Join Early Retirement Today
View Poll Results: FIREcalc vs. Reality
I'm on FIRE! 7 15.56%
I'm cautiously optimistic. 16 35.56%
I'm falling and I can't get up. 0 0%
It's too soon to tell. 22 48.89%
Voters: 45. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Poll:FIREcalc real world feedback
Old 12-20-2014, 01:18 PM   #1
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Katy
Posts: 78
Poll:FIREcalc real world feedback

And though (I'm sure) it's been said, many times, many ways (trying to get in the Christmas spirit on a cloudy Texas day...a lot like back home, but no snow)...

How's the FIREcalc working out? Do you find yourself heading to the top of the range or not so much? Have you been "unemployed the good way" long enough to judge or are you so recent that the great market returns since 2009 have skewed your chart...that's SKEWED...the other may be coming all too soon.
Texconsin is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 12-20-2014, 01:33 PM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 26,806
I don't understand the question.

FIRECalc vs reality?

FIRECalc simply reports what has happened in the past. It is reality.

-ERD50
ERD50 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2014, 02:18 PM   #3
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Car-Guy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Texas
Posts: 10,836
I think I generally understand what you are asking about FIREcal... But, a couple of clarifying questions.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Texconsin View Post
Have you been "unemployed the good way"
Sorry, but what does this mean? (unemployed the good way)?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Texconsin View Post
the other may be coming all too soon.
I don't understand what you are trying to say here either.
Car-Guy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2014, 02:48 PM   #4
Moderator
rodi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: San Diego
Posts: 14,140
I think Texconsin is asking if Firecalc is more optimistic than recent returns or less optimistic.

But as ERD50 points out - firecalc is based on historical returns... so it's reality based.

No one can predict the future - but we can use worst case past returns to check our plans... and we can add in any extra fudge factors we want to.... or not...
__________________
Retired June 2014. No longer an enginerd - now I'm just a nerd.
micro pensions 6%, rental income 20%
rodi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2014, 02:55 PM   #5
Administrator
Gumby's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 22,923
Quote:
Originally Posted by rodi View Post
No one can predict the future.
Sure they can, it's just that they'll almost certainly be wrong.
__________________
Living an analog life in the Digital Age.
Gumby is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2014, 03:01 PM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,968
Okie Dokie - FireCalc has held up fair to middling. It's Reality that won't cooperate.

21 years - you might say preceding the posting of FireCalc some and before reading about 4%.

Unemployed at age 49, making the mental shift to ER, Katrina, moving 1000 miles inland(on a big hill), death of a girlfriend after 29 yrs, remarriage to widow and moving again to 'big city' sort of relative to the burbs and learning to spend up with FireCalc.

Several times a year run FireCalc, i-ORP, and the Vanguard Retirement Nest Egg Calculator.

Handgrenade wise I'm(we) are usually in the ballpark but track to the cheap side of expenses (ie tend to actually underrun input or projection).

heh heh heh - 2007-2010 was an interesting ride but did the Boglehead 'Stay The Course.' Not without some grippiness at times though.
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2014, 03:24 PM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
I believe the question is "Have your "real" results matched what Firecalc "predicted?"


Sent from my iCouch using Early Retirement Forum
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire

...not doing anything of true substance...
HFWR is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2014, 04:21 PM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
youbet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Chicago
Posts: 13,148
Quote:
Originally Posted by HFWR View Post
I believe the question is "Have your "real" results matched what Firecalc "predicted?"


Sent from my iCouch using Early Retirement Forum
Yes, my actual results after 9 years of FIRE fall within the extremely broad range of FireCalc's historical testing results.

I recall at the beginning noting that FireCalc's output data and graph indicated that during my first decade I could experience huge losses and take a wild ride down. Or, I could experience huge gains and have more than I ever thought was possible. Or I could be somewhere inbetween. Sure enough, I'm somewhere inbetween. FireCalc was right on.
__________________
"I wasn't born blue blood. I was born blue-collar." John Wort Hannam
youbet is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2014, 04:26 PM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
youbet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Chicago
Posts: 13,148
Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
I don't understand the question.

FIRECalc vs reality?

FIRECalc simply reports what has happened in the past. It is reality.

-ERD50
You understand!
__________________
"I wasn't born blue blood. I was born blue-collar." John Wort Hannam
youbet is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2014, 04:38 PM   #10
Administrator
Alan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: N. Yorkshire
Posts: 34,021
Quote:
Originally Posted by HFWR View Post
I believe the question is "Have your "real" results matched what Firecalc "predicted?"


Sent from my iCouch using Early Retirement Forum
The problem is the word "predicted" because Firecalc is not a forecaster, it is a "backcaster", and all of its squiggly lines have start and end dates in the past, none in the future, no attempt at prediction.

I used Firecalc, Fidelity RIP, and the Financial Engines retirement planners in the run up to my decision to ER. 2 of those tools do use statistical calculations to predict future returns. (Monty Carlo simulations)
__________________
Retired in Jan, 2010 at 55, moved to England in May 2016
Enough private pension and SS income to cover all needs
Alan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2014, 09:18 PM   #11
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
Well, I was attempting to restate the OP as I understood it, but nevertheless I think users of FIRECalc, to varying degrees, use it to infer, predict, or make a SWAG as to how "safe" there portfolio is...


