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View Poll Results: What do you see in the image?
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Wow, lots of great returns
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8 |
21.05% |
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No periods below zero longer than 20 years
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13 |
34.21% |
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Ugh, several periods with poor long-term returns
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5 |
13.16% |
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A pretty flower
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12 |
31.58% |
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Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
02-23-2007, 06:36 PM
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#1
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 4,459
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Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
[img width=750 height=437]http://img292.imageshack.us/img292/230/dispersionls5.jpg[/img]
Edit: image borrowed from Dimson's latest report on global returns: pdf link
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
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02-23-2007, 06:42 PM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
Actually, what I see is reversion to the mean.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
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02-23-2007, 07:01 PM
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#3
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 163
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
 Quote:
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Originally Posted by ziggy29
Actually, what I see is reversion to the mean.
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Ditto.
__________________
The way I see it, you got two choices. You either gotta get busy livin'...or get busy dyin'.
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
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02-23-2007, 07:18 PM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
I see someone with too much time on their hands...
__________________
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
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02-23-2007, 07:24 PM
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#5
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 10,125
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
Quote:
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Originally Posted by ziggy29
Actually, what I see is reversion to the mean.
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Me too.
__________________
Angels danced on the day that you were born.
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
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02-23-2007, 07:45 PM
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#6
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
I see that it takes >30 years to get the bottom of the lowest decile above the TIPs guaranteed return.
Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
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02-23-2007, 11:16 PM
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#7
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 4,459
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
Quote:
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Originally Posted by HaHa
I see that it takes >30 years to get the bottom of the lowest decile above the TIPs guaranteed return.
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It's actually more like 40 years, but who's counting? 
That was the first thing I looked at, which makes me a bear I think. But the long-term downside risk is small, and I think this chart makes a great case for going with 100% stocks during accumulation.
Interesting tidbits from the report: forward-looking risk premium is estimated at 3-3.5%; VIX is at an all-time low, so portfolio protection is cheap, but back-testing portfolio protection didn't look too good.
BTW, the picture is of UK return dispersion.
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
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02-24-2007, 10:14 AM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 12,880
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
A penis.
__________________
Al
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
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02-24-2007, 11:28 AM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
Quote:
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Originally Posted by TromboneAl
A penis.
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Sometimes, a cigar is just a cigar.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
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02-24-2007, 11:39 AM
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#10
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,450
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
Quote:
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Originally Posted by TromboneAl
A penis.
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if that is what you think one is suppose to look like, than mrs. T-Al, must be really sore... 
__________________
- Hurry! to the cliffs of insanity!
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
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02-24-2007, 12:02 PM
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#11
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: minnesota
Posts: 13,228
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
__________________
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No more lawyer stuff, no more political stuff, so no more CYA
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
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02-24-2007, 12:06 PM
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#12
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
Somewhat akin to a boar's. I'd borrow one to try for a few weekends if it were possible. Some curious lady would likely assent.
Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
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02-24-2007, 12:33 PM
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#13
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: minnesota
Posts: 13,228
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
Quote:
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Originally Posted by HaHa
Somewhat akin to a boar's. I'd borrow one to try for a few weekends if it were possible. Some curious lady would likely assent.
Ha
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You made me google boar's penis.
I need to get up off this couch!
__________________
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No more lawyer stuff, no more political stuff, so no more CYA
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
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02-24-2007, 01:13 PM
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#14
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
Quote:
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Originally Posted by HaHa
I see that it takes >30 years to get the bottom of the lowest decile above the TIPs guaranteed return.
Ha
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You could also say ~99% of the time your equity returns will be better then TIPs over 30 years.
It looks like the top of the bottom quartile crosses somewhere around 2% after 10-years. So you could also say that 75% of the time equities do better than TIPs after 10-years.
__________________
Retired early, traveling perpetually.
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
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02-24-2007, 01:51 PM
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#15
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,983
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Re: Poll: Investor Inkblot Test
Quote:
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Originally Posted by 3 Yrs to Go
You could also say ~99% of the time your equity returns will be better then TIPs over 30 years.
It looks like the top of the bottom quartile crosses somewhere around 2% after 10-years. So you could also say that 75% of the time equities do better than TIPs after 10-years.
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You are right; that's why it is a Rorschach Test.
Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
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