again not many though it would get this bad - maybe a shallow recession - so stay in and ride it out so you don't miss the upturn.

"The market teaches you to loose."
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
dex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2008, 04:59 PM   #53
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Lsbcal's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 5,696
CFB, so have you got a technical way to time a rebalance into equities? Looking at past recessions I see since the 70's that the SP500 low was around 3 to 19 months after the start of a recession (as defined by NBER). In May Buffet was calling this a recession but no official one until 2 qtrs of negative GNP.
__________________
Lsbcal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2008, 08:39 PM   #54
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
when you put up a chart make sure you have it show the macd. in 1973, 1929 and 2002 the lower low was made on a higher low on the macd indicator which is nothing more than an average of 12-26 prior trading periods. best indicator of capitulation ever. also noticed that if you check the psychological indicators like put/call ratio or VIX they usually spike on the first low and then the lower low is made on lower fear levels. probably means the retail investors are panicking and bailing out

trying to time it by so many months into the bear or recession is useless
__________________
al_bundy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2008, 06:42 PM   #55
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
Safe Haven | How We Called the Stock Market Crash of 2008 To the Day

supposedly these guys called it right a week or two before the crash
__________________
al_bundy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2008, 07:36 PM   #56
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 11,617
Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy View Post
Safe Haven | How We Called the Stock Market Crash of 2008 To the Day

supposedly these guys called it right a week or two before the crash
Wow.

This lady picked 5 of 6 numbers correctly to win a million dollars.

Same degree of skill.

Connecticut Great-Grandmother Wins $1 Million Powerball Prize!
Waiting in line at the Shaw’s Grocery customer service desk in Fairfield, Rose Marks of Bridgeport almost decided to step away before buying a Powerball Quick Pick ticket for the Saturday, September 20 drawing. But, “my feet didn’t move,” Rose told Connecticut Lottery officials. Instead, she waited for the one ticket she planned to buy, a $2 Powerball with PowerPlay ticket. Rose’s patience paid off with a $1,000,000 prize for matching 5 of the 6 numbers drawn that night.
__________________
"Freedom begins when you tell Mrs. Grundy to go fly a kite." - R. Heinlein
samclem is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2008, 07:41 PM   #57
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
TromboneAl's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 11,201
I hope she uses some of that $1 million to get a better bra.
__________________
Al
TromboneAl is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2008, 07:43 PM   #58
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Moemg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Sarasota,fl.
Posts: 10,038
CFB, I will give you a lifetime membership to bacon of the month if you PM me the next time it's time to get out !
__________________
Moemg is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2008, 08:07 PM   #59
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 11,617
Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl View Post
I hope she uses some of that $1 million to get a better bra.
That IS better! You should have seen the "before" picture.
__________________

__________________
"Freedom begins when you tell Mrs. Grundy to go fly a kite." - R. Heinlein
samclem is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Memorial Day musings from someone I served with.. dory36 Other topics 2 05-30-2005 09:48 AM
S&P 500 drops below 200 day MA cute fuzzy bunny FIRE and Money 21 04-25-2005 11:39 AM
Re: A Bad ER Day? BUM Life after FIRE 22 04-13-2005 07:43 AM
This company pays 1% per day 365 days a year! powercash FIRE and Money 3 02-28-2005 04:33 PM
Your day to do it dex Other topics 7 08-26-2004 12:19 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 07:18 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.