Originally Posted by haha
Buffet has become a cheerleader for the market and for bureaucracy. THE S&P is overvalued by his own stated favorite measure, the ratio of stock prices to GDP.
Exactly. Which is why I said, "who to believe?". Otar's work seems to validate the 4% rule, based on his sustainable withdrawal rates. Of course he uses market history ("afcasting
") in all his calculations. Although he has his own calculator, in some of his statements he appears to have no issue with FIRECALC, perhaps even endorses it.
Even after reading Pfau's papers and blog, I still have trouble with using valuations as a type of forecasting. Who knows? Perhaps I'm a diehard Boglehead. That, and since my WR is around 2.6%, I'm not going to worry about valuations or try to time the market in any way. FIRECALC shows at minimum I'll have 6 figures end of PF life. I agree with Otar the best defense against the uncertainties of retirement is to maintain withdrawals below the PF SWR.
The other defense is to just never stop working, and I think I'll pass on that.