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View Poll Results: What do you see in the image?
Wow, lots of great returns 8 21.05%
No periods below zero longer than 20 years 13 34.21%
Ugh, several periods with poor long-term returns 5 13.16%
A pretty flower 12 31.58%
Voters: 38. You may not vote on this poll

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Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
Old 02-23-2007, 07:36 PM   #1
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Poll: Investor Inkblot Test

[img width=750 height=437]http://img292.imageshack.us/img292/230/dispersionls5.jpg[/img]

Edit: image borrowed from Dimson's latest report on global returns: pdf link
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
Old 02-23-2007, 07:42 PM   #2
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test

Actually, what I see is reversion to the mean.
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
Old 02-23-2007, 08:01 PM   #3
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test

Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
Actually, what I see is reversion to the mean.
Ditto.
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
Old 02-23-2007, 08:18 PM   #4
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test

I see someone with too much time on their hands...
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
Old 02-23-2007, 08:24 PM   #5
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test

Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
Actually, what I see is reversion to the mean.
Me too.
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
Old 02-23-2007, 08:45 PM   #6
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test

I see that it takes >30 years to get the bottom of the lowest decile above the TIPs guaranteed return.

Ha
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
Old 02-24-2007, 12:16 AM   #7
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test

Quote:
Originally Posted by HaHa
I see that it takes >30 years to get the bottom of the lowest decile above the TIPs guaranteed return.
It's actually more like 40 years, but who's counting?

That was the first thing I looked at, which makes me a bear I think. But the long-term downside risk is small, and I think this chart makes a great case for going with 100% stocks during accumulation.

Interesting tidbits from the report: forward-looking risk premium is estimated at 3-3.5%; VIX is at an all-time low, so portfolio protection is cheap, but back-testing portfolio protection didn't look too good.

BTW, the picture is of UK return dispersion.
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
Old 02-24-2007, 11:14 AM   #8
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test

A penis.
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
Old 02-24-2007, 12:28 PM   #9
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test

Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl
A penis.
Sometimes, a cigar is just a cigar.
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
Old 02-24-2007, 12:39 PM   #10
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test

Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl
A penis.
if that is what you think one is suppose to look like, than mrs. T-Al, must be really sore...
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
Old 02-24-2007, 01:02 PM   #11
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test

Quote:
Originally Posted by Maddy the Turbo Beagle
if that is what you think one is suppose to look like, than mrs. T-Al, must be really sore...
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
Old 02-24-2007, 01:06 PM   #12
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test

Somewhat akin to a boar's. I'd borrow one to try for a few weekends if it were possible. Some curious lady would likely assent.

Ha
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
Old 02-24-2007, 01:33 PM   #13
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test

Quote:
Originally Posted by HaHa
Somewhat akin to a boar's. I'd borrow one to try for a few weekends if it were possible. Some curious lady would likely assent.

Ha
You made me google boar's penis.

I need to get up off this couch!
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
Old 02-24-2007, 02:13 PM   #14
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test

Quote:
Originally Posted by HaHa
I see that it takes >30 years to get the bottom of the lowest decile above the TIPs guaranteed return.

Ha
You could also say ~99% of the time your equity returns will be better then TIPs over 30 years.

It looks like the top of the bottom quartile crosses somewhere around 2% after 10-years. So you could also say that 75% of the time equities do better than TIPs after 10-years.

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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
Old 02-24-2007, 02:51 PM   #15
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test

Quote:
Originally Posted by 3 Yrs to Go
You could also say ~99% of the time your equity returns will be better then TIPs over 30 years.

It looks like the top of the bottom quartile crosses somewhere around 2% after 10-years. So you could also say that 75% of the time equities do better than TIPs after 10-years.
You are right; that's why it is a Rorschach Test.

Ha
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