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View Poll Results: Are you in the "Won The Game" Crowd with reference to investing?
Yes! No Stocks or Stock Mutual funds or ETFs for Us! We do not need or want them. 24 8.14%
No, We still have Stocks and Stock Funds (for Whatever Reason) 271 91.86%
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Old 05-03-2019, 04:07 PM   #121
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One more thing. It is all about risk and sleeping at night. If you don't need to take on more risk (stocks) then why take the risk. If you have to take unnecessary risk you probably retired too early.
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Old 05-03-2019, 04:40 PM   #122
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There is always some level of risk to investing.

I am comfortable with apartment complexes. We did really well with rentals for years. But during the recession, we lost all our tenants and we still had a mortgage of service. That got ugly for us.

Now as we are going back into rentals, we are doing it without the mortgage. So if another recession hits, at least it will not be a mortgage company after us, this time.
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Old 05-03-2019, 06:48 PM   #123
Confused about dryer sheets
 
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98% in short-term cds paying average 2.5%. Won the game, and while I have the ability to take risk by owning stocks, do not have the need nor the desire to assume that risk.. would rather have return 'of' principal, rather than return 'on' principal.
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Old 05-03-2019, 06:52 PM   #124
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I guess it comes down to how much money is enough. If I have more than enough now with virtually no risk, why stay in the risk game. 15/85 is good enough for me. I will still be buried the same way- no money in my pockets
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Old 05-03-2019, 09:29 PM   #125
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We've been retired for ten years up have always lived below our means. This continues in retirement. RMDs and SS gives a comfortable life.

Until four years into retirement, our AA was 95/5. Now 16% of our portfolio is in TREA and the remainder is 55/45 (with a big part of the 45 in TIAA TRAD stable value). We have 10 years of expected RMDs outside the conventional stock/bond metric.

I feel like we have won in the sense that we have money to live on that is not subject to the market. However, our dollar value at risk in equities has remained the same for the last ten years.

I can sleep well with that and expect growth in our estate for the kids.
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Old 05-03-2019, 10:56 PM   #126
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It won't be clear if I truly won the game until both DW and I are dead. Right now our pensions cover our expenses and SS is mad money, but we are keeping our powder dry for end of life expenses. That powder includes 60% stocks to cover inflation.
Ditto, except we are 100% stock equities. (Just figure we still have the house to sell if it came to it at end-of-life)
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Old 05-04-2019, 09:42 AM   #127
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I’ve WON the Game.

I’m 30% invested in Equities for the purpose of giving my portfolio a little oomph!

Adjusted pension inclusive of blended Social Security covers my annual projected expenses with ease. Minimal side hustle allows me to add to my Roth, house is paid off, Health insurance is covered via State Health Plan - so anything in my portfolio is pure discretionary. Thus, it really wouldn’t matter if the portfolio was all fixed income or all equities.

Thankfully, RMDs don’t start for another 11 1/2 years.

I
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Old 05-04-2019, 10:28 AM   #128
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Not certain why these would be mutually exclusive.
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Old 05-04-2019, 11:28 AM   #129
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I really can't vote since neither option fits me. I feel I've won the game financially but I still buy and sell equities. Bucket #1 has about 2m all in fixed income which I consider my base investments and it's enough to say I've won the game. Bucket #2 is for playing the market. If bucket 2 ever runs dry (very unlikely) I'll just keep bucket #1 invested in fixed income and sit back. If bucket #1 ever runs dry (extremely unlikely unless we turn into another Venezuela) I still have my zero debt physical assets and SS to live off of. (Assuming SS would still exit in a Venezuela like state)


