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View Poll Results: How do you think the next 10-20 years will play out?
Like the last 20 years, continued growth 15 19.74%
Like Japan, slow painful economic slide 10 13.16%
Like stagflation of the 70's 6 7.89%
Mostly sideways, like the last couple years 34 44.74%
The Great Depression will look like a picnic 1 1.32%
Big, but fast correction 1 1.32%
Like the end of the Roman Empire 4 5.26%
Like the end of the dinosaurs 1 1.32%
Repent! The End is Near! 4 5.26%
Voters: 76. You may not vote on this poll

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Re: Poll: predict our economic future
Old 08-29-2005, 08:47 PM   #21
 
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Re: Poll: predict our economic future

Quote:
Originally Posted by mikew
Cut-Throat
I didn't understand this. Does this exclude mutual funds, foriegners, business holdings? 88% seems awfully high. But with the savings rate so low...

Mike
Here was the blurb in the Vanguard Newsletter with footnote. Not a lot of explanation here, but you could check the source.
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Re: Poll: predict our economic future
Old 08-29-2005, 10:30 PM   #22
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Re: Poll: predict our economic future

I think I read that article/paper online and the 88% they refer to is individually held equities. ie - those not held by pensions, insurance companies, endowments, or other institutional investors.
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Re: Poll: predict our economic future
Old 08-30-2005, 12:01 AM   #23
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Re: Poll: predict our economic future

Well, don't forget that the 10% they talk about includes the almost-rich like many of the posters here.* *And few of us can afford to live on a 2% dividend yield.

In any case, the boomer retirement scare isn't as much about equity liquidation as it is about a general economic slowdown.* *And the stock market is really just a proxy for the economy.
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Re: Poll: predict our economic future
Old 08-30-2005, 01:25 AM   #24
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Re: Poll: predict our economic future

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In any case, the boomer retirement scare isn't as much about equity liquidation as it is about a general economic slowdown.
The Chinese and Indians aren't great consumers, and the richest 10% of Americans can't keep the economy humming with their purchases. If the other 90% trim their spending due to lack of resources as they age, corporations won't sell as many widgets.
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Re: Poll: predict our economic future
Old 08-30-2005, 08:41 AM   #25
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Re: Poll: predict our economic future

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Originally Posted by dory36
It's gonna go one way, then the other.

Index funds, 4%, and look at 'em every 12/31.

Otherwise, enjoy your ER.
Bingo! We have another winner on aisle 4%.
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Re: Poll: predict our economic future
Old 08-30-2005, 09:37 AM   #26
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Re: Poll: predict our economic future

Said "sideways" because I think the secular bear we're in will take a long time to play out. Boomers selling out to fund retirments will keep the market flat ... and Federal deficits and consumer debt needs to be addressed some how.
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Re: Poll: predict our economic future
Old 08-30-2005, 11:28 AM   #27
 
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Re: Poll: predict our economic future

Quote:
Originally Posted by wabmester
Well, don't forget that the 10% they talk about includes the almost-rich like many of the posters here.* *And few of us can afford to live on a 2% dividend yield.

In any case, the boomer retirement scare isn't as much about equity liquidation as it is about a general economic slowdown.* *And the stock market is really just a proxy for the economy.
That's why we need to open the floodgates and let all the immigrants we can in. We have got a Walmart economy now and plenty of $8 a hour jobs!
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Re: Poll: predict our economic future
Old 08-30-2005, 09:27 PM   #28
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Re: Poll: predict our economic future

They say that it is the savings of foreigners that is used to buy US Govt. debt. High priced oil is bound to impact the growing economies of India, China, etc. If these developing countries start struggling to pay their energy bills, we will definitely see an impact on our economy.

I wonder if my doctor will take a five gallon can of gas to pay for my flu shot this year?
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