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View Poll Results: What is your forecast for S&P 500 total return for 2016, including dividends
Positive, double digit (greater than 2208) 15 12.61%
Positive, single digit, greater than CPI (flat to 2082) 53 44.54%
Positive, but less than CPI (pretty much flat) 23 19.33%
Negative, single digit (greater than 1878) 20 16.81%
Negative, double digit (less than 1877) 8 6.72%
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Old 01-01-2016, 04:43 PM   #21
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Old 01-01-2016, 05:08 PM   #22
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I think it is going to be flat.
+1

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Old 01-01-2016, 05:10 PM   #23
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Recession in 2017.
My bones tell me 2016 or 2017. But what do my bones know?


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Old 01-01-2016, 06:04 PM   #24
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I don't quite get the double digit thing in the poll. 2044 * 1.1 = 2248 (versus 2208). I guess that it would only need to hit 2208 to be a 10% increase because dividend yield must be added, and that would equate to another 40 points?

I'll go out on a limb and predict 2560 (plus dividend yield). That's about 27%. 2016 will be a year with 'the next big thing'. Big things are lumpy, but do happen. Cold fusion, carbon nano tube energy storage, rampant inflation, 3D cat videos, it's impossible to tell.
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Old 01-01-2016, 06:20 PM   #25
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I'll play! Or perhaps "guess" is a better word for it.

It's been a long time since we've had a good, solid crash with any significant impact, so why not now? I'll say 1650.
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Old 01-01-2016, 06:49 PM   #26
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There was a crash in late 1987 but the market was up for the year.
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Old 01-02-2016, 06:46 AM   #27
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I'll guess at 2175, purely a guess.


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Old 01-02-2016, 07:48 AM   #28
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Old 01-03-2016, 07:59 AM   #29
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Yeah I am thinking single digits drop off. Housing is a positive in the economy. So that will keep things from falling too much. But commodity prices are dropping so that is showing not much demand. The economy just seems to be limping along. So after all the years of growth (pumping by the fed?), I think we are due for a downturn.
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Old 01-03-2016, 09:58 AM   #30
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Yeah I am thinking single digits drop off. Housing is a positive in the economy. So that will keep things from falling too much. But commodity prices are dropping so that is showing not much demand. The economy just seems to be limping along. So after all the years of growth (pumping by the fed?), I think we are due for a downturn.

Chris, you forgot to put the word "weak" in front of growth. Since a recession is defined in periods of 2 consecutive quarters we could even possibly muddle along above zero and have modest "rolling sector" recessions instead of a collective one.


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Old 01-03-2016, 02:56 PM   #31
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Tough call but I went with pretty much flat. Just too much crap going on in the world to have a positive outlook on economic growth of any kind.
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Old 01-03-2016, 03:04 PM   #32
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SP500 will finish at 2190


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Old 01-04-2016, 09:34 AM   #33
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Average 2077. It was either this, or put away Christmas decorations:
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File Type: jpg sandp2016.jpg (42.6 KB, 15 views)
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Old 01-04-2016, 09:38 AM   #34
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Reading all of these guesstimates put Diana Ross in my head... "Upside down, Boy, you turn me, Inside out And round and round."

I'm going with mildly positive - 2120. For no good reason other than I want it to be positive, but don't want to set my expectations terribly high
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Old 01-04-2016, 10:01 AM   #35
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I'll play! Or perhaps "guess" is a better word for it.

It's been a long time since we've had a good, solid crash with any significant impact, so why not now? I'll say 1650.
Looking at the first morning of trading of the new year... I sense a whee coming in the near future....

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Old 01-04-2016, 10:04 AM   #36
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Yeah, dow down today over 400 pts as of this moment. But who's watching?
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Old 01-04-2016, 10:10 AM   #37
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Looking at the first morning of trading of the new year... I sense a whee coming in the near future....

Well, I bought a house in cash last summer which involved a lot of selling in May, on my part. In retrospect, I am thinking that maybe that was sort of a wheee, in spirit anyway.

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Yeah, dow down today over 400 pts as of this moment. But who's watching?
Wow!! That's amazing!!! I'm not upset (yet), but will reserve that for later.

As of Saturday, I didn't need to do any rebalancing because my annual spending money withdrawal accidently rebalanced everything (how cool is that? SO cool IMO).

But if this keeps up, who knows?
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Old 01-04-2016, 10:23 AM   #38
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I'll say S&P finishes @ 2010

too many headwinds for a gain in 2016.
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Old 01-04-2016, 10:30 AM   #39
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I was way off in 2015, I guessed too high using the past to dictate the guess. I was tricked into believing years before a presidential election the market has historically risen more than not.

Sooo, sticking with this data I will say we are still going to move ahead, but with some world market instability, it's not going to be a 15% year...I will go with a 8.5% year which puts my GUESS at

2170
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Old 01-04-2016, 10:31 AM   #40
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Well, I bought a house in cash last summer which involved a lot of selling in May, on my part. In retrospect, I am thinking that maybe that was sort of a wheee, in spirit anyway.

Wow!! That's amazing!!! I'm not upset (yet), but will reserve that for later.

As of Saturday, I didn't need to do any rebalancing because my annual spending money withdrawal accidently rebalanced everything (how cool is that? SO cool IMO).

But if this keeps up, who knows?
I already initiated my rebalancing request on 1/1. No undos allowed .

But today is one of those days to run a dow tracker on the computer. Just for grins .
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