Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Perspective on US equities since March 2009
Old 04-07-2013, 10:58 AM   #1
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Lsbcal's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 5,686
Perspective on US equities since March 2009

It's been 4 good years so far despite all the hand wringing and gnashing of teeth. And yes, there have been some worrying down months along the way. Check out the blue line which shows progress since the SP500 low of March 2009:




Anyone want to venture their predictions for the future?
__________________

__________________
Lsbcal is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 04-07-2013, 01:06 PM   #2
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 589
Always fun looking at the chart, looks like the very low risk recovery period is coming to an end by next year, after a nice long 4 year period already, and from there the risk of another major dip progressively increases.
__________________

__________________
plex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-07-2013, 01:42 PM   #3
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
heeyy_joe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Madeira Beach Fl
Posts: 1,403
This market is in the fourth inning of a nine inning game.
__________________
_______________________________________________
"A man is a success if he gets up in the morning and goes to bed at night and in between does what he wants to do" --Bob Dylan.
heeyy_joe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-07-2013, 01:52 PM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 11,615
Quote:
Originally Posted by plex View Post
Always fun looking at the chart, looks like the very low risk recovery period is coming to an end by next year, after a nice long 4 year period already, and from there the risk of another major dip progressively increases.
No, no. Look at that blue line and at the dip 32 months into the current recovery. Now, put that low point at the origin of the chart and start yourself a new color--see, we're just 22 months into this new bull market!. It's fresh as a daisy with miles to go!

Charts are fun. Technical analysis is a hoot. "I see a classic head and shoulders with a teacup handle double whifferdill."
__________________
"Freedom begins when you tell Mrs. Grundy to go fly a kite." - R. Heinlein
samclem is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-07-2013, 02:17 PM   #5
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Ready's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Southern California
Posts: 1,826
I wish I could provide a meaningful answer here, but the reality is that nobody knows which way the market will head into the future. Everyone likes to guess, and no matter which way we guess (up or down), about 50% of us will be right, and 50% will be wrong. So you can go ahead and make your prediction, and know for certain that you have about a 50% likelihood of giving the right answer.
__________________
Ready is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-07-2013, 03:05 PM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Lsbcal's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 5,686
Quote:
Originally Posted by samclem View Post
No, no. Look at that blue line and at the dip 32 months into the current recovery. Now, put that low point at the origin of the chart and start yourself a new color--see, we're just 22 months into this new bull market!. It's fresh as a daisy with miles to go!
..."
The problem is there was no general business recession in that period.
__________________
Lsbcal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-07-2013, 03:08 PM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
clifp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,450
Since on average the market goes up by a pretty hefty amount, I always guess up.
Other than 2000- 2010 I've never been wrong over an extended period of time.
But on any given year, I've been wrong lots of times.
__________________
clifp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-07-2013, 03:40 PM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 11,615
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lsbcal View Post
The problem is there was no general business recession in that period.
So, the generation of a new line requires a recession, not just a "major low" (of some kind)?

We had recessions in '49, '53, '58, '60. I'm sure the market had "lows" in these periods--dips, double-dips, "bullish abandoned baby" or other high reliability candlestick formation, etc. Maybe they didn't meet the "major low" definition, so no new line?
__________________
"Freedom begins when you tell Mrs. Grundy to go fly a kite." - R. Heinlein
samclem is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-07-2013, 04:28 PM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Lsbcal's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 5,686
Quote:
Originally Posted by samclem View Post
So, the generation of a new line requires a recession, not just a "major low" (of some kind)?

We had recessions in '49, '53, '58, '60. I'm sure the market had "lows" in these periods--dips, double-dips, "bullish abandoned baby" or other high reliability candlestick formation, etc. Maybe they didn't meet the "major low" definition, so no new line?
Sam, I respect your cynical view . I hope you don't think I have some evil, ulterior motive. If I have any motive it would be to show that it can pay to be optimistic when taking investment risk. Unfortunately there are lumps of coal occasionally.

All of those lines on the chart were preceded by recessions. You're correct that I didn't include all the recessions. The chart would have gotten too cluttered to view.

Here is a chart that shows the whole picture -- one can see a few of those 1950's recession declines there. The splitting into decades is only for ease of comparison. There is no fundamental reason to start a line at the beginning of a decade.

__________________
Lsbcal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-07-2013, 04:36 PM   #10
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 11,615
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lsbcal View Post
Sam, I respect your cynical view .
Oh, I'm just being contrary. If you'd oblige with some serious technical analysis jargon this could be a lot more fun.

The charts are cool, thanks. It looks like we're doing better, for longer, than has sometimes been the case in the past.

I'd like to produce some charts based on astrology, but I'm just lacking in skill and motivation. "When the moon enters Sagittarius and the Chaikin Oscilator sends a positive signal regarding momentum, we've seen strong growth for the following 24 days, historically."
__________________

__________________
"Freedom begins when you tell Mrs. Grundy to go fly a kite." - R. Heinlein
samclem is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 01:35 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.