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View Poll Results: How low will it go
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10% - We are pretty much done, buy buy buy.
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69 |
28.75% |
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20% - Looks like it will be a bit longer to find a bottom.
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133 |
55.42% |
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30% - More like a real bear market.
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24 |
10.00% |
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40% - A bad bear market.
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7 |
2.92% |
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50% - A really bad bear market.
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2 |
0.83% |
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>50% - Stock up on gold, guns and ammo, the end is near.
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5 |
2.08% |
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02-06-2018, 02:27 PM
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#41
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pacific latitude 20/49
Posts: 7,677
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by Danmar
?.Anyway, I would guess it’s somewhere around 10-25% but I only know what I read in the newspaper.
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Well the newspaper is a poor source but I suppose the range you picked is wide enough to capture it!
I think the point of picking a future point is to learn whether you are poor at it or awful! If you were good, then you could make better use of your time than posting here.
__________________
For the fun of it...Keith
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02-06-2018, 02:35 PM
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#42
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Tampa Bay Area
Posts: 1,866
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Need an option for "Ask me again in 3 months time".
__________________
"For the time being no discipline brings joy, but seems grievous and painful; but afterwards it yields a peaceable fruit of righteousness to those who have been trained by it." ~
Hebrews 12:11
ER'd in June 2015 at age 52. Initial WR 3%. 50/40/10 (Equity/Bond/Short Term) AA.
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02-06-2018, 02:38 PM
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#43
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 774
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More down coming. Buying in the 2400-2500 S&P.
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02-06-2018, 02:56 PM
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#44
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 2,984
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No idea at all what might happen. But since I've only got $431 cash available to trade in my brokerage account it doesn't matter. It looks like the big chunk of cash I've dumped into CD ladders might keep me out of trouble. Also I still own the same number of equity shares so there should be some of those useless dividends coming in as well.
A bigger question is whether or not the dolphin will be biting tomorrow.
__________________
Took SS at 62 and hope I live long enough to regret the decision.
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02-06-2018, 03:00 PM
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#45
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,021
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__________________
Numbers is hard
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02-06-2018, 04:03 PM
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#46
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Alberta/Ontario/ Arizona
Posts: 3,393
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kcowan
I think the point of picking a future point is to learn whether you are poor at it or awful! If you were good, then you could make better use of your time than posting here.
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Doubt anyone is very good at it. Plenty of opinions though. Most of the talking heads talk about “higher volatity” before things “settle down”. That part is pretty obvious.
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02-07-2018, 04:40 AM
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#47
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Michigan
Posts: 4,996
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Quote:
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More down coming. Buying in the 2400-2500 S&P.
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And what will you do if we never get there?
__________________
"The mountains are calling, and I must go." John Muir
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02-07-2018, 05:04 AM
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#48
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 774
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We are living in the age of turbulence as Dr Greenspan calls it. All opinions have a limited shelf life. There will always be delays & schedule changes. Everyone pays what they feel comfortable paying.
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02-07-2018, 05:16 AM
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#49
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 774
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I agree with Carl Icahn. Passive investing may be dangerous. Too much of a good thing.
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02-07-2018, 08:42 AM
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#50
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Meadbh
The markets are missing Janet Yellen.
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She does not miss the market. She's retired.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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02-07-2018, 03:28 PM
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#51
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 2,984
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kcowan
Well the newspaper is a poor source but I suppose the range you picked is wide enough to capture it!
I think the point of picking a future point is to learn whether you are poor at it or awful! If you were good, then you could make better use of your time than posting here.
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Absolutely. I doubt Warren B/ spends any time here. Likewise as a plodder I can find no better use of my time. It keeps me out of trouble.
__________________
Took SS at 62 and hope I live long enough to regret the decision.
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02-08-2018, 02:39 PM
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#52
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: San Diego
Posts: 880
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Well, looks like the S&P500 closed at 2581 today, that is 10% down from its peak. I am still sticking with my guess of 30% down, hope I am wrong, but looks like a full blown panic now.
__________________
Merrily, merrily, merrily, merrily,
Life is but a dream.
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02-08-2018, 04:09 PM
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#53
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Dryer sheet aficionado
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 31
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I don't know much about anything but I'll say a 20% correction/reversion to the mean. We all kind of knew this was coming, right? I mean we know the markets don't just go up, right?
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02-08-2018, 05:13 PM
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#54
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Moderator
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 13,908
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I would also guess around 15, but I think it will be quite turbulent around there for some time (2-3 weeks? total guess). So we might go a bit lower some days, and look like a bit higher others.
We have shed back to about November of 2017 ish, so still well in the silly area. And I was just looking at numbers the other day seeing we'd more than covered our SWD budget for this year on january's gains alone... poof!
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02-08-2018, 08:28 PM
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#55
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gone traveling
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 3,375
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What's the starting point? Now or the past high? What are you talking - Dow/S&P/Russell?NASDAQ/temperature?
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02-08-2018, 11:05 PM
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#56
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Toronto
Posts: 3,321
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It would be DJIA and/or S&P 500 off the record high by my reckoning.
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02-09-2018, 05:34 AM
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#57
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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That's how they count to say the market is in a correction (10%), or in bear country (20%).
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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02-09-2018, 05:35 AM
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#58
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 75
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaliforniaMan
Just for fun, how low will the current decline go before reaching the bottom. ......
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Don't panic. I've thought it over and the answer is definitely 42.
Now ... what was the question? 
*
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02-09-2018, 05:44 AM
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#59
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 11,327
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I'm still guessing 10-15%. People are freaked out by the numbers (Dow drops a record -1000+ twice) and don't pay attention to the percentages so they think we have already had a big crash. We should get a few more panic sellers jumping in now but since nothing fundamental has imploded institutional buyers will probably bounce back. Or not. 
__________________
Idleness is fatal only to the mediocre -- Albert Camus
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02-09-2018, 07:14 AM
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#60
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 1,192
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I voted 20%, but really feel 12-15% depending on index.. ie just before the machines do something super crazy. Hoping it hangs out for a few days at this lower level so its a stable bottom.
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