John Galt III
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
- Joined
- Oct 19, 2008
- Messages
- 2,799
I really wanted vote in the 'no stocks' circle, but I do have about 10% in stocks. All else is CD's, bond funds, cash, and stable value funds.
+1 Same here.Like others have mentioned, I feel like I have "won the game" in that pension + SS and occasionally spending a very small amount of RMDs covers our current needs quite nicely. We have liability matched our projected future needs for 20 years or so with fixed income. But stuff happens and I'm not so sanguine that future needs won't change. So we still keep a 40-45% equity allocation and may raise that to 50% down the road. So, yes we kinda, sorta feel like we've won. But not so much that we're all fixed income. Therefore, NO on the poll.
Sorry. I could say that I won the game 35 years ago on my 32nd birthday (trust fund) but I just don't buy the whole 'won the game' framework. Even the phrase grates me. (yes, I've been out drinking in the hot tub just now, so forgiveness, please)
marko said:Maybe it's semantics but I really think it's a bad way to put it and maybe a little too self-congratulatory. I really don't think you can claim victory until you and your spouse are both six feet under.
Looking out 20 or 30 years there are just too many variables and things that can go wrong to just sit back and let things take care of themselves with bonds and CDs as noted within the context of the OP.....
We feel like we won the game, and we lowered our equity exposure considerably upon retiring after taking considerable risk while working.
But we still stay around 50/50 to 60/40. I see it as evenly hedging my bets.
We have a big war chest of cash available for short term needs. Our income exceeds our expenses. We should be able to survive a long downturn (knock on wood). So I feel like we have a large personal financial safety cushion and am comfortable with moderate equity exposure.
Our retirement assets well exceed 20x to 25x annual expenses.
Not sure how to respond since I put everything into Bitcoin.
Ok, that is pretty funny in a stereotype way of trust fund kids..
While I'm sure there a some ironclads I worry about folks who might be lulled into a false complacency ("I have one milllllion dollars! I'm all set!")
Over the past decade there were a lot of football teams who knew they 'won the game' only to have Tom Brady crush them with 3 touchdowns in the last 2 minutes.
The longer your horizon but more risk you have to unseen and unanticipated events/changes that may come. IMO, it's nice to have a seat belt.
YMMV
If a retiree has a $1B portfolio and spends $50K a year they are all set, barring perhaps an asteroid type event where money is worthless, $1M and $50K spending at 40 maybe not. I don't think the $1B guy has to wait until he is dead to know he isn't going to run out of money.
Agree, unless the $1m guy is generating decent returns on his investments. For example, $1M generating 10-15% is totally doable, especially if he/she can live in a place that keeps expenses down. I think this way, retiring on $1m at 40 is totally doable.
It is totally doable, but he is the kind that won't really know if he had enough until after he dies.
Hmmm, not sure I totally agree but understand where you're coming from.
If the $1M guy knows he's making say 10% from regular income investments (so $100k per year) and he's living somewhere that he can comfortably live on say $25k per year, then he's pretty set in my eyes. Beating inflation AND putting money in the bank and increasing investments each year!
I know people that are living in a similar situation now.
If a retiree has a $1B portfolio in TIPS and CDs and spends $50K a year they are all set, barring perhaps an asteroid type event where money is worthless.
Okay, then change the $1M to $500K if you want a different end point for the continuum where retirement savings might / might not be enough. That is the end where you won't know if you had enough until after you die, not the $1B end.
True, and 500k would be pushing it. 1m though I think is totally doable for retirement.
Just my 2c
And probably 70% of retired folks have no where near $500K saved up. But this board is different from that demographic.
Yeah, but we're talking about early retirement here. So people with no pension. I would think many retired people old enough for a pension probably won't have 500k saved. But if you retire early, like age 40 which was discussed earlier, then 500k probably won't cut it unless you can live really frugally in some other country.
I think there are a quite a few of us who retired early with a pension from the military. Off the top of my head, Nords, Flyboy, myself and a few others I know of who's names have escaped me. Some of us are even blessed to have married a SO with a retirement pension as well. (Nords and myself. We are lucky SOBs) I would even say those early retirees with pensions are close to that 500K net worth (if not considerably more). Granted the preponderance of my net worth is in my primary residence and rental property but still considered net worth according to accounting rules. I do agree with you that having only a 500K net worth without a pension would be challenging to retire on.
I stand corrected, sorry. Didn't think about the early retirees with pensions
What you say makes a lot of sense
The 4% WR works when the initial budget increases at the same rate as CPI. My point is, in order to enjoy the constantly improving standard of living, we may need a bit more spending above inflation. In real life this is difficult to test, because 1) we don’t know the additional cost of that SoL improvement, and 2) we are constantly adjusting our spending choices in response to price changes and new spending.It's not clear to me why you've come to this conclusion. It's not like there haven't been technological advances in the past, and yet 4% WR has worked.