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Re: "Pieces Of Eight, *Pieces Of Eight"
Old 11-18-2004, 05:59 PM   #21
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Re: "Pieces Of Eight, *Pieces Of Eight"

Thanks for that elucidation, Mikey. * I like directional bets too, but I tend to make the size of my bets proportional to my confidence in the directional change.

Some bets are no-brainers. * I figure real estate is close to a local peak now, so I've lightened my exposure. * Just as I did with stocks at the end of 1999. * But the direction of energy and gold is less clear to me, so I'm keeping my bets pretty small -- recently sold my energy fund, FWIW. * Likewise, it looks like stocks could go either way in the short-term, so I've got an agnostic exposure of around 25%.

I figure I'll know a no-brainer when I see one *
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Re: "Pieces Of Eight, *Pieces Of Eight"
Old 11-18-2004, 10:41 PM   #22
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Re: "Pieces Of Eight, *Pieces Of Eight"

"Pieces of Eight,Pieces of Eight" "got a couple of silver dabloons for ye"

mikey if i may,since historically the best time to be long stocks is october to may,wouldnt it be best to be long puts with strikes during the worste seasonal?like say sept-oct.Knowing that the fall rally is generally a self fulfilling move,perhaps buy them in say Jan at the earliest(QQQ oct '05 put).that way,hopefully you can squeeze some of the prem., out of em like a wet dishrag.Generally there is a attempt at a summer rally as well,so perhaps you could add to the puts in say early june.I would think that time decay would erode even further by this point.That being said,im not much on options cept for sellin the occasional covered call,which i dont think i did at all this year.Good luck to ya-ak
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Re: "Pieces Of Eight, *Pieces Of Eight"
Old 11-19-2004, 08:26 AM   #23
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Re: "Pieces Of Eight, *Pieces Of Eight"

Damn, who knew Greenspan would come out today and say the dollar must take a fall. * *Gold might be a good place to be after all....
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Re: "Pieces Of Eight, *Pieces Of Eight"
Old 11-21-2004, 10:29 AM   #24
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Re: "Pieces Of Eight, *Pieces Of Eight"

Ok, here's a simple way for all you gold bugs to hold that gold without burying it in your backyard.

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/fund...FREE&cm_ite=NA
Quote:
There's gold on Wall Street -- at least for ETF investors.

Traders awoke Thursday to find a new gold-backed security, StreetTracks Gold (GLD:NYSE - commentary - research), trading on the New York Stock Exchange under symbol GLD.

The exchange-traded fund is sponsored by a unit of the World Gold Council. It enables investors to participate in the gold bullion market, with each share representing one-tenth of an ounce of gold. Boston-based State Street (STT:NYSE - commentary - research) is the marketing agent behind the 2.3-million-share initial public offering.
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Re: "Pieces Of Eight,  Pieces Of Eight"
Old 11-21-2004, 01:12 PM   #25
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Re: "Pieces Of Eight,  Pieces Of Eight"

Interesting. But if each share is 1/10 ounce, how do they take their management fee? (And what is their fee?) Yahoo finance didn't have a profile, Reuters wanted me to register, and I can't find GLD on StreetTracks' site.
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Re: "Pieces Of Eight, *Pieces Of Eight"
Old 11-21-2004, 01:19 PM   #26
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Re: "Pieces Of Eight, *Pieces Of Eight"

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Interesting. But if each share is 1/10 ounce, how do they take their management fee? (And what is their fee?) Yahoo finance didn't have a profile, Reuters wanted me to register, and I can't find GLD on StreetTracks' site.
I believe the expense ratio is .4%. They get the money by selling a bit of gold as needed.

If you are interested in this, I think there are tax issues worth checking into also. According to news reports, it appears that holding GLD will be considered the same as holding physical gold for tax purposes. IRS classifies gold as a collectible, with disadvantageous tax rates.

Mikey
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Re: "Pieces Of Eight, *Pieces Of Eight"
Old 11-22-2004, 06:08 AM   #27
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Re: "Pieces Of Eight, *Pieces Of Eight"

Watch out for GLD-- there's a reason it took so long to get through SEC approval, and it turns out that this "gold ETF" doesn't actually own any gold!

http://news.goldseek.com/JamesTurk/1101100282.php , shamelessly pasted from the FundAlarm discussion at http://www.fundalarm.com/wwwboard/messages/103858.html . Jughead & Rono are possibly the only two rational goldbugs that I'm aware of. I've made a longboard or two from their PM musings but I've grown to avoid what seems to be "just" a currency arbitration.

