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If we go with a 3% real return what we are really saying is it will take 24 years to double our money (using the rule of 72).
To me this illustrates how conservative this estimate is. Does it really take a legitimate business 24 years to double its money?
If we go ahead and be conservative and use 3% real anyway what should we do if stocks tank 50%? Increase our estimate to 6%? If we stick with 3% after they fall then we are saying we expect it to take 48 years to double the original amount.
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