Sent from my iCouch using Early Retirement Forum
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire

...not doing anything of true substance...
HFWR is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-21-2014, 10:33 PM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,968
Quote:
Originally Posted by HFWR View Post
Well, I was attempting to restate the OP as I understood it, but nevertheless I think users of FIRECalc, to varying degrees, use it to infer, predict, or make a SWAG as to how "safe" there portfolio is...


Sent from my iCouch using Early Retirement Forum
Exactly.

heh heh heh -
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-22-2014, 10:34 AM   #13
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Senator's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Williston, FL
Posts: 3,925
I am not retired, but I have been doing some 'playing around' with FireCalc.

I think one of Firecalc's downsides, especially for longer retirement periods, is its use of real data. If you want a 40-year horizon, Firecalc does not look at years past 1974. There are some pretty turbulent years since then. I always want to know would I do OK 'no matter what'.

I took my investment account and divided by 4. Left the income and expenses as-is. And then calculated for only 10 years. And I also did a few other variations of this, 5 years, 20 years, etc.

I am not sure if this help anything, just thought I would chime in and add it.
__________________
FIRE no later than 7/5/2016 at 56 (done), securing '16 401K match (done), getting '15 401K match (done), LTI Bonus (done), Perf bonus (done), maxing out 401K (done), picking up 1,000 hours to get another year of pension (done), July 1st benefits (vacation day, healthcare) (done), July 4th holiday. 0 days left. (done) OFFICIALLY RETIRED 7/5/2016!!
Senator is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-22-2014, 10:41 AM   #14
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator View Post
If you want a 40-year horizon, Firecalc does not look at years past 1974.
This isn't accurate. You either don't understand how FIRECalc works or need to work on improving your communication skills.
__________________
Numbers is hard
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-22-2014, 10:44 AM   #15
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,000
Almost 10 years into retirement and we're above the starting point on the FIRECalc scattergraph. So far, so good...
__________________
Numbers is hard
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-22-2014, 10:50 AM   #16
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Katy
Posts: 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by Car-Guy View Post
I think I generally understand what you are asking about FIREcal... But, a couple of clarifying questions.

Sorry, but what does this mean? (unemployed the good way)?


I don't understand what you are trying to say here either.
Unemployed the good way = retirement.

The other thing that might be coming all too soon, instead of skewed, is screwed.

I'll try not to try to be funny anymore.
Texconsin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-22-2014, 10:56 AM   #17
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Senator's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Williston, FL
Posts: 3,925
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
This isn't accurate. You either don't understand how FIRECalc works or need to work on improving your communication skills.
The way I understand it, using the total market option, Firecalc looks at data from 1871. It runs 40 years from 1871, then starts again at 1872 for 40 years, etc. Since there are no 40 year periods after 1975, it cannot evaluate years after 1975.

UPDATE: It cannot evaluate years emulating as if you started/FIRED after 1975.

"FIRECalc looked at the 104 possible 40 year periods in the available data"


Using the "Mixed Portfolio", based on performance since 1927, It can only look at 39 cycles.
"FIRECalc looked at the 39 possible 40 year periods". I am not sure why only 39, rather than 48, but that's what it says.

Please enlighten me if I am not understanding FireCalc's methodology.
__________________
FIRE no later than 7/5/2016 at 56 (done), securing '16 401K match (done), getting '15 401K match (done), LTI Bonus (done), Perf bonus (done), maxing out 401K (done), picking up 1,000 hours to get another year of pension (done), July 1st benefits (vacation day, healthcare) (done), July 4th holiday. 0 days left. (done) OFFICIALLY RETIRED 7/5/2016!!
Senator is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-22-2014, 10:57 AM   #18
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Katy
Posts: 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan View Post
The problem is the word "predicted" because Firecalc is not a forecaster, it is a "backcaster", and all of its squiggly lines have start and end dates in the past, none in the future, no attempt at prediction.

I used Firecalc, Fidelity RIP, and the Financial Engines retirement planners in the run up to my decision to ER. 2 of those tools do use statistical calculations to predict future returns. (Monty Carlo simulations)
I'd like to be able to mouse-point at a few of the "squigglies" to see which years (in my conservative choice of 20 until R.I.P.) are which. Likely only the outliers would be possible, as they bunch too much at the norms. But it's the outliers I'd like to identify. Just how DO I get to Boardwalk (or Mediterranean Avenue)?
Texconsin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-22-2014, 11:10 AM   #19
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator View Post
Please enlighten me if I am not understanding FireCalc's methodology.
Since you want to look at 40 year periods, FIRECalc would would begin with the period 1871-1911, then 1872-1912, 1873-1913, and subsequent periods all the way up to and including the 40 year period ending in 2013 (1973-2013), including the years of 1974 through 2013 in the appropriate sequences.

It is accurate to say FIRECalc looks at no 40 year periods "beginning 1974 or later" as there aren't 40 years of data after 1973. That is until FIRECalc gets updated next year with 2014 data...
__________________
Numbers is hard
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-22-2014, 11:18 AM   #20
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Texconsin View Post

I'll try not to try to be funny anymore.
I think this may be good as I'm having difficulty understanding what you are saying/asking on this and other threads.
__________________
Numbers is hard
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Real World FIRE Income Poll, Average Monthly Draw ShokWaveRider FIRE and Money 14 09-12-2006 10:50 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 12:47 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.