So, I feel I've won the game anyway I look at it, especially now that I'm in my late 60's.
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Old 05-04-2019, 11:29 AM   #130
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If you have more money than you can possibly spend down even with no growth, I suppose what you have won is the ability to set your AA wherever you feel good about it without worry of busting your retirement. When people ask about the “optimal” AA, it is usually in terms of the allocation that is least likely to fail, not necessarily the one that will, on average, bring the highest returns. So if someone has more than they can ever spend, any allocation is unlikely to fail. They can be as aggressive or as conservative as makes them sleep better.
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Old 05-04-2019, 02:26 PM   #131
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Game over. According t the rules of simple arithmetic, our income stream and our 50/50 investment portfolio will be ample in order to make it to the end in grand style.
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Old 05-04-2019, 05:38 PM   #132
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People are feeling really invincible right now because of the stock market the last 10 years.That will change soon enough.
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Old 05-04-2019, 06:04 PM   #133
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Looking at a lot of efficient frontier curves, even by decade, the sweet spot for lower volatility AND higher returns than 100% bonds is usually 20 to 30% stocks, annual rebalancing. So I’ve never been motivated to go 100% fixed income.
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Old 05-04-2019, 06:08 PM   #134
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People are feeling really invincible right now because of the stock market the last 10 years.That will change soon enough.
A lot of people here survived 2008-2009. Some of us even retired into the face of the 2000-2002 big bad bear and got a double whammy in the same decade.

Maybe some memories are short, but not so much on this forum. You still hear people here worry about 70s/80s type inflation!
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Old 05-05-2019, 10:07 AM   #135
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We couldn’t keep our current spending level if we engaged in zero paid work. However, we could win that game if we moved to an apartment or lower cost of living area or country, so I guess my answer is “We could choose to win the game”?

Many comments above make me wonder about our true AA. Our stock and bond portfolio is 50/50 and globally diversified. However, when I consider our home equity and our future SS, maybe our entire portfolio is a lot more conservative than I realize. Hmmmm.
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Old 05-05-2019, 10:33 AM   #136
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1920 smug German to another 1920 German: "I think we have won the game, I am 100% into German bonds"
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Old 05-05-2019, 10:36 AM   #137
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Many comments above make me wonder about our true AA. Our stock and bond portfolio is 50/50 and globally diversified. However, when I consider our home equity and our future SS, maybe our entire portfolio is a lot more conservative than I realize. Hmmmm.
Yes, the concept of a "phantom portfolio" (as Bob Brinker used to describe it) can be important. Our current AA is 52/38/10 or so, typical for many early 70's retired folks. But, our routine, day-to-day expenses are substantially covered by pensions and SS so when I rethink our current AA, I realize it's pretty darn conservative.

If (or when) we experience a significant equity market correction, I'm looking at increasing equities to something in the 60% range by decreasing cash. We can tolerate the short term increase in portfolio value variability this might cause and it would be nice to be able to add to our grandson's special needs trust. Probably wouldn't do this if pensions and SS covered only a small part of our annual expenses.
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Old 05-05-2019, 10:38 AM   #138
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Quote:
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A lot of people here survived 2008-2009. Some of us even retired into the face of the 2000-2002 big bad bear and got a double whammy in the same decade.

Maybe some memories are short, but not so much on this forum. You still hear people here worry about 70s/80s type inflation!
My parents hammered into me the experiences of the Great Depression.
Then I retired in 2001 and survived 2008-2009, it set me back a bit, but I survived.
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Old 05-05-2019, 10:46 AM   #139
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One more thing. It is all about risk and sleeping at night. If you don't need to take on more risk (stocks) then why take the risk. If you have to take unnecessary risk you probably retired too early.
You need to do what you need to do in order to feel comfortable with your personal finances. I'm not suggesting any other path for you. But, just to enhance your own personal understanding of investing, you might want to look into the difference between "risk" and "variability."

For many FIRE situations, historical numbers suggest that a prudent equity allocation actually reduces risk (the chance of running out of money or of needing to reduce spending in uncomfortable ways). However, including an equity allocation generally results in more portfolio value variability, a different thing than increasing risk.

But again, if you can't become comfortable with that concept or if your particular financial situation wouldn't tolerate some portfolio value dips over the short run, stick with your plan and sleep at night.
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Old 05-05-2019, 10:57 AM   #140
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We won the game, well if our horse does not get disqualified. However, we do not fit either choice. We have stocks because in the long term our kids are going t get them.
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