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Panic of 08?
Old 03-17-2008, 08:33 AM   #1
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Panic of 08?

Is this the panic of 2008? The 1907 Bank Panic resulted essentially from bad loans and ended in:

1 - banks failing and JP Morgan bailing out some banks
3 - a recession
4 - market down 50%

So, let's see:
1 check
2 probably check
3 probably not, but

Good thing, by Feb 1908 the panic was done. If history repeats, we may be in for a bad summer but a great buying opportunity by early next year.
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Old 03-17-2008, 08:49 AM   #2
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Hmmm - let's hope those Vanguard computers rebalancing my balanced index funds don't break down or run out of electricity.

If I put my ear to the ground my imagination can almost here them in Valley Forge humming as they work clear out here north of Kansas City!

hmmmmmmmmm - .

heh heh heh - this week may get more exciting than college basketball. .
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Old 03-17-2008, 08:53 AM   #3
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The panic is not over - no idea when it will be.
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Old 03-17-2008, 08:55 AM   #4
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The panic is not over - no idea when it will be.
I suspect the OP made a typo, but really meant by "February 1908" the Panic of 1907 was over.
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Old 03-17-2008, 09:03 AM   #5
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I suspect the OP made a typo, but really meant by "February 1908" the Panic of 1907 was over.
Yes, that was a typo, thanks for catching it. OTOH, maybe it was a Freudian typo, and we've been in a panic ever since.
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Old 03-17-2008, 09:04 AM   #6
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Big difference is that in 1907 there was no Fed. That's why JPMorgan ended up bailing out banks (at a price).
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Old 03-17-2008, 09:06 AM   #7
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Big difference is that in 1907 there was no Fed. That's why JPMorgan ended up bailing out banks (at a price).
But in one way or another, it seems like JP Morgan remains involved in the bailouts...
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Old 03-17-2008, 09:17 AM   #8
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But in one way or another, it seems like JP Morgan remains involved in the bailouts...
At least in the case of BSC, I think JPM was just the handmaiden of the Fed. Heck, the fed bacsicaly gave JPM a gift of potentially billions of dollars of filthy lucre.

Wonder what it will eventually cost them when the Fed calls its mark in?
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Old 03-17-2008, 09:19 AM   #9
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At least in the case of BSC, I think JPM was just the handmaiden of the Fed. Heck, the fed bacsicaly gave JPM a gift of potentially billions of dollars of filthy lucre.

Wonder what it will eventually cost them when the Fed calls its mark in?
weren't those loans non-recourse?
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Old 03-17-2008, 09:32 AM   #10
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Old JP better keep paying me my dividends or I will call them on the phone and cuss em out - I need the money/rumor has it Dick's sporting goods may have a big Kayak sale later this spring!

Petty cash, catching falling knives from greater and and greater height's could get very interesting!

Fear, lust, greed, passion - told ya it's the hormones!

Soooo - I add to my JPM and BAC or give it a few month's for the dust to settle?

heh heh heh - this is better than picking the sweet 16 or final 4! .
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Old 03-17-2008, 09:33 AM   #11
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At least in the case of BSC, I think JPM was just the handmaiden of the Fed. Heck, the fed bacsicaly gave JPM a gift of potentially billions of dollars of filthy lucre.

Wonder what it will eventually cost them when the Fed calls its mark in?
It's a nostalgia thing, going back to JPM himself..............
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Old 03-17-2008, 09:47 AM   #12
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It's a nostalgia thing, going back to JPM himself..............
If you think Mr. Dimon is the sentimental type, I think you may wish to reconsider.
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Old 03-17-2008, 10:22 AM   #13
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heh heh heh - this is better than picking the sweet 16 or final 4! .
KRE is looking pretty good down here.
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Old 03-17-2008, 01:01 PM   #14
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Seems like XLF is even closer to it's lowest low.

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Old 03-17-2008, 01:46 PM   #15
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If you think Mr. Dimon is the sentimental type, I think you may wish to reconsider.
No, Jamie Dimon either learned at the lap of Sandy Weill (politically correct) or was the whiz kid that figured out how to form Citi and get the govt to eradicate Glass-Steagall to make it happen (my guess)..............

I worked at Bank One and Chase, I know a LOT about Jamie Dimon.........
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John Hussman On Fed Lender-of-Last-Resort Role
Old 03-17-2008, 05:36 PM   #16
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John Hussman On Fed Lender-of-Last-Resort Role

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewer12345 View Post
Big difference is that in 1907 there was no Fed. That's why JPMorgan ended up bailing out banks (at a price).
A very clear article about how Fed actions address liquidity concerns, and market psychology, but do not accept the ultimate value risk in the assets being pledged as collateral.

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: The Fed Can Provide Liquidity, But Not Solvency - March 17, 2008


Ha
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Old 03-17-2008, 06:44 PM   #17
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A very clear article about how Fed actions address liquidity concerns, and market psychology, but do not accept the ultimate value risk in the assets being pledged as collateral.

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: The Fed Can Provide Liquidity, But Not Solvency - March 17, 2008


Ha
I read Hussman every week, I think he is credible and informative. I suppose some don't like him because he thinks you can time the market based upon valuation and market internals. His record has not been too good lately. I do like his articles though.
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Old 03-17-2008, 10:52 PM   #18
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Let's see. The Fed will have to bail out Lehman next.
Who after that? Citibank?

Any thoughts?

Brewer?
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Old 03-18-2008, 04:43 AM   #19
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Companies that acted responsibly (have a track record of it) have cash and will pick up some of the companies run by fools for a song.

Those companies wait for the bad times for easy M&A opportunities.

Apparently JPM did not get in too deep and has plenty of assets. JPMorgan ducks subprime, poised to grow: Barron's | Reuters
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Old 03-18-2008, 07:36 AM   #20
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i think the sp500 is going to rally around 10%
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