If you think gold is worth buying, it looks like CEF or holding your own is still the best way.
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Re: "Pieces Of Eight, *Pieces Of Eight"
Old 02-22-2005, 11:50 AM   #28
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Re: "Pieces Of Eight, *Pieces Of Eight"

I have covered my spending needs for 2005 with the past 2 weeks performance of my gold allocation.

Of course that market is notoriously fickle, and it could take it back and then some over the next 2 weeks, or 2 days for that matter.

But I'm not selling. My feeling on these kinds of specualtions is that if you are going to take risk, you need to hold tight until it pays off in a worthwhile manner. Either that, or you strike out.

Mikey
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Re: "Pieces Of Eight, *Pieces Of Eight"
Old 02-22-2005, 12:09 PM   #29
 
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Re: "Pieces Of Eight, *Pieces Of Eight"

put the money generated from the gold investments in one hand and the money generated from equities in the other and see which one has more? gold has a small place in the asset classes but comes up short when compared to equities. too much risk & too little reward and I do not recommend chasing the "hot" returns. gold is a "doggy" long-term investment and extremely unpredictable. peanuts on the other hand.....
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Re: "Pieces Of Eight, *Pieces Of Eight"
Old 02-22-2005, 12:12 PM   #30
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Re: "Pieces Of Eight, *Pieces Of Eight"

Thanks, Jimmie.

Mikey
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Re: "Pieces Of Eight, *Pieces Of Eight"
Old 02-22-2005, 01:10 PM   #31
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Re: "Pieces Of Eight, *Pieces Of Eight"

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I have covered my spending needs for 2005 with the past 2 weeks performance of my gold allocation.

Of course that market is notoriously fickle, and it could take it back and then some over the next 2 weeks, or 2 days for that matter.

But I'm not selling. My feeling on these kinds of specualtions is that if you are going to take risk, you need to hold tight until it pays off in a worthwhile manner. Either that, or you strike out.
So, if your investment generates a year's income in two weeks, it still hasn't paid off in a worthwhile manner? Just a wild guess here, Mikey, but maybe your expectations are too high
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Re: "Pieces Of Eight, *Pieces Of Eight"
Old 02-22-2005, 02:31 PM   #32
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Re: "Pieces Of Eight, *Pieces Of Eight"

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So, if your investment generates a year's income in two weeks, it still hasn't paid off in a worthwhile manner? * *Just a wild guess here, Mikey, but maybe your expectations are too high
You may well be right Wab. It's just that I have left so much money on the table over the years. I feel that I would like to let this one ride. POG is still under its median real price going back to when it was de-controlled. I firmly believe in excess.

Mikey
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Re: "Pieces Of Eight, *Pieces Of Eight"
Old 02-25-2005, 07:26 AM   #33
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Re: "Pieces Of Eight, *Pieces Of Eight"

"Tanto tienes, tanto vales"-- instead of that, how 'bout using some of your intellectual trader's skills to set an appropriate sell stop?
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Re: "Pieces Of Eight,  Pieces Of Eight"
Old 02-28-2005, 05:24 PM   #34
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Re: "Pieces Of Eight,  Pieces Of Eight"

Mikey,
I used to hear this advice from wall street types:

"Bulls make money, Bears make money, Pigs get slaughtered".

(Now if mikey could just figure out the difference between being 'bullish on gold' and being a pig looking to make a few more years worth of spending money with his gold investment...)

Maybe lots of us have heard this advice from retail brokers (yeah we all have some skeletons in our closets from our pre-enlightenment days) I think it is usually trotted out when somebody has a winning position and the broker is trying to get you to sell it to trade into something else earning him some nice commissions... wait a second, who is the pig?
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Re: "Pieces Of Eight, *Pieces Of Eight"
Old 02-28-2005, 05:46 PM   #35
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Re: "Pieces Of Eight, *Pieces Of Eight"

Nords, glad to see that somebody reads my sigs!

A serious answer to the stop idea is that gold seems to make abrupt moves, then reverses. I am not sure that a reasonable stop can be made.

Anyway, sometimes it really is true, no pain, no gain.

My Dad and my uncle both bought some old RJ Reynolds stock in the 50s. My Dad got a good gain, decided that was enough and sold out. My uncle declared that Reynolds was going to make him rich. He was truly an ER before his time. He never had a job. He had a bunch of peckerwood businesses, most of which seemed largely to function as places to meet women. But he died with over $5 mil, much of it in RJR stock! And he would be richer now, had not a a bolt of lightning (literally) come out of the sky and put out his lights a few years ago.

I am not trying *to compare tobacco to gold. Given decent valuation tobacco is the king of cash flow. But I think it would be premature to set the hook on gold just now. Right or wrong, Mikey will let-it-ride

However, I appreciate your concern. And that is not sarcasm.

Mikey
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