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Old 03-18-2008, 08:52 AM   #21
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i think the sp500 is going to rally around 10%
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Old 03-18-2008, 09:49 AM   #22
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one of the threads here i predicted 1220 or 1170 by the end of march, amending that to around 1400 by mid-april
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Old 03-18-2008, 10:03 AM   #23
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Companies that acted responsibly (have a track record of it) have cash and will pick up some of the companies run by fools for a song.

Those companies wait for the bad times for easy M&A opportunities.

Apparently JPM did not get in too deep and has plenty of assets. JPMorgan ducks subprime, poised to grow: Barron's | Reuters
Jamie Dimon would LOVE to buy Citi.........
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Old 03-18-2008, 11:54 AM   #24
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Is this the panic of 2008? The 1907 Bank Panic resulted essentially from bad loans and ended in:
1 - banks failing and JP Morgan bailing out some banks
3 - a recession
4 - market down 50%
So, let's see:
1 check
2 probably check
3 probably not, but
Good thing, by Feb 1908 the panic was done. If history repeats, we may be in for a bad summer but a great buying opportunity by early next year.
IMO analogies like these are like sitting under a tree full of ripe fruit and worrying that the sky is falling.

Oops, another analogy.

Today's financial world bears about as much relevance to that of 1907 as... oops, another analogy.

I don't worry about the Japanese attacking Pearl Harbor-- although they could-- or Viking raiders rampaging throughout Europe-- although they could-- or all the oxygen molecules in my house suddenly rushing to one corner of the room-- although theoretically they could.

I feel the same way about the 1907 bank panic or the 2008 "financial panic" affecting my life.

My chief regret about the last few months is that I can't easily terminate our tenant's lease, sell the rental house, and invest the after-tax gains in the stock market. That would improve both my personal "work"load and my financial situation!
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Old 03-18-2008, 12:30 PM   #25
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OK, I'm not going to start another "Whee!" thread, since it is not a record Dow, but gee - - up 300 points so far today!!

(muffled "Whee!"s coming from this direction)

This is certainly not what I expected from the market this week.
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Old 03-18-2008, 12:34 PM   #26
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I don't want to say anything because I might jinx it.
But I sure hope we've seen the bottom of this.
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Old 03-18-2008, 12:35 PM   #27
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OK, I'm not going to start another "Whee!" thread, since it is not a record Dow, but gee - - up 300 points so far today!!

(muffled "Whee!"s coming from this direction)

This is certainly not what I expected from the market this week.
Wait until 2:00 when the Fed announces the rate cut, then we can Whee or Whoa!
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Old 03-18-2008, 12:47 PM   #28
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Standing pat, although I did buy 600 shares IGR yesterday afternoon, to get back to AA goal. What the heck, the yield was north of 10%; the cap gain is just icing on the cake.
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Old 03-18-2008, 12:56 PM   #29
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Wait until 2:00 when the Fed announces the rate cut, then we can Whee or Whoa!
IMO, anything less than a full 100 basis point cut would pretty much wipe out the gains on the day. Even a 100 point cut will probably trim the gains, IMO. Not many broad rallies these days survive the 3 PM Selling Hour.
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Old 03-18-2008, 12:59 PM   #30
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Ol' Ben is trying to blow air into the housing bubble faster than it can escape. Looks a little red in the face to me...
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Old 03-18-2008, 01:06 PM   #31
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IMO, anything less than a full 100 basis point cut would pretty much wipe out the gains on the day. Even a 100 point cut will probably trim the gains, IMO. Not many broad rallies these days survive the 3 PM Selling Hour.

It may be buy the rumor, sell the news. We'll know in 10 minutes .
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Old 03-18-2008, 01:16 PM   #32
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3/4 point cut in both Fed Funds and Discount rates.
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Old 03-18-2008, 01:18 PM   #33
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3/4 point cut in both Fed Funds and Discount rates.
Oddly enough, the Dow dropped 120 points or so in a minute just now. People must have been expecting the moon.
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Old 03-18-2008, 01:18 PM   #34
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3/4 point cut in both Fed Funds and Discount rates.
Here come the sellers, I'll bet. The market might be lucky to finish up today. Let's see what happens in the last hour.
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Old 03-18-2008, 01:33 PM   #35
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Here come the sellers, I'll bet. The market might be lucky to finish up today. Let's see what happens in the last hour.
People are unloading their Bear Stearns . . .
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Old 03-18-2008, 01:38 PM   #36
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It was really tempting to sell everything between 2:00 and 2:15 ET. But I resisted.
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Old 03-18-2008, 01:54 PM   #37
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Wait until 2:00 when the Fed announces the rate cut, then we can Whee or Whoa!
Whee!

Although I could have predicted this since I put some of my dry powder to work and will be buying some more Vanguard at the close today.

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Old 03-18-2008, 02:01 PM   #38
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Good thing Im not a market timer. Or Id be pulling what little hair I have out..
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Old 03-18-2008, 02:05 PM   #39
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Me too!! I'm just glad that apparently the market isn't diving off into some abyss, never to return, as those ever-so-optimistic news reports suggested over the weekend.
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Old 03-18-2008, 02:07 PM   #40
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Me too!! I'm just glad that apparently the market isn't diving off into some abyss, never to return, as those ever-so-optimistic news reports suggested over the weekend.
Got a chuckle out of me. As the World Turns..
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